Group B’s Father’s Day closing slate of Euro 2012 matches proceeded much like an average Father’s Day experience itself – usually entertaining, not many surprises, ties aren’t usually desired – as the bell tolled for the “Group of Death.” I’m confident you’ll pick up the focus of this piece rather quickly:
- What can I say about The Dutch? Certainly I was wrong to predict them to win it all when they couldn’t even win one game, but enough about me. Sometimes an abundance of talent just doesn’t come together, see France’s 2010 World Cup for a recent reference. There are several detailed post-mortem analyses about the 2010 World Cup Finalist’s early departure from Euro 2012 (linking several of them herein), but my main conclusion is about the Manager, Bert van Marwijk. I believe he went to the well a few times too often, trying to do the same things as he did in 2010 against Denmark and Germany, expecting the same results – which when it didn’t work against Denmark, is insanity against Germany – and only making positive changes to his lineup with Slim walking out the door. To Van Marwijk’s credit, some of those changes paid immediate benefits yesterday, as inserting RVDV for prior Captain (and current son-in-law) Marco van Bommel in the center midfield jump started the Dutch cause and paid off with an 11th minute goal from RVDV. Needing at least a two goal victory over Portugal, the early lead only whetted the appetite for what was to come, surely the Dutch were in flow and would extend themselves and the game to a thrilling conclusion one way or the other. And then … and then … *whistling quietly* … *crickets* … *tumbleweeds* … nothing else came. Portugal turned off the Dutch faucet, quickly and quietly, and put a stranglehold on the remainder of the match. No tactical adjustments came from Van Marwijk, no effective ideas with substitutions occurred either – inserting Ibrahim Afellay for defender Jetro Willems as an extra winger (and his only substitution for the entire match) might have been somewhat novel if Afellay hadn’t been completely ineffective the prior two games, and I’m still waiting to see Kevin Strootman. I won’t argue much with those who fault the performances of several players, even former players and opponents hitting out at their dysfunction and perceived arrogance, but to me those were only the symptoms of a chronic disorder afflicting the Netherlands’ approach to this tournament, an approach spearheaded by one man. Who, by the way, is under contract until 2016. “Total Football” needs an upgrade, and I’m less than sure Van Marwijk is the man for the job.
- Portugal, as I suggested in assessing their prospects, and as several others have hinted in the last two days, could be the surprise darkhorse to win these Euros now that they have survived and will open the knockout stage with a game but limited Czech side. Unlike the Dutch, they built upon their early loss to Germany, and have improved from match to match, creating the kind of momentum that teams need to advance far in the big tournaments. Starcrossed Cristiano Ronaldo finally got on the scoresheet in Euro 2012, scoring a brace that put all his wares on display, and woe unto those who face the wrath and destruction of a focused Ronaldo (even if that is a rare occurrence in big games for Portugal).
- To no one’s surprise, Germany won Group B, but what surprised me a little bit is how comprehensively they beat all three opponents. Narrow scoring margins (three 1-goal victories) belie how much in control they were of almost every minute of every match. Yesterday’s match wasn’t without tension, the precocious Danes tying the match five minutes after Lukas Podolski opened the scoring in the 19th minute, with another opportunistic goal from Michael Krohn-Dehli (who I hope will pad his bank accounts from his performances in the Euros) in the 24th minute. Yet it was with the same inevitability that Germany got their winner in the 80th minute from Lars Bender’s cool finish, a midfielder for his club team deputizing for suspended right back Jerome Boateng and scoring his first goal for Die Mannschaft. Clear favorites to win Euro 2012 now, they prepare for a match against Greece in the quarterfinals with undertones that go far beyond the pitch.
- Alas, poor Denmark. Nothing is rotten there, except for the opponents they were drawn in Group B and their resulting fate. I thought they acquitted themselves well, going about the business of playing soccer in an intelligent, yeomanly if not artistic fashion, and probably would have qualified in place of any team in Group A and all but France in Group D. Fortune’s furious fickle wheel indeed.
Up Next: Monday June 18, Group C decides its fate with Croatia vs. Spain and Ireland vs. Italy simultaneously at 11:45AM PST. My eyes were on Croatia-Spain as that had more on the line for both teams, although I was checking in often on Ireland-Italy to see if Trapa had one last trick up his sleeve for his home country (he didn’t, but more on that tomorrow).
Group A’s final matchday produced the first real shock of the Euros (“alleged” upsets in a “Group of Death” don’t count in my book) as we received a reminder that not everything is as it seems in soccer.
- Make no mistake: Greece over Russia 1-0 is an upset. With only a point to show for its efforts through two games the question was which Greece would show up? Who knew it would be the 2004 Greece in all its antihero glory? Get a goal (a world class goal by the by from “The Dude” at the end of the 1st, who looks much more like a young De Niro than Jeff Lebowski), then bunker, frustrate, delay, gesticulate and remonstrate their way to victory. A style that culminated in what I called the “Death of Soccer” at the Euro 2004 final, Greece showed that many of the players have changed, but their game remained the same, and against feckless opponents such as Poland and Russia, it still works. Good luck with that against Germany next Wednesday though. Nevertheless, a famous victory for a country who may be deciding its larger fate today.
- Russia crapped the bed. No better way to say it. They dazzled vs. the Czechs, and then progressively got worse throughout group play, giving more than credence to those who said before the tournament that Russia’s squad on the whole was too old to make it far in these Euros. Even their breakout starlet Alan Dzagoev couldn’t save them in the 84th minute with a glancing header that this time (as opposed to his goal against Poland) went inches wide of the post. Depending on what stat source you believe, UEFA or FourFourTwo’s Stats Zone app, Russia had either 25 or 31 shots against Poland, and none of them went in; And so it went. If indeed, “This Is Russia”, then Russia sucks based on yesterday’s display, and they have no one else to blame but themselves.
- I love the fact that UEFA changed the tiebreaking procedure to favor head-to-head results over goal differential, which is the first tiebreaker for World Cup group stages. Never made any sense to me when the loser of a head-to-head battle advanced over the winner because they had better results against the other two teams. Another benefit is it further incentivizes teams to win instead of tie games, which is always a good idea.
- As for the resilient Czechs, who played without their midfield quarterback Tomas Rosicky due to an Achilles injury, if you had told me they would have won the group after losing 4-1 to Russia, I would have laughed in your face (and been sure to have eaten some garlic and onions before hand). But it’s the Czechs who are laughing now, winning out against two limited teams with bursts of class play and save for one moment against Greece, the steely resolve of their goalkeeper Petr Cech. The Czechs absorbed Poland’s early rushes in the first half of the 1st Half, then gradually began to take the game over, Petr Jiracek’s 72nd minute gamewinner the sum of a remainder of escalating pressure down the flanks (including runs by Vaclav Pilar, David Limbersky and my guy Theodor Gebre Selassie) and a grinding, counterattacking approach that managed to control possession 58-42% and create the same number of shots on goal (7 for both) from five less chances than Poland (11 shots overall to Poland’s 16). Put into check by Russia, they fought their way out and produced their own Czech-mate on the rest of Group A, and have at least a puncher’s chance against what is sure to be a battered and bruised Group B runner-up next Thursday.
- In a do-or-die situation away from Warsaw for the first time this tournament, Poland died on a rainy night in Wroclaw. The “Dortmund Trio” of Blaszczkowski, Piszczek & Lewandowski (how’s that for the name of a law firm?) was virtually non-existent yesterday, and nothing else Poland tried worked, from bringing on two offensive-minded subs in the last 20 minutes, or pushing numbers forward to create more chances; the Czech goal actually came off a turnover and the blitzing counterattack into space left open by onrushing Polish midfielders and wingbacks that resembled a 3-on-2 fast break in basketball, and despite Poland having most of the chances after that, it was all for naught. Sad that the best moment on the pitch this co-host country experienced in their tournament occurred 17 minutes into their first match, Lewandowski’s brilliant header against Greece that sent ripples across Poland, only to be followed by wasted opportunities and unfulfilled promise. Hopefully the Poles embrace the remaining Euro games now that their heroes are out of the competition.
Up Next: Sunday June 17, Group B dies as Germany faces Denmark and Portugal battles Netherlands, both games 11:45AM PST. I’ll be watching what could be the last game for the Dutch in these Euros. On that note, Happy Father’s Day!
On a dark and stormy night in the Ukraine, Group D became the clearest of the four to still be determined in Euro 2012, as Sweden crashed out of the Euros. Off we go:
- First off, did you try your hand at “Ibrahimovic Bingo?” I sure did, but it was even less successful than Sweden’s efforts yesterday against England. Sure, maybe it would have been a more accurate satire of the ongoing dialogue by commentators covering Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s games for Sweden during the Ukraine game, where I heard several of the listed words used. Only a guess, but ESPN’s Adrian Healey and Robbie Mustoe either saw the article in England’s Telegraph and cheekily skirted around the game in their commentary during the match, or completely missed it altogether. I did hear vague references to his “unpredictability” as one of them said (and I paraphrase) “You never know what to expect with him”, another time it was said he was “polarizing“, which dances around the edge of several payoff phrases such as “”mercurial”, “erratic” and “conundrum”. I also heard him described as “Titanic”, which is close but no cigar for “Talismanic”, and we sure saw a lot of his ponytail, but otherwise it was a bust. Maybe the ITV broadcast in the U.K. had more joy. Regardless, maybe words such as “world class” and “levels above his teammates” should have been on the sheet, as that reflects the ultimate truth about Ibra more than any of the snark from English commentators.
- As for the game itself, it was a “cracker of a match” to use the British English parlance, a series of three mini-games that comprised the best match of Euro 2012 to date. For the first half of the 1st Half, England had the run of play, culminating in laser beam cross from Stephen Gerrard onto the head of much-maligned Liverpool striker Andy Carroll, who finished spectacularly past Swedish ‘keeper Andreas Isaksson to put England in front. From that point in the 23rd minute, England went into their “playing-not-to-lose” shell, and Sweden began to test the England defense time and again in the second half of the 1st Half and continuing for the first 15 minutes of the 2nd Half. Sweden’s first goal five minutes into the 2nd was the very residue of all that pressure, a comical “Keystone Cops”-like sequence that began with an Ibra free kick just outside the penalty area rebounding right back to the big Swede, who scissor-kicked it past nine English defenders onto the feet of an unmarked Olaf Mellberg. Having time to settle the ball and perhaps dance a jig, Mellberg shot right at English ‘keeper Joe Hart (a defender’s strike if there ever was one) and the ball took three deflections off Hart and England defender Glen Johnson before settling across the goalline, a tying goal that was rightly scored by UEFA as an own-goal off the last touch of Johnson. Not more than ten minutes later, Sweden scored again in the 59th on basically the same set-up, as this time Sebastian Larsson sent a free kick again onto the head of an unmarked Mellberg, who needed no help from England getting the ball into goal this time. Perhaps it was the Swedish celebration right in front of the English goal that sparked the response to come, as England then had it all to do over the final 30 minutes of regular time, a third mini-game that became theirs with Manager Roy Hodgson’s insertion of Theo Walcott for the languid James Milner in the 61st minute. It was Walcott who evened the match three minutes after coming on, a 25-meter thunderstrike that found nothing but net, and in the 78th minute with England playing to win again, it was Walcott who sent a low near-post cross inches behind an inrushing Danny Welbeck, who backheeled the ball past a stunned Isaksson and scored what will likely be the goal of the tournament. Sweden had no final answer – Manager Erik Hamren summing up his squad’s performance at the Euros: “The operation was good, but the patient is dead …” – and after Tuesday will be pondering questions about the future of the squad heading into World Cup 2014 qualifications. England know they are a good result against Ukraine away from no longer flying under the radar and ratcheting up expectations for their Euro 2012 finish, no matter how unrealistic they may be.
- The name of Ukraine’s National Anthem “Shche Ne Vmerla Ukraina” roughly translates in English to “Ukraine Has Not Yet Perished”, which is an apt description of their standing in Euro 2012, losing in uninspiring fashion to France, 2-0. A massive thunderstorm delayed the match for 56 minutes after five minutes had been played, and the pause seemed to take the starch right out of the home team and its crowd. France put the game away during a five-minute span early in the 2nd Half, class goals coming from Jeremy Menez in the 53rd and Yohan Cabaye in the 56th, and for all their industry and enthusiasm, Ukraine had no reply. France is now unbeaten in 23 straight international competitive matches, and I doubt that streak ends against Sweden. By virtue of their win over the Swedes Ukraine still controls their own destiny, as beating England Tuesday sends them through, and at this point, that’s about all they could have asked from their first two matches.
- Group D’s fate is the clearest of them all. France (4 points) only needs a tie against Sweden (0 points) or a Ukraine tie or loss to England to advance. England (4 points) and Ukraine (3 points) advance if they beat the other, while England advances if their match ends in a tie. Sweden is eliminated. Should France and England end up tied for the top of Group D, determining 1st and 2nd will come down to the scorelines of Tuesday’s games to decide goal differential and/or scoring advantage. France by all means should advance, so the remaining question is England or Ukraine? A tough one to be sure, as on paper England has more talent and will be bolstered by the return of Wayne Rooney, but Ukraine will have the home field advantage from a rabid crowd. I’m sure the English media will overanalyze this game to death, so I’ll just say that if the England that emerged in the last half-hour of yesterday’s Sweden game shows up, playing to win, they will.
Up Next: Saturday June 16, Group A completed their troika of matchdays with Poland vs. Czech Republic and Russia vs. Greece, both games starting at 11:45AM PST (as will the other final group stage games each day, as regulated by FIFA in order to prevent match ”coordination” or outright fixing between well-situated competitors). Since I couldn’t watch both at the same time (and will DVR the other), I watched the Poland-Czech match live to see if the co-hosts can advance (They didn’t).
A day of Group B action that promised to provide advancement clarity only muddied the picture, as no one has actually died yet in the “Group of Death”. We dive in:
- Portugal showed a lot more verve against a Denmark team playing with little to lose, and both attitudes showed in the final result, an entertaining 3-2 victory that the Seleccao absolutely needed to stay alive. While the press love to narrow in on Cristiano Ronaldo’s struggles for his national side, including several blown chances in today’s match, Portugal’s other word class winger Nani more than picked up the slack, assisting on Portugal’s second goal, constantly threatening the Danish defense and creating chances on crosses and attacking runs. Late sub Silvestre Varela put Portugal over the top with his fabulous strike in the 87th minute, and for a national side that has lacked a top quality striker seemingly forever, A New Hope may have been found just in time.
- As for Denmark, they were perhaps too casual at the start, content to absorb Portugal’s advances which is a strategy I question considering how defensive Portugal was against Germany and how Portugal plays better the more enterprising they are in attack, finishing this match with a decided advantage in shots (17-9) and shots on goal (12-6). The Danes didn’t seem to wake up until they were down 2-0 after 35 minutes, with goal poacher Nicklas Bendtner heading in a brace (an English soccer term meaning two goals) and the hero of their Netherlands win Michael Dehli-Krohn assisting the first goal and initiating the sequence on the tying goal, only to give it all back late. Now their hopes of making it thorough rest on getting a result (win or tie) against an ascendant Germany, never an optimal scenario in any soccer tournament.
- Before the tournament and from a neutral perspective, if I could only choose one group stage game to watch above all others, it would have been Netherlands-Germany in Group B. As recently as last Friday I thought this game could be a preview of the eventual Final, a thought that perished immediately after the Netherlands’ largely listless performance in their opening loss to Denmark. My question heading into yesterday’s game was how resolute would the Dutch Masters be with their backs against the wall against favored Germany at the Metalist (no, not “Mentalist”, although at this point the Dutch could use “The Mentalist”) Stadium in Kharkiv? Not even their fan base was sure about the resolve of their side as according to a fan poll in the June 13 edition of the Dutch daily Algemeen Dagblad, 42 percent of respondents predicted victory, 42 percent predicted defeat, and the other 16 percent predicted a tie. As it turns out, the answer to my question was “not very”, as once they fell behind in the 24th minute the balloon of a good start appeared to have deflated, and even the second half goal didn’t inspire the confidence that Netherlands were back in the match, the inevitability of German victory pervading the air like limburger cheese.
- Getting to brass tacks, Netherlands have been too busy trying to cover for their weaknesses in defense rather than playing to their strengths in offense. Manager Bert van Marwijk has rightly come under criticism for his lineup and substitution choices over their two matches so far, offering proof of the definition of insanity; No changes in the attacking lines to start, resulting in the same ineffectual offensive execution, and making virtually the same substitutions as in the Denmark game (RVDV for a defensive midfielder, The Hunter for an ineffective Afellay, a late arriving Kuyt and no Kevin Strootman) that failed to adequately change that dynamic. At one point in the first half, Arjen Robben to over 20 seconds to make a throw-in, his teammates impersonating statues as he looked at throwing it everywhere but the stands, and that lack of decisiveness and commitment is emblematic of the Dutch experience in Euro 2012. While they may still be alive in the Group of Death thanks to Robin van Persie’s goal in the 72nd minute, since no team has advanced to the knockout stage after losing their first two group games the Netherlands will have to do what has never been done, which might be too much to ask.
- Mario Gomez came up trumps again for Germany, his play justifying Manager Jogi Low’s faith in him and rebuking Low’s critics who preferred goalscoring legend Miroslav Klose in the starting lineup. Both first half goals by Super Mario were clinical, almost effortless finishes that belied the skill required to achieve them, even as the lax Dutch defense were willing abettors. Die Mannschaft was rarely bothered afterwards, controlling the match throughout despite a contrary statistical edge for Netherlands in possession (52-48%) and overall shots (13-12). Germany had more shots on goal (9-6) and committed less fouls (7 to 11 for Netherlands), further indicating their command and poise in a performance that has them on schedule for a deep run at the Euros.
- There are too many permutations and potential outcomes to detail here, but the bottom line for Group B is that Germany (6 points) wins the group with a win, tie, or a high scoring, one-goal loss (like 3-2 or greater) against Denmark that preserves their goal scoring or differential advantage in a 2 or 3-way tie, Denmark and Portugal (3 points each) are guaranteed to get in with a win unless both of them win, and Netherlands (0 points) must beat Portugal by at least two goals and hope Germany beats Denmark to advance through a 3-way tiebreraker. My guess is Germany simplifies things from their end with a win, sending through the survivor of Portugal-Netherlands.
Up Next: Thursday June 14, Group C reenters the Euro stage with border rivals Italy vs. Croatia, 9:00AM PST, followed by the battle for my personal European Soccer Soul, Spain vs. Ireland, 11:45AM PST.
Bobby True 