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‘Twas 10 minutes Before Selection Sunday …

March 11, 2012
… And all through the country,
Not a creature was stirring.

(I can’t think of anything basketball related that rhymes with “country”)

With T-minus 10 minutes before the NCAA Tournament Selections are announced, here’s what we know, what I know, what I think I know, and my best guesses at what will be unveiled to the world.

First, we know that the automatic bids, all 31 of them have been decided, from the conference tournaments, as follows:

ACC – Florida St

America East – Vermont

Atlantic-10 – St. Bonaventure

Atlantic Sun – Belmont

Big 12 – Missouri

Big East – Louisville

Big Sky – Montana

Big South – UNC Asheville

Big Ten – Michigan State

Big West – Long Beach State

Colonial – Virginia Commonwealth

Conference USA – Memphis

Horizon – Detroit

Ivy – Harvard

Metro Atlantic – Loyola (Md.)

Mid-American – Ohio

Mid-Eastern – Norfolk State

Missouri Valley – Creighton

Mountain West – New Mexico

Northeast – LIU Brooklyn

Ohio Valley – Murray State

Pac-12 – Colorado

Patriot – Lehigh

SEC – Vanderbilt

Southern – Davidson

Southland – Lamar

Summit League – S. Dakota State

Sun Belt – Western Kentucky

Southwestern Athletic – Mississippi Valley State

WAC – New Mexico State

West Coast – St. Mary’s

Second, that leaves 37 at-large bids.  Looking at all the metrics I could, the various RPI lists out there, Ken Pomeroy’s data, the Sagarin rankings, and a couple of the more prominent bracketology sites, here are the teams that I know are locks, listed by conference (number of teams in parentheses):

ACC (3) – North Carolina, Duke, Virginia

Atlantic-10 (3) – Temple, St. Louis, Xavier

Big 12 (4) – Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State

Big East (7) – Syracuse, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Marquette, Georgetown, Connecticut, West Virginia

Big Ten (5) – Ohio St, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue

Missouri Valley (1) – Wichita State

Mountain West  (3) –  San Diego State, Nevada Las Vegas, Colorado State

Pac-12 (1) – California

SEC (3) – Kentucky, Florida, Alabama

West Coast (1) – Gonzaga

That’s a total of 31 teams that should be safe, which would leave six (6) at-large spots.  Here’s what I think are the teams competing for these spots, again listed by conference:

ACC (2) – North Carolina State, Miami (Fla.)

Big 12 (1) – Texas

Big East (2) – South Florida, Seton Hall

Big Ten (1) – Northwestern

Colonial (1) – Drexel

Conference USA (1) – Southern Mississippi

Metro Atlantic (1) – Iona

Pac-12 (2) – Washington, Arizona

SEC (3) – Mississippi State, Tennessee, Mississippi

WAC (1) – Nevada

West Coast (1) – Brigham Young

That’s 16 teams competing for the last six spots.  Sparing all the hand-wringing and nit-picking, here’s my best guess as to the six (6) teams whose bubbles won’t burst today, in order from safest to least safe:

Brigham Young

Southern Mississippi

North Carolina State

Texas

South Florida

Washington

Drexel, Iona Mississippi State and Arizona would top my list of the last teams not selected. I just can’t see the committee leaving out the Pac-12 regular season champion, and I can’t recall the last time they left a regular-season champion of a so-called power conference out of the field.  We’ll know starting in about 10 minutes.

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From → Basketball, Sports

One Comment
  1. 67 of 68 teams correct, only Iona sneaking in ahead of Washington (my last team in) and Drexel, my first team out. All 31 of the locks I called also made it. Guess that makes em an amatuer bracketologist.

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