In a writing format utilized by Larry King that inspired indifference and mockery, and then emulated by many to even lesser fanfare … I bring you the second series of what is certainly to be many Sequential Non-Sequiturs!
Let’s start with some housekeeping on what the NCAA wants me and all other writers to refer to as the “NCAA® Division I Men’s Basketball Championship”, but what I will continue to refer to informally as “March Madness”. Having digested last weekend and tried to make sense of the upcoming Sweet 16 games, I’ve arrived at the notion that this tournament is now officially (at least by my limited authority) Kentucky’s to lose. A December last-second loss to Sweet 16 foe Indiana will assure their immediate attention does not stray beyond Friday night’s task, and while the Baylor-Xavier winner will be talented and tough enough to challenge the Wildcats, they will also be a decided underdog. It’s also possible that if Kentucky books their trip to New Orleans as I expect, no other No. 1 seeds will be there waiting for them …
… Examining those other No. 1 seeds, Syracuse has surprised me by how well they’ve played without Fab Melo, but Wisconsin is a tough out, and potentially following that with the winner of the Battle of Ohio (Cincinnati-Ohio St) makes surviving the East Regional a daunting task. … Michigan State’s West Regional is filled with formidable teams heading to Phoenix on a roll, no team left there (No. 3 seed Marquette, No. 4 seed Louisville and No. 7 seed Florida) would surprise me by advancing to the Final Four … North Carolina looked every bit the part of a National Champion on Sunday until Creighton’s Ethan Wragge decided that a mid-air forearm shiver to point guard extraordinaire Kendall Marshall was a great idea, resulting in the most talked-about fractured scaphoid bone in NCAA® Division I Men’s Basketball Championship history. (Seriously, where was the flagrant foul call on that? Wragge never went for the ball and was barely looking at Marshall as he mauled him, which is how injuries happen, and which is why the current rules are in place to discourage such thuggery. Peeves me that the refs let that slide.) Marshall’s return for Friday’s game against Ohio was “undetermined” as of Wednesday night, and if he can’t play, I’m “undetermined” on whether the Tar Heels can get past the No. 13 seed without the nation’s assists leader and no experienced backup point guard, much less through the Kansas-North Carolina State winner to get to the Final Four …
… Speaking of Kansas, I can’t help but feel they’ve all but punched their South Regional winning ticket to New Orleans, having survived their Purdue encounter to face the No. 11 seed Wolfpack, and either a point guard-less UNC or the No. 13 seed Ohio. Credit to the Jayhawks for doing just enough to beat the No, 10 seed BoilerHummels, who you remember (if you watched) had it all in front of them, a 3-point lead, the ball, a hot hand in Robbie Hummel, a senior point guard and 1:44 until Kansas inevitably choked away another close game to a double digit seed .. and in a Jeremy-Irons-as-Claus-von-Bülow–style reversal of fortune, unequivocally snatched defeat from the Jaws of Victory, allowing Kansas on the last three possessions to fast break dunk-breakaway layup-fast break dunk their way to the Sweet 16 … Xavier, much like Colorado and their “Buffalo Swooning” ways, won’t be able to fall behind by double digits against Baylor and get away with it like they did against Notre Dame and Lehigh … Consider me “not a fan” of the unis Cincinnati wore in their ugly-in-many-ways win over a Florida State squad who didn’t buy much rest for Leonard Hamilton’s critics with their performance … Florida surprised me with how easily they put away Norfolk State, but not with how well they are playing, winning last weekend by an average margin of 30 points/game. Marquette should decrease that average winning margin substantially, but I still anticipate the Gators making a return trip to the Elite Eight … Ending this column’s swing through the state of Florida, congratulations to South Florida for winning two games in March Madness before bowing out to this year’s Cinderella Ohio, but I certainly won’t miss them or their style of play, making Ohio’s deliberate approach look like the Showtime Lakers …
… If I had to rate the remaining 16 teams left in the tournament (ahem, excuse me) the NCAA® Division I Men’s Basketball Championship, Nos. 1 through 16, or “re-seed” them in effect based on their tourney play so far, I’d have it as follows: 1.) Kentucky; 2.) North Carolina; 3.) Ohio State; 4.) Michigan State; 5.) Florida; 6.) Marquette; 7.) Baylor; 8.) Syracuse; 9.) Wisconsin; 10.) Louisville; 11.) Indiana; 12.) Cincinnati; 13.) North Carolina State; 14.) Kansas; 15.) Xavier; and 16.) Ohio … which helps explain how tough the West Regional will be, and how unpredictable the South Regional could be …
… Elsewhere in the sporting planet, the Los Angels Lakers appear to stepped back into NBA Title contention with their trade for Ramon Sessions, who provides a big upgrade at the point guard position over Derek Fisher (younger, quicker and higher field-goal shooting and assist rates) without needing to change the dynamics of who controls the ball – that’s always going to be Kobe first and Kobe second … Thickening the plot is the acquisition of Fisher by Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City, providing a steady backup hand at point guard behind the kinetic but erratic Russell Westbrook. “Fish” could certainly have the chance to haunt the Lakers deep in the playoffs … These two teams, along with the Spurs, have established themselves as the Western Conference “Haves” with roughly 20 games left in the lockout-truncated regular season, separated by six games in the overall standings, while the “Have-nots” (everyone else) are failing to create any meaningful separation among themselves, with No. 4 Memphis only six games ahead of No. 13 Golden State … The Eastern Conference appear to also be a three-team race, as Orlando – last week’s winners of the trade deadline frenzy just by holding onto Dwight Howard – aims to challenge front-runners Chicago (despite Monday’s 85-59 blowout loss to the Bulls) and Miami, while six “Have-nots” battle for five remaining playoff spots (ahead of six more “Never-had-its”) and especially the No. 4-5 seeds, in efforts to avoid the Eastern Conference “Haves” in the first round of the playoffs …
… The Peyton Manning Saga ended one chapter and began another with his signing by the Denver Broncos on Tuesday. I’m fascinated that someone with fused vertebrae in his neck can still command a potential commitment of $96 Million, which in itself is a commentary on the overall depth of quality for NFL quarterbacking … Someone asked me recently if I thought Manning had “Brett Favre-like” drama potential, and at first I scoffed at the notion, but upon further review under the NFL instant-replay hood – a lost season, four neck surgeries, oft-contentious negotiations with the Indianapolis Colts that resulted in his release, a free agency tour that lasted longer than expected where Manning actually threw footballs in private workouts for three teams (Denver, San Francisco and Tennessee), and the Broncos signing that also abruptly ended the Denver Tim Tebow Era, all in the lens of lingering doubts over Manning’s prospects at being a.) healthy and b.) productive next season – I can see it … Apparently no hard feelings among other quarterbacks who were affected by waiting for the Peyton Manning domino to fall, as Tebow was quickly traded to the New York Jets (good luck with that Mark Sanchez), Alex Smith re-signed with San Francisco, and Arizona’s Kevin Kolb, who planned “on being a Cardinal for a long time” even before the Cards’ entry into the Manning Sweepstakes was rejected faster than Irwin M. Fletcher’s sweepstakes entry was cancelled by Ed McMahon, received his $7 Million roster bonus last Friday … NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell showed he was not messing around with the consequences for the New Orleans Saints’ tawdry pay-for-performance program now known as “Bountygate,” which will cost the Saints Head Coach Sean Payton for the entire 2012 season, their GM Mickey Loomis for half the season, two 2nd-Round draft picks, $500,000 in fines, and that’s before issuing penalties for the players who participated. While bounty schemes aren’t exactly a new phenomenon in any level of football, Goodell’s extensive punishments make a bold and necessary stand for the integrity of the game, as well as reminding the players they already receive ample compensation for their services in the post-2011 Lockout Era. No argument here with the severity of it all, and no argument either on the idea that Goodell has replaced the NBA’s David Stern as the Capo Di Tutti Capo, the preeminent league commissioner in all of sports …
… Watched a bit of “Frozen Planet” last Sunday in my efforts to decompress from four days of wall-to-wall basketball and I have to say Alec Baldwin has a particular talent for narrating every scene as if he was describing the action at a singles resort in the Bahamas, what with penguins “flirting”, cod “multiplying” and polar bears “chilling out by the pool with Mai Tais” (no he didn’t actually say that last phrase, but he might as well have) …Every time I watch “Holmes Inspection” on HGTV I make a note to myself, which says “Don’t Buy A House in Canada” … Finally saw “The Perfect Storm” on late night cable a while back, and to me it was like watching a two-hour extended version of the scene in “Caddyshack” where the Bishop (portrayed by the great Henry Wilcoxon) played golf in a driving thunderstorm with caddy Carl Spackler (Bill Murray) and was struck by lightning, only without the comical “There is no God” rejoinder in the country club bar afterwards … and on that depressing note, Happy Belated Vernal Equinox!
After Friday Morning’s (West Coast Time) first group of games, this year’s edition was shaping up to be one of the worst opening Thursday-Friday set of games in NCAA Tournament history … and then Norfolk State gave Friday’s proceedings the shot in the arm it needed after Thursday’s borefest, ending strong with the Lehigh-Duke upset, a rousing finish to the Purdue-St. Mary’s game and a tight Xavier-Notre Dame contest … The only Thursday games that remotely approached “Madness” were Syracuse-UNC Ashville, Wichita St-VCU (technically by seed, an upset, but not really), and UNLV’s late but ultimately short comeback on Colorado … New Mexico-Long Beach State and Vandy-Hahvahd were somewhat entertaining, and Marquette and Gonzaga looked good in their blow-out wins, but most of the Thursday games were duds, and most of those that were supposed to be close, were not … Low scoring wasn’t helping the entertainment value either, too many teams looked plain nervous on Thursday and forgot all pretense of strategy, and I can’t remember seeing so many back-and-forth exchanges where teams go up & down the floor and NO ONE scores for long stretches … This was confirmed when Friday night on ESPN’s “College Gameday” wrap-up show, Rece Davis said only five (5) teams scored 80 or more points, which is the lowest amount of teams to do so in the Round of 64 since the NCAA tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, but more on why that was below …
Syracuse isn’t long for this tournament, I see it ending for them Saturday morning to Kansas St, and if for some reason not then, the Vanderbilt-Wisconsin winner should paint the floor with them … Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but Baylor now has the pole position to face Kentucky in the South Regional Elite Eight, and should that game occur, Baylor’s talent level alone gives them a puncher’s chance … I’m still kicking myself for picking Connecticut to beat Iowa State, I knew it was a bad match-up for UConn, I knew they had no one who could check Royce White for 94 feet, and I bought in to the mojo of the Defending Champion with NBA talent and a Hall-Of-Fame coach back on the sideline, coming off a solid performance in the (Too) Big East tourney, maybe even wanting a Kentucky-UConn game too much …
Florida State on Friday played for 30 minutes like Florida State of old (read: lackluster in big moments), and I could hear the critics of Leonard Hamilton cracking their knuckles in front of their keyboards and trying to determine which variant of the “See this is why no one thinks Hamilton is a good coach” refrain they were going to resuscitate, but then FSU stopped fooling around in the last 10 minutes and played defense like very few in this field can when it counted. Credit to the Bonnies and to Andrew Nicholson for being the best player on the floor, they would beat a lot of teams in the field the way they played today, but FSU showed why I have them coming out of the East Regional …
Meanwhile, the Frank Haith critics have their moment in the sun, even though Missouri didn’t really play all that bad, and any remaining game will have to go far to challenge that one for Game of the Tournament …The fact that two of the five 80-point-plus scoring teams were in this game helps to illustrate why scoring is down across the board … The way Mizzou lost is somewhat ironic, as I downgraded their overall potential for advancement (I thought they would only win this game) because I thought they would have trouble playing their preferred transition tempo as NCAA Tournament progressed, when games tend to slow to a grinding pace … When in fact, they lost playing their preferred tempo to a Norfolk State team able to maximize their size advantage in the paint (with everybody’s favorite Irishman Kyle O’Quinn) and make defensive stops when it counted … All of which may reinforce the trending defensive approach at the highest levels of the college game, and why we saw so many games in the 50s and 60s instead of the 70s and 80s the last two days, as a faster, more offense-minded approach like Missouri’s (No. 6 in the NCAA in Scoring Offense at 80.3 ppg entering the Tournament) allows too many teams in the parity of today’s college game to stay within reach when the stakes are high, resulting in what we saw today with only the 5th & 6th No. 15 seeds in NCAA history winning their first games, and no “Blue Blood” or “Aspiring-to-be-a-Blue Blood” program wants to be on the losing end of that scenario … Speaking of “Blue Bloods”, what can one say about Duke … I could say a lot, but as a semi-neutral observer I will limit myself to the following observations … Ryan Kelly would have been useful today for the Blue Devils … All year I thought Duke depended too much on Austin Rivers to bail them out, and while it worked for them against North Carolina in their 85-84 comeback win in February, I thought it would come back to haunt them in March, just not this early in the NCAAs … but it did … Lehigh did not flinch, even as they missed FTs down the stretch and committed dumb fouls (some would them call “Duke-bail-out fouls”, but I digress), but they kept breaking Duke’s press and taking it to the rim when other teams would have backed out and run more clock, and to me that’s why they won by five instead of one or two, or possibly losing …
Just couldn’t pull the trigger on Ohio, wish I had, but I thought Michigan’s style on both ends of the floor would be tough for any team to handle. As it turned out, it allowed any team that can solve their 1-3-1 zone – in this case, the Bobcats – to grab an early lead and stay ahead the entire game, while Michigan’s 3-point offensive style made it exceedingly difficult for them to come back when they shot 7-23 beyond the stripe, missing their last five 3PT attempts and 8 of their last 10 … North Carolina is going to need John Henson sooner than later … When people said Michigan State’s Draymond Green had a triple-double Friday night, my first thought was that they were talking about his food order at In-N-Out Burger, not his performance vs. LIU-Brooklyn (24 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) …
People have been saying all year that the Pac-12, in polite talk, “sucks”, and while that has been generally true (I see you California), I would argue most of West Coast Basketball “sucked” this season. The Mountain West is 1-3 in the NCAAs and I believe has been overrated all year, with their only win New Mexico’s tightroper over a No.12 seed from the Big West, “The Beach”, who, like the WAC’s New Mexico State and the Big Sky’s Montana, failed to live up to “Upset Alert” billing … Gonzaga was one team that bucked this trend in blowing out West Virginia, who was Thursday’s winner of the “WHAT WAS THAT?!?” Award, while Team Australia a.k.a. St. Mary’s comeback was a.) left until too late in the game and b.) stopped it 40 seconds too short after getting a one-point lead, and Colorado advanced despite performing what has now become their patented 2nd-half “Buffalo Swoon” (complete with late Carlon Brown Tomahawk Dunk) to end the game – fortunately for their sake, UNLV looked the gift horse in the mouth like Arizona did in the Pac-12 Final when Colorado tried to hand the game to them – but I can’t see more than one team from the Pacific and Mountain time zones (4-9 overall so far in the NCAAs) playing next week, if any, which is a sad statement … Meanwhile, “American Reunion” looks late-night-cable worthy … And you know you’ve seen the same ad too many times in too short a period when you want to scream “The HOPPPAAAAAHHHH!!!” at passers by … While I’m at it, I’d like to thank Temple and South Florida for setting the game of basketball back another 50 years, collectively Friday’s winner of the “WHAT WAS THAT?!?” Award …
As far as my bracket goes … I’m, I’m not good at this … My West Coast Bias blinded me again, with only 18/32 “Round of 64” picks right and 9/16 of my Sweet 16 picks still dancing … In particular, the South and Midwest regionals are in shambles, with only my respective Final Four picks Kentucky and North Carolina alive … in prepping my bracket, I did a version that I dubbed the “Conservalternative”, picking many more favorites and “safer” bets, and even that one only went 21/32 … As it turned out there were 10 seeded upsets in the Round of 64 (games where lower seeds beat higher seeds, from No. 9 over No. 8 to No. 15 over No. 2), and I only picked one of them correctly, while picking five others that did not pan out, so looking back I had blind spots for teams I actually liked to watch and wanted to win … but enough bracket bitching, I’m certain others feel the same pain … at least all six of my “National Champion Contenders” are still in play, as well as six of my seven “Darkhorses” from my “Ripe Preview”, so I have that going for me … which is nice …
As boring as the Thursday games were collectively, most of the games they produced for Saturday sparkle with the promise of legendary March Madness games of yore … I‘ll be especially curious to see a.) how ugly Kansas State makes their game against the ‘Cuse, b.) whether Gonzaga catches Ohio State by surprise despite all who have fallen before the “Zags” since 1999 c.) how Murray State handles a tougher, more talented version of themselves in Marquette, d.) if Wisconsin is able to dictate the pace against Vandy, e.) if VCU Version 2.0 looks just as dangerous against another top team in Indiana like V1.0 did for every game until the Final Four, f.) how Kentucky handles Iowa State’s White, g.) if Colorado tries another “Buffalo Swoon” against former Big 12 foe Baylor (who I think won’t be so kind in return) , and h.) if I can fight off a Corned Beef-and-Cabbage-fueled coma to see New Mexico try for their first Sweet 16 appearance in program history against a surging Louisville Saturday night … Sunday’s slate appears less exciting, although North Carolina-Creighton (if only to watch former Ames (IA) Senior HS teammates Harrison Barnes and Doug McDermott face off), Georgetown-North Carolina State (if only to watch two teams I had long gone play each other), Florida-Norfolk State (a game I think will be almost as close as Norfolk State’s win over Missouri was) and Florida State-Cincinnati (to see if either team breaks 50) will command my interest … and on that note, Happy St. Patrick’s Day!
Now, a Ripe, Very Mature preview – as opposed to last weeks Premature Preview, posted minutes after tip-off of the first Second Round games, and let’s face it, you’re probably reading this as games have already been played – of the 2012 NCAA Basketball Tournament. Before I get to anything else, here is my bracket, which is guaranteed to be completely off-base as it has been for the last three years. I’ll follow up on some of my thoughts from last week’s preview, and make some other sure-to-be-nearly-right predictions about this edition of March Madness.
National Championship Contenders – Last week I said that I would be shocked if the National Champion doesn’t come from a three-team group Kentucky, North Carolina, or Syracuse, but with the suspension of Fab Melo and the actual field set, I now doubt Syracuse can win it all. The Selection Committee did Kentucky and North Carolina no favors either with the bracket; Kentucky might have to face Defending Champion Connecticut in Round of 32, a team that can play with Kentucky all over the floor with talent to match down low as well, then potentially Indiana in the Sweet 16, one of two teams to beat them all year. North Carolina has an easier path in the earlier rounds, but a potential meeting with Kansas looms in the Elite Eight, and they were put on the same side of the Final Four bracket with ACC Champ Florida St, who has beaten them twice this year. I still think the pool of teams that can win it all is small, but I’ve doubled it to six (6) teams, in order of my perceived likelihood:
- North Carolina
- Kentucky
- Florida State
- Syracuse
- Kansas
- Michigan St
Final Four/Title Game Darkhorses – I named quite a few of these teams last week, but with the actual bracket I’ve juggled this list a bit. While each of these teams has a fatal flaw that I believe will prevent them from winning a National Championship, here are seven (7) darkhorse candidates to reach the Final Four and possibly the Title Game, all the while scaring the bejeezus of every team they face. Each team listed has good-to-great guard play, abundant senior leadership and contribution, is highly efficient offensively and/or defensively, and performs at least one aspect of the game that causes opponents problems at a very high level, whether it’s taking care of the ball, causing turnovers, crashing the offensive boards, blocking shots, defending the 3-pointer or hitting their free throws. Plus, they all have potentially advantageous draws, or winnable match-ups with higher seeded teams (which helps explain why I have Florida in my Final Four):
- Florida
- Missouri
- Louisville
- Marquette
- Baylor
- Ohio State
- Vanderbilt
Potential Sweet 16/Elite 8 Cinderellas – There appears to be more legitimate candidates for this now that the actual brackets were announced, and that’s with some teams like Murray State and VCU drawing bad Round of 64 or potential Round of 32 match-ups, but you never know when the clock will strike Midnight for these 11 teams:
- Wichita State
- New Mexico State
- Nevada-Las Vegas
- South Dakota State
- Xavier
- Memphis
- Saint Louis
- Long Beach State
- Belmont
- St. Mary’s
- Gonzaga
Underachievers Capable of a Deep Run – Last Week I called these the “LSU” teams, and have already identified most of the teams in this field that fit these parameters, but let’s flesh it out further. These are teams that all a.) come from a High-Major conference, b.) lost 10 or more games, c.) are seeded No. 8 or worse, d.) have already proven capable of beating top teams while scaring others and e.) despite lacking a certain cohesion, are very talented and have difference-makers that not only scare the crap out of opponents, but can win games if they get hot:
- Kansas St
- West Virginia
- Iowa State
- Connecticut
- Alabama
- North Carolina State
- Purdue
- Texas
Feast or Famine Candidates – These are Top 3-6 seeds previously not mentioned and either rely heavily on underclassmen, suffered a key injury, and have otherwise dangerous match-ups in their first games. Survive those however, gain some confidence and rhythm, and much more is possible for these five (5) squads:
- Duke
- Georgetown
- Indiana
- New Mexico
- Wisconsin
Tom Petty Teams (“Freeee … Free Falling!”) or Otherwise Headed in the Wrong Direction – Overall inconsistency, a drastic change in performance from earlier in the season, surprising player unrest, suspension or benching, whatever the cause these four (4) teams are “valleying” (as opposed to “peaking”) at the wrong time (and yes, I’ve included a National Championship Contender above):
- Notre Dame
- Syracuse
- San Diego State
- Georgetown
I Have No Idea What to Make of These Teams – Self-explanatory, nothing would surprise me, and it’s not for a lack of trying to watch them and figure them out on the part of yours truly:
- Michigan
- Colorado
- Virginia
- Temple
- Cincinnati
- Southern Mississippi
Teams Many Think Could Be an Upset Pick, That Probably Won’t – While these underdogs have bite in them, I don’t think they received any sort of favorable match-up, and thus sadly will watch the pumpkin carriage fly by:
- Detroit
- Creighton
- Ohio
- Davidson
- Colorado State
- Brigham Young
- South Florida
- St. Bonaventure
- Harvard
- Montana
And Now … Five Fearless Archetypal Predictions …
This Year’s “Texas Longhorns 2010 Memorial Shambles Team” is … No One. Although Syracuse losing in the semis of the Big East Tournament and suspending their starting Center makes me think they lose a lot earlier than they probably should, especially with a potentially bad match-up with Scary Frank Martin’s scary Kansas State squad in the Round of 32. Duke isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire either, but they’re nowhere near the train wreck that 2010 Longhorn squad was.
This Year’s “Kansas Jayhawk Memorial Second Round Upset Departure Team” is … Kansas. No shortage of candidates this season, but who else is better than the original? If they have the unfortunate task of playing a talented, disciplined, good shooting St. Mary’s team that is extremely well-coached by Randy Bennett (why hasn’t some Pac-12 program snatched him up yet is one of my great sports mysteries) in the Round of 32, I’m not entirely convinced that Kansas has enough guard play beyond Tyshawn Taylor to carry them through what could be an ugly encounter. Plus, we’ve seen this play before. Heck, even Purdue has enough talent to make the hearts of Rock Chalk Jayhawk Nation skip a few beats. Border War enemy Missouri could take up the mantle as well, I have them losing to Florida in the Round of 32, and I maintain my belief that their preferred tempo won’t be found past their first game (unless Florida engages them this way, and/or Murray State or BYU somehow make it to a Sweet 16 match-up, but I won’t hold my breath). Syracuse could certainly qualify here too, but with Fab Melo’s suspension the thrill is gone, and Ohio State may sneak in here as well, but I think they’ve recovered from their February swoon and are playing to their exceedingly high talent level. So could Duke, and Michigan State for that matter, but they should have enough to get to the second week.
Is There a Potential “Butler” This Year? … Yes. I place before you The Running Rebels of Nevada-Las Vegas. Colorado will be a tough match-up in their first game, but UNLV has already proven capable of beating the best, with their 10-point vanquishing in November of then No. 1 North Carolina. They have enough size, depth, athleticism, versatility to match well with anybody, and first-year coach Dave Rice has returned the Rebels to their running ways. Duke and Baylor are solid but have glaring flaws and are eminently beatable, and they won’t fear an Elite Eight meeting with Kentucky or anyone that could come out of the West Regional. UCLA transfers Mike Moser and Chace Stanback give them enough star power to get to the First Monday in April and come within a whisker of winning it all – I do think North Carolina would exact a measure of revenge should that game occur. In the very same regional, Wichita State also fits this profile, but they would play Kentucky in the Sweet 16 and I just don’t see them getting past Kentucky, if they survive their first two games. Although should they “Shock” the world (See what I did there? The Shockers?), they did beat UNLV by 19 earlier this season.
This Year’s “George Mason/VCU” Could Be … Memphis or St. Mary’s. Of the potential “Cinderellas” I named above, these two are the most likely to reach the Final Four in shocking fashion. Which is to say, it’s not likely at all, but they’re both well coached, have High Major talent, have potentially favorable draws and do certain things at an extremely high level – Both are Top 35 in NCAA scoring offense, Memphis is extremely efficient offensively and defensively, ranking in the Top 10 in both Field Goal Percentage offense (#5) and defense (#10), while St. Mary’s ranks in the Top 15 in assists per game (#13) and rebounding margin (#9) as well as #26 in Field Goal Percentage offense. Plus their pathways to the Elite Eight are ripe with upset potential both by them and by other teams on their side of the regional, always a pre-requisite to these types of tournament runs, as it’s sometimes better to be lucky than good.
This Year’s “Gonzaga” Is … Long Beach State. In my opinion, the most likely double-digit seed to make the Sweet Sixteen, maybe even the Elite Eight if Michigan State is out of the way, is Dan Monson’s 49ers. And he should know all about being “Gonzaga”, as he WAS “Gonzaga” in 1999, crashing the High-Major Party 13 years ago with their run to the Elite Eight and narrow loss to eventual Champion Connecticut as head coach. Teams like Butler, George Mason, Davidson and VCU all owe him and that squad a debt of thanks breaking through the ceiling and showing the possibilities of challenging any team on any tournament night. This LBSU squad played the toughest Non-Conference Schedule in the country according to almost RPI metric I’ve seen – they will fear no one. Casper Ware is one of the better point guards and scorers in the field, and the rest of the squad is deep in athleticism and versatility. Combine this with the reality that New Mexico and Louisville aren’t any deeper in their rotations or as athletic, and that Michigan State could very well lose before the Sweet 16, and “The Beach” may find the glass slipper fits quite nicely.
Finally, My Final Four and Champion …
I remain steadfast to what I said last week, that the 2012 NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship comes down to the two best teams I saw play all year. Much rests on the wrist of John Henson, but if he can play with little to no hindrance, I believe North Carolina can capture their third title in eight seasons, over a supremely talented but overly young and potentially distracted Kentucky squad (You think John Calipari questions God why Mike D’Antoni resigned from the Knicks now instead of the end of the season? I do). Rounding out the party is the State of Florida, with a dangerous Florida State squad that will push North Carolina to the limit in their Final Four match, but ultimately prove why it’s difficult to beat the same team three times in one season, and my surprise guest in New Orleans, the plucky Florida Gators who will go down fighting for the fourth time this season to SEC mate Kentucky.
In the now immortal words of Bart Scott … I can’t wait!
(I can’t think of anything basketball related that rhymes with “country”)
With T-minus 10 minutes before the NCAA Tournament Selections are announced, here’s what we know, what I know, what I think I know, and my best guesses at what will be unveiled to the world.
First, we know that the automatic bids, all 31 of them have been decided, from the conference tournaments, as follows:
ACC – Florida St
America East – Vermont
Atlantic-10 – St. Bonaventure
Atlantic Sun – Belmont
Big 12 – Missouri
Big East – Louisville
Big Sky – Montana
Big South – UNC Asheville
Big Ten – Michigan State
Big West – Long Beach State
Colonial – Virginia Commonwealth
Conference USA – Memphis
Horizon – Detroit
Ivy – Harvard
Metro Atlantic – Loyola (Md.)
Mid-American – Ohio
Mid-Eastern – Norfolk State
Missouri Valley – Creighton
Mountain West – New Mexico
Northeast – LIU Brooklyn
Ohio Valley – Murray State
Pac-12 – Colorado
Patriot – Lehigh
SEC – Vanderbilt
Southern – Davidson
Southland – Lamar
Summit League – S. Dakota State
Sun Belt – Western Kentucky
Southwestern Athletic – Mississippi Valley State
WAC – New Mexico State
West Coast – St. Mary’s
Second, that leaves 37 at-large bids. Looking at all the metrics I could, the various RPI lists out there, Ken Pomeroy’s data, the Sagarin rankings, and a couple of the more prominent bracketology sites, here are the teams that I know are locks, listed by conference (number of teams in parentheses):
ACC (3) – North Carolina, Duke, Virginia
Atlantic-10 (3) – Temple, St. Louis, Xavier
Big 12 (4) – Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State
Big East (7) – Syracuse, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Marquette, Georgetown, Connecticut, West Virginia
Big Ten (5) – Ohio St, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue
Missouri Valley (1) – Wichita State
Mountain West (3) – San Diego State, Nevada Las Vegas, Colorado State
Pac-12 (1) – California
SEC (3) – Kentucky, Florida, Alabama
West Coast (1) – Gonzaga
That’s a total of 31 teams that should be safe, which would leave six (6) at-large spots. Here’s what I think are the teams competing for these spots, again listed by conference:
ACC (2) – North Carolina State, Miami (Fla.)
Big 12 (1) – Texas
Big East (2) – South Florida, Seton Hall
Big Ten (1) – Northwestern
Colonial (1) – Drexel
Conference USA (1) – Southern Mississippi
Metro Atlantic (1) – Iona
Pac-12 (2) – Washington, Arizona
SEC (3) – Mississippi State, Tennessee, Mississippi
WAC (1) – Nevada
West Coast (1) – Brigham Young
That’s 16 teams competing for the last six spots. Sparing all the hand-wringing and nit-picking, here’s my best guess as to the six (6) teams whose bubbles won’t burst today, in order from safest to least safe:
Brigham Young
Southern Mississippi
North Carolina State
Texas
South Florida
Washington
Drexel, Iona Mississippi State and Arizona would top my list of the last teams not selected. I just can’t see the committee leaving out the Pac-12 regular season champion, and I can’t recall the last time they left a regular-season champion of a so-called power conference out of the field. We’ll know starting in about 10 minutes.
I used to hate conference tournaments in NCAA Basketball. Especially when automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament became the domain of conference tournament winners instead of the regular season conference champion. I didn’t like the idea that a team who won 3-4 games in a row could be rewarded with the bid over the team that had done the best over a 14-18 game conference schedule. I didn’t like the proletariat minor conferences “stealing” bread (and NCAA bids) from the bourgeoisie major conferences when their regular season champions – the ones good enough to be invited regardless of their results in the conference tournament – lost in their tournament to teams that would never have been invited were it not for the automatic bids. I didn’t like that they were a blatant cash grab by the conferences all too eager to take money from programming–starved sports networks.
But, I’ve gotten over it.
I now think they are in some ways more fun than the actual NCAA Tournament, as it’s “do or die” for so many more teams, particularly the semifinals and title games have that “NCAA Tournament” feel. For years I’ve called them “Slim’s Last Chance”, as in “The Chances of Arizona State Winning the Pac-12 Tournament are Slim and None with Slim Heading Towards The Door.” In most cases, the entire conference makes the tournament regardless of where they finished during the regular season, with finish reflected in their seeding. Now almost every team that underachieved, or just failed to achieve, has one last chance at glory and redemption. Tuesday night for example, a 14-18 Western Kentucky team as the No. 7 seed beat No. 5 seed 18-13 North Texas for the Sun Belt Conference Tournament Championship, and did so with an interim coach who replaced a mid-season firing. Not only is that heroic, games like these are must-see TV for basketball junkies as well as exciting for casual observers flipping channels between repeats of “NCIS”.
In effect, it’s added an extra week and a half to March Madness, these tournaments serving as de facto preliminary rounds for the NCAA Tournament and weeding out 300+ hopeful invitees into 68 with a golden ticket to The Dance. It’s also why I’m not in favor of expanding the tournament to 72 teams, or 96 or 128, or whatever Hall of Fame Coach Bob Knight last suggested he would do, which was either 256 teams or all of them. We pretty much now have that as it is, and I love it.
While play in 31 conference tournaments began February 27 with the Big South Conference (and 14 conference tourney winners already have their ticket punched as of today March 8), it began in earnest Tuesday for the College Basketball’s six “Power Conferences” (or what football observers call the “BCS Conferences”), starting with the (Too) Big East Mega Extravaganza, with five rounds in five days. For ease of reference, I will include links to the brackets and results for each of the discussed tournaments below, as well as ESPN’s “Men’s Championship Week” front page. By no means will this be a comprehensive breakdown of each tournament, just a few things to watch for as you are flipping channels these next four days. Without further ado …
Big East – Held annually in The World’s Most Famous Arena, Madison Square Garden, two rounds of this 16-team, five day marathon of slugfests have already been staged, with the only “seed upset” (a lower seed beating a higher seed) so far is defending Big East and NCAA Champion Connecticut beating West Virginia, a No. 9 seed over a No. 8 that hardly qualifies as an upset. Otherwise it’s gone to script, with some juicy match-ups in the quarterfinals today (Syracuse-UConn, Marquette-Louisville). West Virginia’s and Seton Hall’s second round losses places them both squarely on the NCAA Tournament “bubble”, while the remaining eight teams appear to be safe. Connecticut has won seven Big East Tournament games in a row dating back to last season, but their task today against No. 1 seed Syracuse (ranked #2 in both major polls) could be too high a mountain to climb for this young team. I’m picking Syracuse to win it, even though the No. 1 seed has only won it twice in the last nine seasons. Notre Dame might have a good shot, considering they are the only team to have beaten Syracuse all season, and Marquette might be as hard-nosed a squad as there is in the country; I just think Syracuse has too much for the remaining teams, and Coach Jim Boeheim is no stranger to winning this tournament with five titles.
Pacific 12 – Play began yesterday at the cavernous (read: mostly empty) Staples Center in Los Angeles, and like the (Too) Big East, has mostly stuck to script with only one seed upset yesterday, No, 9 seed Oregon State over No. 8 seed Washington State. Unlike the (Too) Big East, most observers who predict the NCAA field (a.k.a., “bracketologists” as in the study and prediction of the NCAA tournament brackets) contend that the Pac-12 has no safe teams, or “locks” for the NCAAs, with Washington, California, Oregon, and Arizona needing to pile up wins to merit an at-large bid, while the others have to win the tournament to get invited. As I believe any remaining team can beat any other remaining team, what we have ourselves is an old-fashioned crapshoot. In which case I‘ll go with the team that has been playing the best basketball of late, and that is No. 3 seed Oregon, winners of 11 of their last 14 and losing those other three by a combined nine points. No. 1 seed (and defending tourney champ) Washington lost their last game at UCLA last Saturday, choking away their opportunity to clinch the regular season title. No. 2 seed Cal has lost their last two games and faces the same Stanford team that just beat them last Sunday, allowing Washington to back in to the regular season title. Arizona, the No. 4 seed, is down to a 6½-man regular rotation, having suspended starting point guard Josiah Turner while backup point guard Jordin Mayes is still dealing with foot injuries that have severely limited his play over the last month. No. 5 seed UCLA could be the party crasher here (and since when has anyone accused one of the most storied programs in NCAA history of being a party crasher?); Since Sports Illustrated’s exposé on the Bruins’ struggles over the last three seasons (a good read, if hardly earth-shattering), they have had an “Us-against-the-World“-vibe. Plus, they’re basically at home in LA, and talent hasn’t been their biggest issue this season, chemistry and discipline have. Should UCLA make the Pac-12 Finals though, they will be playing their fourth game in four days, and as General George S. Patton once said, “Fatigue makes cowards of us all” – at which point I would expect the discipline and chemistry issues to resurface against a very well-coached Oregon squad.
Big 12 – Wednesday was also the opening round of the Big Twelve (Minus Two) Tournament, with two games between the bottom-four conference finishers yielding little surprise other than continuing the strong run of No. 9 seeds, this time Texas A&M beating No. 8 seed Oklahoma. The Top 5 seeds – in order Kansas, Missouri, Iowa State, Baylor and Kansas State – appear to be NCAA locks, and are just playing for a better seed in the Dance. With so much on the line for the only remaining “bubble” team, Texas could be the darkhorse pick as the No. 6 seed, starting their closing argument for NCAA Tournament consideration with plucky No. 3 seed Iowa State, potentially followed by facing a Missouri squad they barely lost to (67-66 in Austin) at the end of January for a spot in the finals. However, it’s really easy to predict one more “Border War” in the Final between two-time defending tourney champion Kansas and Missouri, to be held practically on the border between the states of Kansas and Missouri in Kansas City, MO, in what could be the last game between the two schools for the foreseeable future. So easy in fact, I will predict exactly that, with Kansas prevailing, sending their heated rivals off into the Southeastern Conference sunset and locking up the fourth NCAA No. 1 seed.
Big 10 – Having held the Super Bowl barely a month ago and still dealing with the shocking departure of their future Hall Of Fame Colts Quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis plays host to the Big Ten (Plus Two) Conference Tournament beginning today, and if you ask me, it’s a bit of a let down for “The Circle City”. In the wake of those successive postpartum depression cycles, the fact that the Big 10 Final is usually the last game televised before the NCAA Selections are announced is cold solace from what is regularly a boring affair; In its relatively short 14-year history, only four of the 14 title games have ended with single-digit winning margins, and only two of the 14 tournament titles have been won by a team outside the Top 3 seeds (which is aided by the fact that seven of the 14 title game losers were No. 5 seeds or below, so at least they have that going for them, which is nice). The only real intrigue for this year’s edition is whether or not No. 7 seed Northwestern can end their life-long NCAA Tournament Appearance slump and win their way in for their first bid ever – I don’t think they will win the Big-10 Tournament, but a win or two could go a long way towards their at-large bid prospects, starting with No. 10 seed Minnesota, losers of six of their last seven. No. 11 seed Nebraska also makes their Big-10 Tournament debut, but I don’t expect them to stay for more than one song with No. 6 seed Purdue on deck. In keeping with historical trends, I will pick No. 1 seed Michigan State to avenge their loss to Ohio State (the No. 3 seed and two-time defending Big-10 champion) last Sunday and win their first Big-10 Tournament Title in 12 years.
SEC – Home to this year’s Final Four, starting today New Orleans will also host the Southeastern Conference Tournament, albeit at the home of the New Orleans Hornets (New Orleans Arena) and not the home of the New Orleans Saints (Louisiana Superdome, where this year’s Final Four is held). Although technically older than the venerable ACC Tournament, having started in 1933, no tournaments were held between 1953 and 1978, presumably because they stopped being competitive as Kentucky won 13 of the first 18 Tournaments, and 8 of the last 9 prior to 1953. Cutting to the chase, Kentucky has won 27 (!) SEC Tournaments, with the next highest program Alabama, with six (but none since 1991). This year Kentucky is the No. 1 seed and the No. 1 ranked team in the country. Kentucky won the SEC regular season title by six games (they only play a 16-game conference schedule). I’m convinced Kentucky is the most talented team in the country, with no less than six future NBA players on their roster. Not surprisingly, I think Kentucky will win this SEC Tournament, even though some of the “experts” say 29-1 Kentucky would benefit from another loss before the NCAAs (a line of thinking I’ve never bought into, but whatever). Since that’s not much fun, I’ll further predict that No. 3 seed Vanderbilt is the tackling dummy for Kentucky in the final. No. 6 seed Mississippi State, No. 5 seed Alabama and oddly enough No. 2 seed Tennessee have work to do to secure their bids according to most bracketologists, but winning one game should secure bids for each of them.
ACC – The oldest continuously-held tournament of the power conferences (since 1954), the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament is distinctive in that its Tournament Champion is recognized as its “Conference Champion” (along with winning the automatic NCAA bid since 1961), where as the other five conferences above distinguish “Regular Season Champions” from “Tournament Champions” (as I think they should, but far be it from me to suggest the ACC change that). This year’s edition begins today in Atlanta, which is only the fifth time since 1990 that it’s been held outside the state of North Carolina (but far be it from me to suggest the ACC change that). Every year it seems the world expects Duke and North Carolina to meet in the Final, but last year’s Duke win over North Carolina was only their second meeting in the Finals since 2000. What usually does happen is that either Duke or North Carolina makes the Final (which has happened 14 of the last 15 years) and plays a lower seed, as last year was the only time in the last 10 years that the top two seeds played each other for the ACC Title. That refrain continues as North Carolina (No. 1) and Duke (No. 2) are the top two seeds again, and at first glance, going with the “chalk” (favorites) appears to be the smart money. However, the state of Florida is poised to throw a monkey wrench into those plans. No. 6 seed Miami (Fla) is playing for their NCAA lives, starting today with No. 11 seed Georgia Tech (ostensibly the host team, but they are terrible this year). The Hurricanes own impressive wins over both Duke and No. 3 seed Florida State in the regular season, and should they win today, they’ll face Florida State tomorrow. Florida State meanwhile is the only team this year to have beaten both Duke and North Carolina, the latter by 33 points in January. Duke looms on that side of the bracket, but their third-leading scorer Ryan Kelly will miss the ACC Tournament with a sprained foot, already depleting a thin rotation. While I think North Carolina makes the Final, the survivor of the pending Battle of Florida – I’ll go with Florida State in a squeaker – will beat Duke and will win their first ACC Title on Sunday.
I just realized I’ve picked four No. 1 seeds to win in the power conference tournaments, and there’s no way that actually happens, but C’est La Vie, I’m sticking to my guns. There are several other interesting tournaments to follow if inclined, foremost among them the Mountain West Tournament in Las Vegas starting today, where the top four seeds are NCAA locks and should win their first game, and after that it’s anyone’s guess in a tournament with a history of barnburners. Yesterday’s First Round of the Atlantic 10 Tournament went to plan with all top eight seeds remaining, but like the Pac-12 it’s a crapshoot from there as any of the top six seeds could win the tournament in my estimation, and everyone but No. 1 seed Temple and No. 2 seed Saint Louis needs to win it all. Saturday is really the crescendo of Championship Week, beginning 9:00AM MST with the America East Final between No. 1 seed Stony Brook and No. 2 seed Vermont, switching back and forth with the Conference USA Final starting at 9:30AM MST, and continuing through the day with the ACC, SEC, and Big 10 semifinals, then the Pac-12 and Big 12 Finals and catching a bit of the MAC Final leading up to the grand finale of the Big East. As someone who admits to West Coast Bias, I also like to catch the Big West and WAC Tournament Finals, especially since they are usually broadcast late in the evening (as they are this year, 8:00 PM MST and 10:00PM MST respectively on Saturday night, ESPN2).
There’s a couple Finals I’m forgetting, but the Championship Week link above will spell it all out. I’m sure by then I’ll be bleary-eyed from the frenzy of Saturday’s 15-plus hours of tournament action, but I’ll be watch through cracked eyelids if I must to see if any “Slim” gets their last chance.
Bobby True 