UEFA’s 2012 European Soccer Championships, or as every soccer fan calls them, The Euros, begins today, and for many hardcore soccer fans, this is their favorite international tournament. I don’t really blame them. Sixteen of Europe’s best teams play hotly-contested matches for three-plus weeks (the first 12 days consist of two games a day) for continental bragging rights, and while cream often rises to the top (Spain in 2008 and France in 2000 come readily to mind), it may be the one tournament that any team in can win, witness the Great Danes of Denmark in 1992 or 150-1 shot Greece in 2004 (an event I call “The Death of Soccer”, but we’ll save that for another time).
It’s also become quite accessible to the novice or casual American fan, as thanks to ESPN in the United States we’ll be able to see every game live and in HD. So if you’re thinking of catching a game or two before the Final on July 1, or if you’re like me and plan to DVR or live watch every game, here’s a handy guide to enhance your viewing pleasure
First off, some quick facts, as well as the ESPN website where you can get group standings, schedules, results as well as team rosters, profiles and tactics in their additional coverage.* This year’s tournament is co-hosted by Poland and Ukraine, with the Opening match in Warsaw, Poland (featuring Greece vs. Poland at 9:00AM PST), the Final in Kiev, Ukraine (participants to be determined), and the whole of the tournament to be played among four cities in each of the two countries (eight venues overall). Qualifying was comprised of 247 matches among every eligible European teams (except for the hosts Poland and Ukraine) that began one month after the 2010 World Cup ended. Each of the 16 teams will play three games in group play, with the top two teams from each of the four groups advancing to an 8-team knockout stage of quarterfinals, semifinals and the Final; this has been the format since 1996. As said above, Spain is the defending Champion (as well as the defending World Cup Champion), and are currently the 5:2 odds on favorite for the 2012 Title, which puts them in line to be the first nation to pull off a Euro-World Cup-Euro trifecta. The Euros were first held in 1960 and have been held every four years since, in the middle of the World Cup cycle. The Soviet Union won the first Euros, and since then nine different nations have won the 13 tournaments held (compared to the World Cup’s 8 different winners over 19 tournaments), with only Germany/West Germany (3 altogether), Spain (2) and France (2) to win more than once, and the 2012 tournament involving all nine of those past winners (if you count Russia in the place of the U.S.S.R.). Among the more pressing subplots is the spectre of racism at the tournament games, an ongoing concern at the highest levels of soccer that has only drawn increased attention from a BBC documentary called “Euro 2012: Stadiums of Hate” and renewed fears that FIFA’s “zero tolerance” policy on racism will be tested during Euro 2012 as reports of “monkey chants” at the Netherlands’ public training session surfaced on the eve of the tournament’s kickoff.
Next is a quick – some would say haphazard – look at the four groups in the first round of play, concentrating on the overall zeitgeist of each team entering the tournament and a quick assessment of their prospects.
Group A – This is easily the most mysterious and least-scrutinized of the four-team groups, with no big tournament favorite and no clear-cut group favorite within … Russia plays an aggressive, high-tempo style under Dutch coach Dick Advocaat, and has plenty of attacking talent in Andrey Arshavin, Alan Dzagoev, Pavel Pogrebnyak (say that name five times fast), Konstantin Zyryanov and Roman Pavlyuchenko, but arrive as one of the oldest teams in the tournament facing questions whether their “Golden Generation” of players (12 players from their 2008 semifinalist squad return) has enough left to go deep in the tourney … Feast or famine describes the Czech Republic’s potential, having made scant noise internationally since making the Euro 2004 semifinals. The Czechs have one of the best goalkeepers in the world in Petr Cech and established talents all over the pitch in Michal Kadlec, Vaclav Pilar, Tomas Rosicky and Euro 2004 Golden Boot winner Milan Baros, yet a lack of quality finishing in qualifying as well as an overall lack of depth cloud their prospects … Greece bears the hopes of an economically depressed nation and couldn’t survive past the group stage in their 2008 defense of the Euro 2004 Title, but yet again promise not to dazzle with their defense first, defense second, defense third and hope-to-score-a-set-piece-goal style, which might actually be enough to nab a spot in the quarterfinals. One other thing is for sure – announcers will have a lot of fun with the player names (and if you want a special treat, listen to Spanish-language commentators pronounce these names) … Host country Poland finds itself with a much easier draw than their co-hosts Ukraine, and while one can not underestimate true home-field advantage, aside from Arsenal goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny and the Borussia Dortmund trio of Jakub Blaszczkowski, Lukasz Piszczek and Robert Lewandowski the Poles lack the quality, defense and creativity of Europe’s top squads …
Player to Watch: Alan Dzagoev, Russia. The 21 year old CSKA Moscow playmaker is the future of the Russian squad and looks to introduce himself to the rest of Europe.
Most Intriguing Game: Russia vs. Czech Republic, June 8, 11:45AM PST. This opening day match should tell a lot for both teams going forward, and reveal if either team is susceptible to the lesser talented Greece and Poland squads in group play.
Game to Skip If You Have To: Any game involving Greece. Seriously. Zzzzzzzz …
Predicted to Advance: Russia to win the group, and the Czechs as runners-up, barely.
Group B – The so-called “Group of Death”, every major tournament has one but this may be the most deathly version yet with four of FIFA’s Top 9 ranked teams, and I expect the eventual winner of the entire tournament to come out of here … Germany has become the popular, 3:1 odds choice to supplant Spain as European Champions, with good reason. Manager Joachim Low has a spectacular array of talent and depth at his disposal, filled with youth, experience, skill, creativity (a word that hasn’t often been used to describe German soccer) and grit. Offense should provide goals aplenty while the defense led by goalkeeper Manuel Neuer should be stingy … World Cup 2010 Finalists the Netherlands return the bulk of their difference-makers from two years ago and may have the most dazzling attacking talent this side of Spain, headed by Inter Milan star Wesley Sneijder and Arsenal’s prolific Robin van Persie. Central defense remains the lone question mark but it’s hard to shake the feeling that Euro 2012 may become a Dutch treat … Portugal may be THE Euro 2012 “darkhorse” contender, a team blessed with enough talent at 10 positions on the field to command respect from any opponent including the best pair of wingers in the world in Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani. Their problem lies in that 11th man, the center striker, where they lack a quality finisher and have for years at the international level. Still, maybe the pressure being focused on favorites Germany and the Netherlands will pay off for the Seleccao … It is tempting to write off Denmark as the “minnows” of the group (the small fish, the easy mark, the underdog, what have you), but considering they won their qualifying group (that included Portugal and Norway) and that they are currently ranked 9th in the world by FIFA, it’s also tempting to think they could win any group in the competition. Unfortunately for the Danes, they lack depth beyond the starting XI and appear to be outgunned by their other three opponents …
Player to Watch: Mesut Özil, Germany. While Ronaldo may get all the headlines at Real Madrid, Özil is the engine that makes both the Spanish League Champions and Die Mannschaft run.
Most Intriguing Game: Portugal vs. Netherlands, June 17, 11:45AM PST. While the Netherlands-Germany game on June 13 could be a Euro 2012 Final preview (wink, wink), this game should largely determine which two teams advance out of Group B.
Game to Skip If You Have To: Portugal vs. Denmark on June 13 just doesn’t have the shine as the rest of the matches do, but regardless, I won’t be skipping it.
Predicted to Advance: Netherlands (1st) and Germany (2nd), on goal differential.
Group C – For me personally, this is easily the most interesting group of the four, rife with personal connection (I claim both Spanish and Irish heritage) as well as volumes of historical rivalry and past famous matches among all four nations … With all due respect to the rest of the field, fatigue may be Spain’s most dangerous opponent, as the Titleholders field a roster full of players key to several high profile league and club tournament champions who played deep into May. Look for Manager Vicente Del Bosque to be strategic with lineups in the group stage and use his depth in order to conserve the energy of key stars like Xavi, Andres Iniesta, Juan Mata, David Silva, Sergio Ramos and Xabi Alonso … Rumors ran wild in the days leading up to the start of Euro 2012 that Italy would consider bowing out of the competition in light of their umpteenth match-fixing scandal, but the last time such a scandal hit before a major tournament, the Forza Azzuri went on to win the 2006 World Cup. While Italy will play, I don’t see that history repeating itself, although they should get to the quarters on talent and experience alone, between the evergreen Gianluigi Buffon, unyielding Giorgio Cheilini, creative Thiago Motta, ageless Andrea Pirlo, resolute Danielle De Rossi and the volatile starlet Mario Balotelli … Croatia has more than just snazzy uniforms (usually featuring the red-and-white check from their flag), they have the experience and technical skill to compete with any team in the world. Luka Modric, Ivan Raketic, Darijo Srna and Niko Kranjcar should give their more heralded Spanish and Italian midfield counterparts all they can handle, but they may be undone by a shallow bench and a lack of what experts call “pace”, or speed. In Croatia’s favor is the fact they are unbeaten against Italy (3-0-2) since the collapse of Yugoslavia and their emergence as an independent team, including a 2-1 victory in the 2002 World Cup Group stage … With legendary Italian Manager Giovanni Trapattoni at the helm, Ireland will employ a style that will be more catenaccio (cautious, organized and defense-minded) than Italy’s current possession-oriented tactics, as LA Galaxy’s Robbie Keane carries the hopes and burden of a team and a nation desperate for success, and their opening match against Croatia will go a long way in determining their Group C fate. Interesting to note that Ireland’s Trapattoni is also a mentor and former coach of Italy’s current Manager Cesare Prandelli …
Player to Watch: Xavi, Spain. Euro 2012 could be the international curtain call for La Furia Roja’s midfield maestro, and he may have just enough in the tank to propel “The Invincibles” to a third major title. A special nod to Croatia’s pint-sized veteran virtuoso Modric, who is also worth your attention.
Most Intriguing Game: Most would probably target Span vs. Italy on June 10, but I will single out Spain vs. Ireland, June 14, 11:45AM PST. Not only for the aforementioned personal reasons, but it is a rematch of their thrilling World Cup 2002 Second Round match that broke Irish hearts on penalty kicks.
Game to Skip If You Have To: None; maybe that Ireland vs. Croatia match on June 10 does not have the sparkle that the rest of the matches will have, but even that one promises to be entertaining.
Predicted to Advance: Spain (1st) and Italy (2nd), as Italy does better against Ireland than Croatia does.
Group D – If Group A is the most mysterious, then Group D is the most unpredictable group as no other group of teams has more questions waiting to be answered … Bouncing back from a disastrous 2010 World Cup to win their qualification group with only one loss is France, who enter the Euros as one of the hottest and most talented sides in Europe, unbeaten since losing their first Euro 2012 qualifying match to Belarus in September of 2010. While this squad has much to prove after their 2010 flameout, one thing that’s never in question is their talent, with goalkeeper and captain Hugo Lloris backing up a staunch defense and the likes of club stalwarts Hatem Ben Arfa, Marvin Martin and Olivier Giroud coming off the bench … What can be said about the England squad that hasn’t already been exhausted by the London tabloids? (Look them up if you must). Prevailing wisdom is that the two-game red card suspension of talisman and goal scoring savant Wayne Rooney, along with recent injuries ruling out Frank Lampard, Gary Cahill and Gareth Barry, collectively spells doom for the Three Lions’ chances of advancement, but I rather think that the remaining squad rallies around that disrespect and plays with a chip on their shoulder, making Rooney’s return in their last Group stage match a dress rehearsal for the quarterfinals … In recent tournaments Sweden seems to find itself in the same group as England, as it did in the 2002 and 2006 World Cups and does yet again here. A 1-1-3 head to head record the last 11 years belies a rivalry in which the less heralded Swedes often outplay their more vaunted English foils, losing to England last November 15 for the first time since May 22, 1968. Volatile goalsocrer Zlatan Ibrahimovic leads a enterprising Swedish squad looking to spring the trap once again … Ukraine appears to have more questions than answers entering their turn as co-host. Is the roster, led by fading Andriy Shevchenko, too old? Will players from the country’s two biggest club teams, Shakhtar Donestsk and Dynamo Kiev, be able to get along? Will they be hurt by a lack of meaningful matches the last two years? Have they settled on a consistent tactical approach, or will they keep experimenting with lineups and formations during the Group stage? Will the home team advantage galvanize or distract the squad? Stay tuned, as they do have enough starting talent to compete with the rest of the group …
Player to Watch: Yann M’Vila, France. Several observers say the distributing midfielder could be the breakout star of Euro 2012, and who am I to argue?
Most Intriguing Game: Sweden vs. England, June 15, 11:45AM PST. Maybe it’s just a coincidence that I’ve preferred the lunch-time games to the morning tilts, maybe nit, but another chapter in this fascinating rivalry awaits.
Game to Skip If You Have To: Ukraine vs. Sweden on June 11 doesn’t inspire much for most but the hardcore, will-watch-anything fans. The only intrigue may be how the nations with both blue and yellow differentiate themselves.
Predicted to Advance: France (1st) and England (2nd), in what could be considered a slight upset of sorts.
Finally here are my predictions for the knockout stages, based on the above-predicted results of the Group Stage, with the bracket and my predictions available here.
Quarterfinals: Finishing second in their group and with a boulder on their shoulder Germany makes quick work of a game but overmatched Russia. For all their effort and guile to advance out of group play, England gets as their reward Spain, who flashes their class, avenges their 1-0 loss to England last November in a friendly and easily sends the Three Lions home in the quarterfinals of a major tournament, again (the 4th time in their last six appearances in the Euros and World Cups). Netherlands outlasts the Czechs in a high-scoring, back and forth tilt, while France outlasts a beleaguered Italy (who did well to survive the group stage) in a rematch of the 2006 World Cup Final (hopefully no headbutting this time).
Semifinals: The match many believe will occur in the Final occurs in the Semis, with Germany turning the tables on Spain’s tiki-taka brand of football, getting an early lead and unraveling the design of the Titleholders possession-oriented scheme. In the other semi, a plucky French side fails to halt the surging Netherlands attack, as Clockwork Orange claims another victim in its march to history.
Final: In a rematch of the famous 1974 World Cup final, the Netherlands finally exact a revenge 38 years (some might say 70-plus years considering World War II) in the making over a favored Germany in a rematch from Group B play 18 days prior. Looking at the flags of the co-hosts, with Poland’s bold red and the Ukraine’s prominent yellow, it only makes sense that together they produce an oranje result.
* – I’m not an ESPN shill, but I figure their site is the easiest one to reference for games being broadcast on the ESPN networks. UEFA (the governing body for European soccer), Fox Soccer, Yahoo!, EuroCup (the tournament’s fan site) and The Guardian all have lovely sites and good coverage as well, to name a few.
In the wake of Kentucky’s 67-59 NCAA® Championship victory over beaten-but-not-bowed Kansas it occurred to me, as Steinbeck once suggested, that you can have the best laid plans and still lose. If you had turned the argument I made for Kansas’ chances tonight into a scorecard, you would find more checks than blanks, more success than failure, yet it was ultimately insufficient.
Let’s review (refer to the article below as needed):
Robinson – He did his part. Played 36 minutes, started off slowly and shot poorly overall (6-17), but brought energy and aggressiveness throughout, ending up with 18 points, 17 rebounds, 6-7 free throws, only 1 turnover and 2 fouls. Check.
Withey v. Davis – Jeff Withey blocked 4 shots, altered many others, and made life difficult for Kentucky inside during his 32 minutes, including bothering Anthony Davis into a 1-10 shooting night. That’s a Check. Problem was Davis gave better than he got from Withey (who was only 2-8 himself), and this year’s Final Four MOP dominated the game in a fashion not seen in decades, reflected in one of the strangest stat lines I’ve ever seen: 6 points, 16 rebounds, 5 assists, 6 blocks, 3 steals and only 2 fouls. Somewhere, Bill Russell was smiling.
Perimeter Shooting – Kansas was 5-11 from three (45.5%), hitting more than their 3.8 per game tournament average. Tyshawn Taylor finally hit a three as well, nailing his only attempt with 4:51 left in the Dance. Kansas probably needed to shoot (and make) more threes, but perimeter shooting wasn’t Kansas’ problem tonight, their shooting inside the 3-point arc was; 35.5% from the field overall, 17-51 from inside the arc (33.3%), and only 10-15 from the line. I’ll mark this as a Check, at worst it’s a Push.
Shopping List – Five items on the list, and Kansas wishes they could go back to the store:
- Be physical & clog driving lanes: Not so much in the first half (Kentucky scored 41 points), much better in the second (26 points, 18 of them from 3s or FTs). I’ll say Check based on Withey’s defense and Robinson’s energy.
- Force turnovers from ball-handlers: Kentucky only had 11, Marquis Teague, Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones only had 5 altogether. Blank
- Dominate the offensive boards: Kentucky outrebounded Kansas 39-34, tying 10-10 on the offensive boards. Blank
- Get Kentucky in foul trouble: Only Terrence Jones (4) had more than 2 fouls, and while Anthony Davis sat out the last 1:34 in the first half with 2 fouls, he had none in the second. Blank
- Limit transition & turn Kentucky into a jump shooting team: Again, much better in the second half, allowing Kentucky only 4 points inside (a tip in by Lamb and a dunk by Jones off a steal) and few transition opportunities. Check
Defense – After allowing Kentucky to shoot 53.3% (16-30) in the first half, Kansas battened down the hatches and forced Kentucky to shoot 26.9% (7-26) in the second, and 41.1% for the game. That’s about six percentage points more than Kansas’ tournament average FG% defense of 35.3 entering the game, but more than 12 percentage points lower than Kentucky’s tournament average FG% of 53.7. Check
Closing The Game – Kansas followed their own script, falling behind by 18 in the first half, only to whittle the lead down to 5 with 1:37 left, ending a furious 13-3 run over the prior 3:14. What was an uptempo nightmare for Kansas in the first half became the grinding half-court contest they wanted in the second half – Again, Kentucky was 7-26 from the field (!) in the second – and Kansas continued their torrid defense in the last five minutes, as Kentucky went 1-5 and was outscored 15-8. Kansas was certainly within striking distance late, and despite Davis’ brilliance, the table had been set. So what happened? To me it was the prior five minute stretch that did Kansas in where they couldn’t make up any ground; With 10 minutes left they were down 16 and with 5 minutes left they were down 15. Then in the last five minutes Kentucky made enough free throws (5-7, unlike John Calipari’s 2008 Memphis squad) and played just enough defense (causing 3 turnovers and blocking 1 shot). Even during Kansas’ 13-3 run, Kentucky made sure none of those points were easy, as Kansas hit two contested threes, had another old-fashioned “and-1” three-point play, and hit four other free throws from fouls that prevented easy baskets. Kansas just didn’t have enough to overcome their poor start in the end, drawing the ultimate Blank.
Self v. Calipari – Now the score is 1-1 in NCAA® Championship games. And for Kentucky, that’s all that matters. At least once the couch fires in Lexington are put out.
Fortes fortuna adiuvat. For the Kansas Jayhawks, fortune may indeed favor the bold. Entering tonight’s NCAA® Championship Game, Kentucky is the consensus favorite; Las Vegas and other offshore sports books have Kentucky favored by 6.5 points. Yet this isn’t Villanova-Georgetown or even Duke-Butler. This game matches the two winningest programs in college basketball. Like both Final Four games, this game is a rematch of an earlier contest this season, with Kentucky winning 75-65 November 15 at Madison Square Garden in the State Farm Champions Classic, a contest that Kentucky controlled for the entire second half. For this game to have a different outcome (and not follow suit like both Final Four games in which the winner of the first game won the rematch), here are the things that Kansas must be proactive about to make the most favorable argument for victory, many of which most of Kentucky;s opponents were unwilling or unable to do.
Thomas Robinson – He is simply the “X Factor” for Kansas tonight. He is the one player for which Kentucky does not have a ready match-up. I’m sure they’ll start Terrence Jones on Robinson, and won’t be afraid to switch out Anthony Davis on him early, but Robinson must be aggressive with the ball in the post, draw fouls on Kentucky’s frontline, and use his superior physical gifts to battle for every rebound. A highly productive game bodes well for Kansas – Robinson was held below his 17.9 scoring average in four of Kansas’ six losses – and he has to find a way to be a more productive factor than he was in November’s loss (27 minutes, 11 points, 12 rebounds, 5 fouls) for Kansas to win.
Jeff Withey Is Anthony Davis’ Shot-Blocking Equal – While Anthony Davis was the nations’ leading shot-blocker overall (180) and per game (4.62), Jeff Withey was No. 2 overall (136), No. 4 per game (3.58) and currently leads the NCAA® Championship in blocked shots (27 to Davis’ 23). Withey’s improved play has been key for Kansas in the latter half of this season, taking pressure off of the two-headed Jayhawk Monster (Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor), and suffocating the lane for opposing post players. For Kansas to stay within striking distance, Withey will have to pose the same issue for Kentucky inside as Davis poses for all of Kentucky’s opponents.
Perimeter Shooting, Wherefore Art Thou? – According to official NCAA® Statistics (a treasure trove of which can be found here), Kansas for the season shot 47.5% from the field, and 34.3% from three. In the NCAA® Championship however, Kansas has only shot 41.4% from the field, and a paltry 24.1% from 3 (19-79). In particular, Tyshawn Taylor, the Jayhawks’ second leading 3-point shooter in makes (57 on the season) and percentage (37.7%), is 0-20 (!), bagels with no cream cheese for five games. One argument says this is a trend, while another says Kansas (and Taylor) is overdue to shoot well. How this argument is settled tonight will go a long way towards determining the winner, but it’s clear that Kansas will have to make more than their tournament average of 3.8 threes tonight, and look early to see if Taylor can get off the schneid.
Get Everything On The List – Ever go to the store with a shopping list and either forget to get one or two items, or find yourself unable to afford everything on the list? If the Mercedes-Benz Superdome is the store, then Kansas must get everything on their list tonight. What that actually means, based on Kentucky’s two losses and other various escapes this season, is that in addition to the above, Kansas must get the following done (in handy list form):
- Be physical and clog the driving lanes defensively for Kentucky’s Dribble-drive offense (As Tennessee did in a 3-point loss in January)
- Force turnovers from Kentucky’s primary ball-handlers (As Indiana did in December)
- Dominate the offensive boards (Like Louisville did Saturday)
- Get Kentucky in foul trouble (Like Kansas did in November)
- Limit transition opportunities and turn Kentucky into a jump shooting team (Like Vanderbilt did in the SEC Title game)
Kansas Closes Games Well – Despite a well-earned reputation for choking away games to lesser teams in the NCAA® Championship – Mention Bucknell, Bradley, Northern Iowa and VCU in front of a Kansas fan and watch their eyes well up – this year’s Kansas squad has bucked that trend and found ways to win games late, with a game-by-game analysis showing they’ve done so by ratcheting up their defensive intensity. Witness:
- Round of 64: Held Detroit to 7 points over the final 9:36.
- Round of 32: Came back from 11 down against Purdue and outscored them 11-4 over the last 3:41.
- Sweet 16: Shrugged off an early 10-point deficit to North Carolina State and despite almost blowing a late 9-point lead, held the Wolfpack to 3-12 from the field over the last 6:18.
- Elite Eight: Closed North Carolina out, holding them without a field goal over the last 5:46, and blowing a one-point game wide open by outscoring the Tar Heels12-0 over the last 3:58.
- Final Four: Spotted Ohio State an early 13-point lead, then crawled back into the game to tie at 38 early in the second half, followed by outscoring the Buckeyes 15-7 over the final 5:21, holding them to 2-10 from the field.
Overall, according to ESPN Kansas has held their five NCAA opponents to 19.5% shooting in the final five minutes, and will most likely have to Rinse-Lather-Repeat to cut down the nets.
Defense Wins Championships – It’s a cliché, but the fact is both teams are in New Orleans on a Monday night in April because of their ability to defend. Kentucky leads the nation in field goal percentage defense (37.4%) and Kansas is No. 2 (37.9%). That’s no coincidence. As detailed above Kansas has been especially stingy in last few minutes of games this tournament, and is No. 4 overall in field goal percentage defense in the NCAA® Championship at 35.3%. I don’t think Kansas would be well-served to let Kentucky get an early double-digit lead as Purdue, North Carolina State and Ohio State did, but if Kansas can control the tempo, turn the game into a grinding half-court contest and position themselves within striking distance in the last five minutes, you have to like Kansas’ chances.
Bill Self Beat John Calipari For All the Marbles Before – Despite what the NCAA® official record books would have you believe, I know that in 2008, Bill Self’s Kansas actually played John Calipari’s Memphis for the NCAA® Championship, that game went into overtime and Kansas prevailed. It happened. It could happen again. Memphis was also favored that night, and had the presumptive subsequent No. 1 overall NBA Draft pick in Derrick Rose (much like Kentucky and Anthony Davis). Like they have in the last five games, Kansas in 2008 found a way to be clutch when it mattered, and if they keep the game close enough, could find a way to repeat history.
Do all of this, and it’s still no guarantee Kansas wins. Due to their youth Kentucky at times displays some of the earmarks of bad teams, whether it is turnovers, defensive lapses, missed free throws or bad shot selection. Yet Kentucky has proven they have enough talent to overcome all of that, having beat every team they’ve played on their schedule at least once (Kentucky beat Vanderbilt twice in February before losing the SEC Title game, and beat Indiana in the Sweet 16 after losing to them in December), including this very Kansas squad in November. Kansas won’t be intimidated, but will they be bold?
I still think Kentucky wins, but that’s my closing argument for Kansas, and the jury starts deliberations at 6:23 PST tonight.
Minutes before tip-off in New Orleans, and I wanted to get my picks for each game on the record of the internet. So in case I’m wrong, I can mocked and ridiculed just like anyone else.
For the first game with too many storylines to mention here, I believe the Kentucky Wildcats will prevail over Louisville’s Cardinals in the rematch of the “Battle of the Commonwealth of Kentucky” (a New Year’s Eve tilt won 69-62 by Kentucky), as Louisville finally runs up against a team that can defend as well as they can, and score more proficiently. Particularly I think Kentucky’s size on the perimeter bother’s Louisville’s three-guard rotation of Peyton Siva, Russ Smith and Chris Smith that average 6’1″ across the board. Kentucky is the consensus favorite to win it all and give John Calipari his first title in four Final Four trips, and has the pressure that accompanies such expectations, while Louisville, a No. 4 seed is seen as playing with “house money.” If Louisville can get John Wooden Award winner Anthony Davis in foul trouble throughout the game, pressure Marquis Teague into several turnovers, and Kentucky settles into a jump-shooting team instead of driving the ball to the rim, Rick Pitino’s Cardinals could upset the apple cart. I just think that’s asking too much.
In the nightcap, I expect Ohio State – the team I thought would win the NCAA® Championship at the beginning of last year’s tournament – to make the finals over an overachieving Kansas Jayhawks squad that in my view doesn’t have an answer for the Buckeyes’ Deshaun Thomas, who so far as been the MVP of this dance. This game is also a rematch of a regular season contest, that one played at Kansas’ Allen Field House where the home team beat a Buckeye squad playing without their injured All-American center Jared Sullinger, 78-67. Sullinger’s back has since healed, and how Kansas’ shot-blocking center Jeff Withey is able to defend him will go a long way towards determining today’s outcome. Kansas’ guards, especially Tyshawn Taylor who is 0-17 from 3PT, haven’t been shooting well all tournament, and unless that changes, I think Ohio State grabs a modest lead at some point in the first half and controls the game from thereon in much the same fashion they ousted Syracuse in the East Regional Final. Kansas Coach Bill Self has done an admirable job of guiding a team that lost four senior starters from last year’s Elite Eight squad to greater heights this season, but Thad Matta’s yearly accumulation of talent finally becomes greater than the sum of its parts today and should they advance, gives Kentucky all they can handle on Monday Night.
Let the games begin.
And Then There Were Four … By the time last weekend’s Elite Eight games in the NCAA® Division I Men’s Basketball Championship arrived, there really was no underdog left to root for; if you want to call No. 7 seed Florida, returning to their second-consecutive Elite Eight and coached by Billy Donovan who had won back-to-back NCAA Championships at Florida a mere five years ago, an “underdog”, that’s your business, but you’d be really stretching the concept. As such, no real surprises emerged from the weekend, and despite the fact only one No. 1 seed made it – odds-on favorite Kentucky will face their in-state blood rival, No. 1-most profitable-college-basketball-program Louisville, while key personnel losses to the No. 1 seeds in their respective brackets (more on Syracuse and North Carolina in a sec) helped pave the way for No. 2 seeds Ohio State and Kansas to meet in New Orleans – as expected the Final Four feels decidedly chalky.
I admit that in this very space earlier in the month I had predicted at least two of three from Kentucky, North Carolina, and Syracuse would get to Bourbon Street, and would be “completely shocked” if one of them did not win the NCAA® Championship. To be fair, ‘Carolina (Kendall Marshall’s broken scaphoid) and ‘Cuse (Fab Melo’s broken eligibility) both lost players vital to their prospects since that call, and in most ways played admirably in getting to the Elite Eight despite their absences. Regardless, I’ll stand by that proclamation, as Kentucky not cutting down the nets next Monday evening would still shock me. On a selfish note, despite the fact my bracket is currently in ashes in the trash can, I will salvage a bit of ego by mentioning that this Final Four has two of my “National Championship Contenders” (Kentucky and Kansas) and two of my “Final Four/Title Game Darkhorses” (Louisville and Ohio State) as well as two more of each in the Elite Eight. That and $4.50 will get me a Tall Mocha Iced Latte at my nearest coffeehouse, but still.
If A Tiger Growls In The Woods, And No One Hears It … After the basketball games Sunday I switched channels and saw on the news crawler that Tiger Woods had won The Bay Hill Invitational, and my reaction was, to quote the kids today, “Meh.” It didn’t really register to me as that big a deal. Now, I know that in reality it is a very big deal, not only for Tiger, but for the PGA and for golf in general, between the timing of it two weeks before the Masters and it being the first non-silly season PGA win for Tiger in this “comeback” phase of his career. Let’s face it, pro golf was infinitely more interesting with Tiger winning majors as often as Donald Trump fires underlings. Yet, my initial reaction speaks to how far Tiger’s star has fallen, and if other golf fans of various interest levels reacted the same way I did, that poses a real problem for the future of professional golf as viable entertainment and marketing engine for things besides golf balls and clubs. The purists and the fanatics will always follow the sport, but what happens to the casual fans with disposable income if Tiger doesn’t regain his dominance? As he’s now proven he can win again, we should be closer to an answer by the time we also know whether the Mayans were right, wrong or misinterpreted.
Miami v. Oklahoma City Twice In 10 Days Is Not An NBA Finals Preview, Is It? … No. At least I don’t think it is. This 66-game concentrated crucible of a season favors the young and talented, and there’s no doubt the Heat and Thunder have both in abundance, but if we learned anything from the 1999 strike-shortened 50-game NBA season, it’s that seasons like this also favor the unexpected and the strange. That’s why I can see age-defying San Antonio, starting-to-click LA Lakers, Defending Champ Dallas or even lurking underdogs like Memphis or two-games-out-of-the-playoffs/four-games-out-of-fourth-place Phoenix coming out of the Wild Wild West instead of Oklahoma City, whose guard play I still question in crunch time. The Eastern side of the NBA Finals equation is less murky, as I do think Miami or Chicago gets through despite the best efforts of Orlando, Boston, Philadelphia, Indiana and Atlanta or themselves to muddy the waters.
“The Voice” Maybe Shoulda Coulda Stuck With 32 Contestants Instead of This Season’s 48 … Watching Season 2 of this singing talent competition with an expanded field it became evident that too many of those initially selected by Moves Like Jagger, Cee-Lo Pajamas, Tina Ags and “The Blaker” didn’t have the chops to advance to the second phase of the contest, much less win the whole shebang. Too many of the “battle rounds” weren’t really “battles” despite the earnest hemming and hawing of this show’s “Gang of Four” judge/coaches over each decision, and Monday’s episode only produced one truly gripping performance, with Justin Hopkins and Anthony Vincent from Team Cee-Lo belting out a heartfelt rendition of Journey’s “Faithfully” (which, of course, they saved for last). I still have high hopes for several of those who advanced to the live shows starting next week, but the captivation potential of the show would have been better served with less diluted a product in the earlier phases of the competition, as after the same battle round phase last season, I had a much better feel for the field as a whole as well as more belief in the collective abilities of those chosen. It’s still DVR-worthy television, which is about as high as any praise I can give a TV show now.
No Olympic Soccer For The US Men’s National Team Makes BobbyTrue Sad … And a tad angry. Qualification for London 2012 was once taken for granted by the US Soccer “cognoscenti” (and seemingly even the players themselves judging by their performances), and now the very idea that the Under-23 squad couldn’t achieve the necessary results in Group play against Canada (0-2 loss) and El Salvador (3-3 tie) on home soil is not only galling to me, but really undercuts the idea that the United States has advanced as a soccer nation. Clearly this is a major step backwards. Losing Juan Agudelo to injury should not have been the factor it evidently was either. Just when Jürgen Klinsmann had collected a signature win at the helm of the USMNT with their 1-0 catenaccio-ing of the original catenaccio-istas Italy, it now appears that the comprehensive overhauling of the Senior Men’s team needs to be extended to the entire US national program structure in order to reacquire their upwardly mobile trajectory.
Bobby True 