Technically, this is the perfect time to release a “2017 Top X Recruit List”, as it’s the end of the 2016 November signing period, and almost a full calendar year before many of these 2017 kids can sign Letters of Intent. They are now front and center on the college recruiting stage, so in that sense it is right on time.
The reasons I call this list “premature” (not the least of which is I like to hedge my bets), are as follows:
- I’ve only been able to watch highlight videos for most of the top prospects in 2017. There’s only so much I or anyone else can determine from a highlight video. Anyone can look like a world-beater in a highlight video; Heck, shoot it right, I can look like the second coming of Dennis Johnson in a highlight video (I’m pretty crafty). So, I don’t trust them, and I don’t put much stock into evaluations solely based on reviews of highlight videos (Which probably means you should stop reading right here, but I digress). Finding unedited game tape for younger prospects is difficult (even on YouTube), and I haven’t watched most of these kids live on TV/Internet or in person yet. Give me the travel budgets of Scout.com’s Evan Daniels or 247 Sports’ Jerry Meyer, and this amateur recruitnik would go watch prospects play anywhere or anytime.
- Most of the highlight videos I watched as a result were either from their Sophomore year of high school, or from summer grassroots (aka AAU) tournaments and camps after their Sophomore year. Soooooo much time before they show up on a college campus (if at all, or overseas). You could seriously write in almost every Top 150 prospect’s Scouting Report “Needs/Areas To Improve: Strength”. Most difficult aspect of scouting these kids, as I’ve been told by those who do it for a living, is projecting how their bodies will turn out. Some max out early, some hit late growth spurts which completely change their game (Anthony Davis was a middling 6’2” guard until an 8-inch growth spurt between his Sophomore and Senior years in high school), some bulk up too much, some stay too thin and can’t add that weight. Never mind how some skills are innate, while others can be vastly improved upon with hard work. So it’s a crapshoot, an incomplete and changing picture at best.
- Honestly, until recently, most of my recruiting attention was on the Class of 2016. Ask me what I think about the Cream of the 2016 crop, prospects like Josh Jackson, Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Dennis Smith, Terrence Ferguson or Lauri Markkanen, who I’ve watched play full games on live TV for either their prep or national teams, and I can provide breakdowns with confidence in my assessment. Right now, not so much with 2017, but give me time.
- Because of the first three reasons above, I’ve had to rely on other scouting reports and databases as well to compile this list. That will have less influence as we go on.
- I like to hedge my bets. This list will undoubtedly change next time I post it. Like I said, not the least.
- Finally, and somewhat related to the first two reasons, is at this point, what often stands out to observers are athleticism & size for projected position, and the obvious skills like scoring ability or shot-blocking. I look for things such as motor, court vision, rebound anticipation, quickness with the ball, footwork, the lost art of shooting (and their related mechanics), decision-making and any inkling of defensive fundamentals and desire. These aspects of a player’s game are either difficult to assess (especially in a highlight video) or take longer to develop, requiring repeated viewing live over time – which for me has not happened.
With caveats out of the way, I will list 10 guys, with quick observations on them, followed by what is sure to be a rotating cast of “Others Worthy of Consideration”. On with the show (Heights and weights from Rivals.com) …
1.) Michael Porter, Jr, SF, Tolton Catholic HS, Columbia, MO (6’8”, 190) – Listed as 6’9”, 210 pounds on 247 Sports, and measured at 6’10” this summer at the Nike Skills Academy (I’m thinking that’s in shoes), if he grows another inch or two, he’s the next Kevin Durant (and I hate making those types of hot-take hyperbolic comparisons, but there it is). Dead-eye shooter with NBA range and nearly unblockable, can put the ball on the floor and score from mid-range or at the rim. Fantastic athlete; Will be the early favorite for the McDonald’s All-American Game Dunk Contest. Willing defender. One of the few kids that I’ve actually seen play in something other than a highlight video – check out footage of a one-on-one battle with 2016 Top 10 prospect Dennis Smith from the Stephon Curry Camp. My favorite prospect in the 2017 class, my guess is he makes Kansas, Duke or Kentucky very happy for nine months before being a Top 3 NBA pick. His younger (and taller!) brother Jontay is a rising 2018 prospect as well.
2.) DeAndre Ayton, C, Hillcrest Prep, Phoenix, AZ (6’11, 225) – Originally from the Bahamas before moving ton San Diego, his city should actually read “Parts Unknown”, with rumors swirling about the future of Hillcrest Prep. Gained wide notoriety last summer when he posted 17 points and 18 rebounds (!) in an exhibition game against the University of North Carolina. Best rim protector in all of prep basketball. Developing post game, thrives on his height and athleticism edge over his competition. So athletic and smooth, you forget sometimes you’re looking at what other recruiting websites list as a 7’ Center. If I had to hazard a guess at this point, I doubt he ever plays a minute of college basketball, and I have concerns about his motor, but undoubtedly Ayton is one of the better Center prospects in the last decade if he puts it all together.
3.) Troy Brown, Jr, PG, Centennial HS, Las Vegas, NV (6’6”, 195) – Some scouts suggest he’s not a true Point Guard, that might become a Small Forward instead, but I love what I’ve seen of his game, possibly to an irrational level. Freak athlete, excellent court vision and passer, gets to the rim whenever he wants, needs to continue to improve on his shooting – his mechanics don’t look that far off to me. I’d want him on the ball offensively, regardless of the position he defends.
4.) Trevon Duval, PG, Advanced Prep International, Dallas, TX (6’2”, 189) – Prototypical NBA combo/lead Guard prospect. According to the 247 Sports Composite rankings, most scouts consider him the best point guard prospect in the class, and they might be correct, but for me he looks to shoot a bit too much (despite not being a great shooter), and needs to tighten his handle. Does everything else really well, a John Wall-ish blur with the ball, and will be a fantastic college one-and-done lead guard.
5.) Billy Preston, F, Advanced Prep International, Dallas, TX (6’9”, 220) – No, not that Billy Preston. Originally from Los Angeles before going the prep school route. Probably has the most NBA-ready body at this point, projected as a face-up Power Forward due to his sheer size, but I think he’s just a large and powerful wing, at least in college. Elite athlete, plus shooter, good passer, solid rebounder, overly ball dominant, not sure he’s interested in defense (after all, nothing from nothing leaves nothing), but a future NBA lottery pick to be sure.
6.) Wendell Carter, PF/C, Pace Academy, Atlanta, GA (6’10”, 246) – Mr. Wendell. He’s the #1 ranked player in both the 2017 247 Composite rankings, and the Rivals 150, #2 on Scout and ESPN … I’m not seeing that on film. I mean, he’s a great prospect, does everything well, already has a great Power Forward body and motor, but he’s not crazy-athletic, not awesome at any one thing, and in my amateur opinion is not the best current player or prospect with upside in 2017 (although he is young for his class, won’t turn 17 until April of next year). This slot feels about right.
7.) Brandon McCoy, C, Cathedral Catholic HS, San Diego, CA (6’11”, 220) – Truthfully, on current ability he’s not a Top 10 player – Maybe Top 25 – so this is completely about his tremendous upside. He has elite physical tools, extremely mobile and athletic, and although he’s raw offensively, his jumper has mid-range potential, and he’s as active and capable defensively as anyone in the class. As he adds muscle and develops his offensive game, he should round into an elite NBA Center prospect; the Real McCoy, if you will.
8.) Zach Brown, C, Miami Senior HS, Miami, FL (7’1”, 256) – Consensus 5-star rated and ranked #20 overall in the 247 Composite, his rankings span the lower end of that range (#17 on 247 & Rivals, #18 on ESPN, #26 on Scout). I’m still trying to figure out what’s not to like relative to higher ranked Center prospects; Scout for example ranks him as their 9th best Center prospect and last 5-star player. He’s 7’1”!! A throwback Center, not an extreme athlete, but is truly large, light off his feet, and more than mobile enough. Very good rebounder with good hands, very long, an excellent motor (most guys his size & build don’t have that) and an improving post game. He has things you can’t teach, and most of his deficiencies can be improved with work and repetition. Factor in how long it takes for big men to develop, and where he is already, and I don’t understand why he’s not a consensus Top 10 player. Plus, he has his own band! (Not really).
9.) Jarred Vanderbilt, F, Victory Prep, Houston, TX (6’8”, 200) – Superb athlete, great motor, does all the little things well, somewhat the converse of Preston in that he projects as a Power Forward once he fills out, but right now has the body of a wing. Highest defensive upside of the non-Centers in this class; However, his shooting range, and much of his offensive game, is a work in progress. Kinda, sorta, maybe might have some similarities in his game to former University of Arizona star and Brooklyn Nets rookie Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Like McCoy, his upside is through the roof.
10.) D.J. Harvey, SF, DeMatha HS, Hyattsville, MD (6’7”, 180) – Might be the most versatile and complete offensive player I’ve watched in the 2017 Class (#23 in white in this video, #1 in your hearts). Highly skilled, can score in a myriad of ways out to 3-pt range, equally adept in transition and the half-court. Has the physical tools to be an above-average defender, but like most his age isn’t asked to or otherwise has yet to show it. Not a superfreak of an athlete like most other Top 10 wings in this and past classes, but has enough athleticism to augment his high skill level.
OTHERS WORTHY OF CONSIDERATION: Mo Bamba, PF/C, Westtown School, Westtown, PA (6’11”, 205 – Mobile, skilled big man, favorite name in the class); Austin Wiley, C, Spain Park HS, Birmingham, AL (6’10”, 240 – Auburn commit is a similar prospect to McCoy in both current ability and upside); Kevin Knox, F, Tampa Catholic HS, Tampa, FL (6’7”, 195 – Silky smooth and long combo forward); Gary Trent, Jr., G, Apple Valley HS, Apple Valley, MN (6’4”, 180 – Maybe the best shooter in the entire class, his Father was the original “Shaq of The MAC”).
Has Jordan Spieth stepped forward as the next golfing generation’s standard bearer? Is Spieth the “next” Tiger? These are foremost among the many questions Professional Golf fans and followers have asked themselves during and after Jordan Spieth’s barnstorming triumph at the 2015 Masters.
Spieth either set or shared Masters course records at the end of every round, carding a record 28 birdies in 72 holes and going from the youngest runner-up in Masters history last year to the second-youngest Champion. I’ll let others place him in the historical context or draw the obvious, unavoidable Tiger Woods comparisons that began even before Spieth had actually won, but as Jim Nantz pointed out in Sunday’s broadcast, he’s played eight (8) competitive Masters rounds and has never been out of the top five on the leaderboard.
It’s easy to wonder after this blitzkrieg by the World’s best, whether Augusta National will break out the earth movers and raid the nursery for pine saplings again to Spieth-proof the course much as they tried to Tiger-proof the course in the 2000s. Singling out singular talents for special countermeasures isn’t a new phenomenon. In the 1980’s the Detroit Pistons created the “Jordan Rules” as an approach to contain and limit Michael Jordan’s effectiveness (further detailed in Sam Smith’s 1992 book “The Jordan Rules” about the 1990-91 Chicago Bulls championship season), and it worked, for a while. Debate has been ongoing as to whether Tiger-proofing Augusta actually worked, or whether it actually existed, or whether after last year when Bubba Watson won his second Masters in three years Augusta National should be Bubba-proofed. What is clear is that Tiger won two more Green Jackets (2002, 2005) after significant changes were first made to Augusta in 2002, but none since 2006 when a second round of alterations to lengthen the course and tighten landing areas limited favorable outcomes for Tiger’s usual scrambling game.
So could Augusta National similarly initiate a new set of “Jordan Rules”, a forthcoming era already suggested by the L.A. Times’ Bill Plaschke? Probably not, unless as one golf writer noted Augusta wanted to “dig ponds in the middle of fairways and ban putters.” Spieth isn’t cut from the same cloth of long-ball bombers or left-handed legends that have dominated Augusta’s “curvilinear camouflage” over the past 18 years. He won this week by being the most complete golfer on the course, an efficient jack-of-all-trades that allows him to overcome being outdriven by many of his competitors with his accuracy and clutch short game, zigging where others are zagging during the PGA’s current long ball era.
Although Sunday’s chase was enjoyable to watch, there was very little suspense for home viewers as well as those in the gallery munching on a $1.50 pimento cheese sando. Spieth’s second shot at the 13th sealed the deal as far as I was concerned. The announcers were prognosticating a common sense approach of laying up short of Rae’s creek on the Par 5, but instead Spieth fired right at the stick and put it within 12 feet of the hole. The fact that he missed the eagle putt that followed didn’t matter nearly as much as the gumption of the prior shot, showing he had the right stuff to become the 5th wire-to-wire Masters Champion.
It was the quality of those chasing Spieth – how many normally victorious efforts were posted – that made his dominating performance all the more impressive. Phil (he can go by one name now I think) played championship-level golf, a miraculous sand save on the 15th for eagle punctuating a steady but otherwise not spectacular enough 69 on Sunday to earn his 10th all-time runner up finish in a Major, tied (-14) with Justin Rose. On 70 of the 78 previous Masters Tournaments, both of them would have been walking back up the 18th hole for a sudden-death playoff. In other years the Sunday 66s shot by Rory McIlroy (-12) or Hideki Matsuyama (-11) would have won it outright more than three of every four times. I never saw Ian Poulter (World Ranked #26) or Paul Casey (#36) Sunday & they both finished T6th at -9 with Dustin Johnson (#6 and the second-most significant potential redemption story this week), all earning a trip back next year.
Then there was Tiger. His interview with CBS’ Bill McAtee, where Tiger claimed to pop a wrist bone back into place after swinging his club into a tree root on the 9th, was the capper to a promising but decidedly mixed bag of results for Tiger. Woods’ last hole Sunday was a microcosm of his week in Augusta, barely missing a par-saving putt after finding only his second fairway all day. Finishing T17th (-5) with Sergio Garcia, I tend to side with those who say this performance demonstrates Tiger can still contend for Majors in the future, rather than demonstrating he can’t, but to win at Augusta his game will have to continue transformation into the strategically specific point-to-point target golf that Spieth was so adept at all week.
Unsurprisingly, from my recliner none of the also-rans sounded all that happy about their performances in post-round interviews, at best barely even satisfied. That’s the thing about these pro golfers, when they see someone post a better number, they always think they could have done more.
But the immutable truth is, at 21 year 8 months, and 16 days old, Jordan Spieth is really, really good at golf. And this year, there was nothing the rest of the field could have done about that. We’ll see what Augusta National has to say about it next year and beyond.
With 13:17 left in the Second Half, Duke Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski called a timeout, his Blue Devils staggering, down by nine, 48-39, in the NCAA® Division I Men’s Basketball National Championship Game. His alpha dog Freshmen, Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow, were on the bench in foul trouble with three (3) each. In the crowd there were crazed Cheeseheads dressed in red & white striped overalls jumping around like they were at a Slipknot concert. Newly minted Naismith Player of the Year Frank “The Tank” Kaminsky was well on his way to a 21 point/12 rebound performance and his Badgers were on the brink of a National Title. Duke needed someone to assert themselves and stop the bleeding, as a National Championship was slipping from their grasp. Out of the time out, Blue Devil Nation turned its lonely eyes to … Grayson Allen?
If you read that and said “Who?”, you’d be forgiven by everyone but his family & his teammates. Undoubtedly next in a long line of proud and publicly loathed Duke heels, Allen scored Duke’s subsequent eight (8) points out of the time out – en route to a career high 16 points – to singlehandedly bring the Blue Devils back into contention. Then, just as he had four months ago in Duke’s win in Madison, Tyus Jones took over, combining with fellow freshmen Allen for 23 of Duke’s game closing, title-clinching 29-15 run. The Apple Valley, Minnesota native and Final Four Most Outstanding Player (becoming only the fourth Freshman to do so) had 19 of his game-high 23 points in the Second Half, none more important than his dagger three with 1:24 left to put Duke up by eight (8) as Wisconsin once again had no answer for Jones, falling short in the rematch 68-63, this time costing the Badgers a National Championship.
On Wisconsin? More like slightly Off Wisconsin. Whereas the converse had been true for most of their season, Wisconsin’s whole on this night was less than the sum of their parts. Frank The Tank was his normal unstoppable self, but I don’t think he saw enough of the ball. Sam Dekker did most of his damage on second-chance points at the rim, scoring 12 points but was ineffective from the perimeter, shooting 0-6 from three and only scoring four (4) of his points after the half. While Bronson Koenig was steady if unspectacular, Traveon Jackson had an uneven game, shooting 1-7 from the field, while Josh Gasser played a scoreless 36 minutes despite (or because of, you decide) being poked in the eye early on. Aside from Kaminsky and Nigel Hayes (a tidy 3-4 from three on his way to 13 points), no one else provided a consistent offensive threat in the half court, nor was there the poise offensively or patience defensively that vanquished John Calipari’s Wildcats to their ole Kentucky home on Saturday.
Speaking of Wildcats, allow me to take a moment to discuss their alleged year. Villanova went out like a domesticated tabby rather than a feral feline, losing in the Round of 32 to a talented but unbalanced North Carolina State squad that would lose their next game; A jump shooting team can’t find water from a boat (19/61 from the floor, .311 FG%) and loses, go figure. Arizona couldn’t seem to put two good halves of basketball together in the Tournament before being shot out of the Staples Center in the Elite Eight by Wisconsin’s epic three-point barrage, leading Head Coach Sean Miller to tell ”bandwagon fans” to go root for their rival on Twitter. Then in the Final Four, Kentucky’s “Pursuit of Perfection” (or whatever lame-ass slogan ESPN created to hype Kentucky’s chase of an undefeated season) came crashing down Saturday as the more experienced and efficient Badgers prevailed over another team of kittens. Not the worst call I’ve made, and considering I pegged Duke as one of the few teams that could win it all, I don’t feel so bad.
But enough about me. Back to the actual winners. Duke won this title, Krzyzewski’s 5th which ties him with Kentucky’s Adolph Rupp for No. 2 all-time behind John Wooden, with defense. In six 2015 NCAA Tournament games Duke allowed an average of 56.3 points per game. Heading into the NCAA Tournament, Duke was ranked 57th in the country in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, with an AdjD of 96.1. After their six NCAA games, Duke had worked all the way up to 12th, improving their season-long AdjD to 92.3, a figure that would have had Duke meeting all three Championship Tests prior to the tourney. Their average defensive rating – same idea as KenPom’s AdjD stat, an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions calculated by Sports Reference.com – was 88.6, a number that would have been good for 6th overall in that metric. And how about the young’uns? Freshmen scored 60 of Duke’s 68 points and played 112 of 200 total minutes, which is not only amazing, but something I doubt even Coach K would have ever foreseen in its antithesis of the Duke Basketball Experience (emphasis on experience). Who says old coaches can’t learn new tricks? Michigan’s Fab Five eat your heart out!
Now, some in the media (and many in the Twitterrazzi) have suggested that Duke may have had some help from the guys in the black and white stripes. Notably, the reviewed out-of-bounds call with 1:53 left in the game that gave the ball to Duke, despite the largest television audience to see a National Championship since 1997 clearly seeing that the ball went off Justise Winslow’s unmanicured fingertips. Maybe the refs were looking at the replay in low def, or maybe they really are vision impaired as all hecklers have decried for time in memoriam. Apparently the NCAA head official claimed the refs at the game did not have the same viewing angle as the television audience, which only raises more questions (Some of mine include “Why not?”, “Why the hell have replay then?”, and “Da fuq?!?”).
In the bigger picture, even a less-than-sporting Bo Ryan couldn’t stop himself from complaining about the officiating in both the NCAA post-game presser and the CBS post-game interview, claiming there was “more body contact in this game than any game” Wisconsin played all season. Sure, over the last 13:17, Wisconsin was whistled for nine (9) fouls to Duke’s three (3), and Duke enjoyed an 11-1 advantage in free throw attempts, making eight (8) of them. But is that really evidence of an officiating bias? Or, is it a sign of Duke’s increased aggression when facing a 9-point deficit, taking almost everything to the rim in a smart strategy to draw contact and create more scoring opportunities? I know my answer to that question. Duke had flipped the script after that fateful timeout, overcoming Wisconsin’s lead while being the team in significant foul trouble, and never say never, but I still think Duke, up by five (5) at that time, was winning that game regardless of that call. The die had already been cast.
Besides, reversing that call wasn’t going to help Wisconsin answer the Tyus Jones problem. Going into Monday night, it was fair to ask how Wisconsin was going to handle Duke’s two standout freshmen. Turns out, it was the other two freshmen they had to worry about all along.
I’ve heard more than one pundit say in the lead-up to tonight’s NCAA® Division I Men’s Basketball Championship Game between Duke and Wisconsin in Indianapolis to ignore the results of their December 3 battle in Madison, WI, won by Duke 80-70 in what was then and is not the most impressive win of the season by any team. I’m not going to suggest history will repeat itself tonight – in fact, based on how each team has played in the tournament, I give the slight edge to Wisconsin, as does the betting public apparently, favoring Wisconsin by one (1) point 15 minutes before game time – but there are some lessons to be learned from what happened four months ago.
1.) Sam Dekker was a Non-Factor In the First Game – Having watched him build what may become a NCAA Final Four MOP résumé already, I have a hard time believing that he will only go 2-5 for five (5) points and four (4) rebounds in the rematch. He is Wisconsin’s most important player tonight, and if he can continue his shooting streak from outside – 7/9 (.778) from 3 the last two games, each one more clutch than the prior – I’m not sure Duke has an answer.
2.) Duke Shot 65% From The Field in Madison – To be exact, 30-46 for .652 FG%. I don’t see that happening again, but for Duke to win I would expect them to be north of 50% tonight. And even then, as Arizona found out in the Elite Eight, that might not be enough.
3.) Tyus Jones Took Over in Crunch Time Last Time – I remember watching that game on TV and thinking this was Tyus Jones’ coming out party that night, scoring 6 of Duke’s last 15 and 22 overall for the night with six (6) rebounds and four (4) assists as he was the best player on the floor that game and was the main reason Wisconsin never got closer than 5 points over the last four minutes. Another good game from him will go a long way for the Blue Devils.
4.) Jahlil Okafor and Frank Kaminsky Battled to a Standstill – The two best players this season in all of college basketball both played well last December, Okafor going for 13p/6r while spending part of the game in foul trouble, while Kaminsky had 17p/9r in eight more minutes (35 to Okafor’s 27) of game time. If Frank The Tank can get Okafor in foul trouble again tonight, that has to favor the Badgers more than it did in Madison.
5.) Traveon Jackson Was and Is The X-Factor – Jackson single-handedly kept Wisconsin in the game, going for 25 points and making all eight (8) of his Free Throws. Since then he missed several weeks with a foot injury, but has returned off the bench in the NCAAs in a slightly different role during the Tournament to provide some toughness, poise and rest for the now starter at point guard Bronson Koenig. I doubt he’s the same influence on this game, and that might not bode well for Wisconsin, but I do think he has to come in and be a defensive presence on the perimeter against Jones and Quinn Cook.
So who wins this battle of two of the top three most efficient offenses in College Basketball? Does Coach K get his 5th National Title? Or does Bo Ryan get his 5th (the prior 4 at Division III Wisconsin-Platteville)? I think the Badgers win Bo Ryan’s 1st Division I Title, by the same margin of their last two games, seven (7) points in what should be a 40-minute, up and down affair.
Although in my bracket (long since in the garbage can) I only picked one of the Final Four teams correctly (Kentucky, like almost everyone else did, talk about a “gimme”), from the 10,000 feet perspective, I feel a lot better about how I thought this tournament would play out compared with how it has. Three of my Championship Contenders – Kentucky, Wisconsin and Duke – made it to Indianapolis along with a Darkhorse Michigan State squad that no one should have been surprised by considering a No. 7 seed won it all last year, considering Tom Izzo’s tournament history, and considering how badly the NCAA Tournament Committee selected the East Region (in my opinion). I’m still quite confident one of the Contenders will be atop the podium Monday Night; Some quick thoughts with the games about to start …
(7) Michigan State vs. (1) Duke, East vs. South (3:09pm PST, TBS) – With all apologies to whomever may be offended by what follows, this game is clearly the undercard to the Main Event of Kentucky v. Wisconsin, a rematch of a State Farm Champions Classic game November 18 that Duke won by 10 and in which Michigan State never led. Honestly, this is probably the worst or least talented of Tom Izzo’s seven (7!) Final Four teams at Michigan State since 1999, and from what I saw they really should have lost to Louisville in regulation last Sunday. It’s fair to assume that the Spartans were underseeded by a couple of lines, that they should have been closer to a #5 seed given the metrics and how well the Big Ten has shown in this tournament with Wisconsin across the isle. But is it fair to say that Michigan State’s time at the Dance is about to end? I think whichever team controls the tempo will win this game; Duke by far plays the fastest pace (AdjT of 65.8, which is 130 spots ahead of Michigan State in the Pomeroy rankings), so it would likely be a mistake for Michigan State to go uptempo, and although a halfcourt game would appear to favor Michigan State, they had no answer for Jahlil Okafor in November, and I don’t think they have one now. All this talk about Kentucky having nine (9) McDonald’s All-Americans, and Duke actually has eight (8) themselves, so the talent edge to me will bear out. In other words, I don’t think the owner of the Golden Gate Hotel & Casino will be cashing in his 50-1 ticket on Michigan State winning the title. A better bet might be picking what will happen more during this game: Crowd shots of Magic Johnson reacting to the game action, or Jim Nantz, Bill Raftery and Grant Hill referring to Lourawls “Tum Tum” Nairns, Jr. by his full name? I’d take the Magic crowd shots straight up.
(1) Wisconsin vs. (1) Kentucky, West vs. Midwest (5:49pm PST, TBS) – Clearly American Sports’ best illustration of the Irresistible Force (Wisconsin’s No. 1 AdjO) versus the Immovable Object (Kentucky’s No. 1 AdjD) since Super Bowl XLVIII. Last year in this very space analyzing last year’s Wisconsin-Kentucky Final Four matchup, I had called Wisconsin’s offense “old school”, saying it looked “ like B-reel from the production of the movie ‘Hoosiers’ …” and breaking down exactly what the “Flex” aims to accomplish with spacing and player movement. After watching their 1985 Villanova-esque second half shooting demonstration – hitting 10 of 12 threes in the Second Half – against Arizona in person last Saturday (with what can only be described as a sense of ennui), and hearing all season in the NBA how important spacing and player movement has become with the success of teams like San Antonio, Atlanta and Golden State, I have to ask: Has the Old School become the New School? In the Ken Pomeroy Era (since 2002, when he started accruing his efficiency data), this year’s Wisconsin is by a wide margin the greatest offense in modern history, with an AdjO of 127.5 points per 100 possessions (having risen almost 3.0 ppp during the NCAA Tournament). Notably, Kentucky right now has the second-best defensive efficiency over the same time period (only John Calipari’s 2009 Memphis team had a lower AdjD). Will it take a repeat performance from last week beyond the 3-point arc for Wisconsin to do what 38 other teams have failed to do this season? In last year’s Final Four barnburner, Wisconsin hit 8-20 from three and lost by 1. Frank Kaminsky, the likely consensus National Player of the Year, is still the toughest individual matchup in the Final Four. All that said, this year’s Kentucky team is deeper and more talented than last year’s, and I think these Wildcats get one step closer to history in another nailbiter.
Bobby True 