In a match that held few surprises, Spain marched on against a feckless France side that only confirmed doubts about their chemistry and potential. Here’s what else I saw:
- Making his 100th appearance for his national side, Xabi Alonso must have seen some weakness about Hugo Lloris’ keeping when in the 8th minute he launched a long chip from the right midfield towards Lloris’ goal mouth from about 55 meters that had Lloris backpedaling to catch it. Thought little of it at the time watching, but as it turns out, Alonso may have even had the French ‘keeper pegged before the match. It was Alonso’s perfectly placed header from the same right side to the opposite post in the 19th minute that put the Spanish ahead to stay. In the 51st minute he fired a rocket over the bar from 35 meters out that caught Lloris a half-step behind, and, as with header goal, the Real Madrid midfielder completely bamboozled Lloris on his penalty kick in the 91st minute, adding insult to injury. In between all that, Spain posed the bigger threat on goal throughout and never looked like the match would get away from them, winning 2-0 and setting up a tasty “Battle of Iberia” against Portugal in Euro 2012’s first semifinal June 27.
- I thought going back to the “False No. 9”, or the 4-6-0 formation, or whatever you want to call it, was curious at best. It’s not that the Sweathog Fabregas doesn’t deserve to start, he’s certainly a vital cog to Spain’s imagination in the midfield along with Xavi, David Silva and Andres Iniesta, and I’m not sure Manager Vicente Del Bosque should sit any of them. If anything, next to the lack of a top striker making pressuring runs deep into the opposing backline, what has troubled me about using six midfielders is the reliance on both Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets in central midfield seems a bit defensive and somewhat redundant. Maybe that’s a tacit admission that Spain’s backline is less than optimal without Carles Puyol, having to employ an out-of-position Sergio Ramos and an out-of-form Gerard Pique as the central tandem (although Spain now has three clean sheets in a row). Spain may be served better by sitting either Alonso or Sergio Busquets –- tough call there, Busquets has the greater familiarity with his Barca line mates Xavi, Iniesta and Fabregas, but to me Alonso is more versatile, a punishing defender and ballwinner as well as someone finishing capability, as we saw today – and using any of their strikers, a fit and focused El Niño is optimal, but Fernando Llorente and Alvaro Negredo are more than capable as well in a more balanced attack. After the goal, the best Spain looked was when El Niño came in the 67th minute for Fabregas, lending further credence to scrapping the striker-less lineup. Then again, who am I, who is anyone to say they should do differently? Spain is in the semifinals, getting stronger by the game and living up to the maxim that in order to become the Champ, you are going to have to beat the Champ.
- France meanwhile followed their “What? Was? That?!?” descent to a callow exit from Euro 2012, showing too much respect to Spain in making several lineup changes that again failed to inspire and tactical decisions that were part of its undoing. Les Bleus rarely tested the Spanish goal (4 shots, only 1 on goal) even though they probably saw more of the ball than most observers – including French Manager Laurent Blanc – expected they would (45% of the possession). Blanc’s decision to funnel their attack through Franck Ribery and Karim Benzema on their left side of the field resulted in conceding that side on defense, where Spain had acres of space to torment their enablers (which was ironic, since Spain’s goal in the run of play came from an attack by Jordi Alba down the opposite flank, maybe the result of the French readjusting to their original overcompensation of starting two right backs). The only times France actually looked dangerous came in the 32nd minute when Johan Cabaye’s free kick was calmly deflected over the bar by San Iker, who then bobbled the subsequent corner kick before grabbing it, and seconds later France sent three consecutive crosses into Spain’s box that were all easily defended (the last one from Ribery scooped up by San Iker), while in the 71st minute San Iker bobbled another low Ribery cross just inside his goal box before covering it. Maybe one can consider France’s brief rush between the 60th and 64th minutes as presenting “danger”, creating two of their four shots, neither of which had to be saved; At most, that’s six minutes out of 90-plus that the French were credibly engaged, not nearly enough against the reigning Best Team in The World. I’d make a reference incorporating the words “French” and “surrender” at this point, but it’s bad form to kick someone when they’re down (plus, I’ve already been beaten to the punch by someone at ESPN).
- I keep flip-flopping on who should win between England and Italy. Three days ago I had England, two days ago I had Italy, and yesterday I had England again. On one hand, I think this England squad benefited from flying under the radar, and now that they’re in the knockout stage, the English media have gone to their usual full boil on how the Three Lions could, should and would beat Italy, thereby removing the protective veil of low expectations. On the other, the return of Wayne Rooney has buttressed an English attack that has developed more options and scored goals in more ways than expected. I think Italy has more quality and reliability in their starting XI, and the most creative midfield force of the two teams in Andrea Pirlo (although Stephen Gerrard has been and could again be quite the catalyst for England). I also think Italy’s strength on set pieces – scoring 3 of their 4 total goals off set pieces – matches up well with England’s weakness in defending set pieces – England conceding 2 of their 3 goal allowed off such plays. I’m leaning back towards Italy by the slimmest of margins, although much of that depends on how aggressive a formation Manager Cesare Prandelli deploys as well as who he employs in it. Italian defensive stalwart Giorgio Cheilini looks like he stepped out of the 1982 World Cup Champion Italy’s team picture (only with less hair), and the rugged defender has an equally old-school style of play to him that will be desperately missed if as expected he is unable to go against England. Starting Mario Balotelli up top would also signal that the Forza Azzurri will confidently put their best foot forward, while starting James Milner instead of Theo Walcott would limit England’s forward enterprise.
Up Next: Sunday June 24 (today), the last berth in the Euro Final Four is determined when England meets Italy in Kiev, first kick at 11:45AM PST.
Friday’s Quarterfinal in the Euros sent a message to the remaining five teams that Germany is playing for keeps. The highlights and lowlights:
- Talk about a blitzkrieg. Greece had just gone all “Death of Soccer” on their match with Germany, tying the game at 1 in the 55th minute with a splendid counterattack in their finest Euro 2004 Champion tradition, and Germany looked set to pay the price for numerous failed chances. The tension was thick with ideas of “extra-time” and “penalty shootout” as Greece looked every bit the part of David casting stones. That lasted all of six minutes, as Die Mannschaft in what may be sport’s ultimate example of “flipping the switch”, found their “F You!!” gear and scored three barnstorming goals in the next 13 minutes, each one more impressive than the last, Germany dictating terms to Greece in an “art imitating life” passion play. A late penalty kick goal for Greece was nothing more than face saving as they exited the Euros, hearts broken.
- Entering the tournament, I would have had no real problem with the idea that France could beat Spain were they to meet in the knockout stage. France entered the Euros the hottest team in Europe on the backs of a 21-game unbeaten streak, deep with creative attacking talent and one of the best netminders in Europe, Hugo Lloris. It was Spain that entered the tournament full of questions, from their lineup to their fitness and desire. As things stand now, I would be really surprised if France found a way through Spain to the Semifinals. It is France that raised questions with their play, not just from their 2-0 shock loss to Sweden, but in a 1-1 tie to England, results that have led to rancor then glossing over by players and coaches that all has been settled and this will not be a repeat of South Africa. While Spain hasn’t fully answered their questions either – Who should they start up top? Will their legs hold up to get to the Finals? – La Roja won their group in cold, clinical fashion and provide all teams the ultimate test of patience with their ruthless possession game. We’ll know after 90 minutes today if France is more together or apart.
Up Next: Saturday June 23 (today), the third Euro Quarterfinal Spain faces France in Donetsk, first kick at 11:45AM PST.
Quarterfinal action began yesterday at the Euros, and the first berth in the Euro Final Four was earned.
- Portugal’s 1-0 win over the Czechs went as I thought it would. Previewing the game yesterday, I wrote this:
“Petr Cech will have to be at his absolute best facing a likely barrage of shots from all angles to keep his side in the match.”
And Cech was superb for 78 minutes, credited with only four official saves on Portugal’s 20 shots but there was no doubt that Cech made several more stops, blocks and deflections. The Czechs started out the game well, giving as good as they got for the first 15-20 minutes, but as against the Netherlands, Portugal slowly started to take control of the game, and spent an inordinate amount of time in the Czech half of the field. Without a doubt the Czechs missed injured Captain and midfield conductor Tomas Rosicky, not even fit enough to come on as a sub, but he was not going to make the difference yesterday. Small consolation though this now familiar refrain is (see Croatia and Denmark), the Czechs battled back from their opening match disaster against Russia to represent well in the Quarters and can exit the Euros proudly, heads held high.
- The critics, the doubters, the snarks, they can take the day off. I don’t care what you’ve thought of him before, but on Thursday evening in Warsaw, Cristiano Ronaldo was brilliant. It’s not just about the goal either, although that itself was pure class. He took four times as many shots as the entire Czech team did, constantly terrorizing the entire Czech defense from all sides, sending two shots off the post and forcing several errors and desperate measures from the overmatched Theodor Gebre Selassie (who got caught ball-watching on the goal and had been impressive in group play) and eventually the rest of his backline mates. Furthermore, contrary to prior big matches for the Seleccao, Ronaldo didn’t let early frustrations and near-misses derail his efforts. This is the Ronaldo the soccer world has been waiting for in a major international tournament, and if he retains this focus and this form, the Spain-France winner will have their hands full.
- I like Germany over Greece. I’ve been guilty of underestimating Greece for over eight years, so I won’t continue that mistake. I’m certain they will frustrate Germany’s efforts in the attacking end of the field, packing in “nine behind”, and they are always a threat on set pieces. Die Mannschaft just has too much skill and patience to be held back for 90 minutes, even if their goals come from long strikes by the likes of Bastian Schweinsteiger or Thomas Muller. Plus, Greece will miss “The Dude”, De Niro look-a-like, their Captain and impresario Giorgos Karagounis, who is suspended for the match via yellow card accumulation. Bet365 has Greece at 11:1 to win the game outright (before penalty kicks), which will likely be the longest odds you’ll see the rest of the tourney, but nevertheless I’d still bet on Goliath.
Up Next: Friday June 22 (today), Germany vs. Greece in Gdansk, first kick at 11:45AM PST. I am looking forward to what banners and chants the Greek fans will have in the stadium awaiting the scheduled-to-attend Angela Merkel.
Group play came to a close in Ukraine on Tuesday, sending one last tremor across the Euro landscape before kicking into high gear Thursday with the Quarterfinals. Let’s look back before moving forward:
- Could it be? Could it actually be that joining the ranks of official darkhorses Portugal and Italy to win the Euros is Jolly Ol’ England? The winners of Group D have fans’ hopes and expectations soaring after a gritty, fortunate 1-0 victory over a contentious Ukraine playing on home soil. A game that was really a one-sided affair for the 1st Half and much of the 2nd, the hosts dominating shots (16-9) possession (58-42%) and posing the larger threat. “Return of the Roo” was better than the prequel “Don’ You Go Rounin’ Roun to Re Ro”, Wayne Rooney bringing the Three Lions into the match by getting to the right place at the right time in the 48th minute for the gamewinner, and otherwise looking spry if not a bit rusty. Roo probably should have had another goal in the 28th minute, an open header going wide of the goal (and no, I did not play “Rooney Bingo”). England’s defense was organized, if not too happy to let Ukraine send “wave after blue wave” towards Joe Hart (who for me was England’s Man of the Match). Then of course, John Terry did his part to keep England safe, but more on that later. For now, Italy looms on Sunday’s horizon, their prize for winning Group D avoiding Spain in the Quarters.
- Like Poland, Ukraine sadly enjoyed its best moments of the tournament it co-hosted in their first match, one that should forever be known as “Sheva’s Swan Song”, Andriy Shevchencko’s two goals electrifying a nation and rolling back the years. Unlike Poland, Ukraine were capable of more it seemed, possessing some young quality in Andriy Yarmolenko, Yehven Konoplyanka, Denis Garmash and Yaroslav Rakitskiy (all 22 years old) that should ensure a smooth transition from the old guard of Sheva, Andriy Voronin, Anatoly Tymoshchuk and Serhiy Nazarenko, matched by an industriousness that posed constant threat to the teams they faced. One can’t help but feel Ukraine were unlucky with the “goal that wasn’t” in the 62nd minute, Terry’s goalline save looking to be a foot late on replay (even if Artem Milevskiy was offsides), and while it would not have changed the end result alone, it would have changed the context of the remaining third of the match. Regardless, the other host country has now perished from Euro 2012.
- As for France … What? Was? That?!? Losing 2-0 to the already eliminated Swedes is one thing, ending a 23-match unbeaten streak is another, but this performance was night compared to the day of their other two Group D matches. I don’t know what to make of France. Calling them a darkhorse contender appears to both underestimate their collective talent and overestimate their performances at Euro 2012 so far. Yann M’Vila and Hatem Ben Arfa got the starts in the midfield that French fans have been clamoring for, and produced next to nothing before being substituted out. Firing 24 shots and having nothing to show for it was very “Russia vs. Poland” of them, while losing starting central defender Philippe Mexes to yellow card accumulation and a post-game “shouting match” that recalls French in-fighting at their 2010 World Cup collapse aren’t positive omens either. Advancing by the skin of their teeth through the back door, Les Bleus now have less than three days to find solutions against the World and European Champions (Not that Italy would have been Easy Street either).
- Sweden has some tough questions to ask themselves as well, considering their about-face in form against the French. Zlatan Ibrahimovic showed his class once again, and Sweden’s other 10 players played up to his level, holding a lead for once and leaving their fans wondering where those efforts had been hiding. The game, much like England-Ukraine, didn’t take shape until the 2nd half when a star stepped forward, Ibra putting Sweden ahead in the 53rd minute with a wondrous sideways bicycle strike past a helpless Hugo Lloris that should end once and for all any questions regarding Ibra’s ability, with Sebastian Larsson’s goal in the 91st minute the cherry on top. If only Sweden could find similar talents at the other nine field positions, then they’d have something other than a middling European pretender.
- With Ukraine and Sweden leaving the building, the Euro Quarterfinals are set. Here’s a bracket setting out the schedule and structure, but to recap: On one side of the bracket, Czech Republic plays Portugal on Thursday and that winner will face the winner of Saturday’s Spain vs. France match. On the other side, Germany faces Greece on Friday, and that winner plays Sunday’s England-Italy victor. The winners of these two subsequent matches scheduled for Tuesday June 26 & Wednesday June 27 respectively, will play Sunday July 1 for all the marbles. Only seven games left to decide who will be the Champion of Europe.
- So who takes it all? Predictions while a tournament is ongoing are a funny thing. What is one to do? After all, I picked Netherlands to win it all beforehand and they didn’t win a game, much less make it to the knockout stage. I’m no computer, spitting out mathematical projections based on complex formulas (click the link if you want that kind of thing). I would like to think my analysis is much more educated than it was two weeks ago, but then again I thought it was educated then. Plus, doing a prediction bracket as I did, if you don’t get the right order of the group finish (I only got Group C exact, and none of the quarterfinals right), your predictions are all for naught. Best thing I can figure from here on is to just take each game as it comes. I like Portugal over the Czech Republic today, I think the Seleccao have too much quality in attack and represent a real step up in competition from the Czechs’ Group A opponents. Petr Cech will have to be at his absolute best facing a likely barrage of shots from all angles to keep his side in the match. It’s a bridge too far for the Czechs against what I think has been among the Top 3 teams in these Euros, especially if Tomas Rosicky can’t go the full 90 minutes.
Up Next: Euro 2012 took a day off Wednesday after 12 straight matchdays to give all of us a pause to refresh. Thursday June 21 (today), Portugal vs. the Czech Republic kicks off at 11:45AM PST.
Play in Group C finished yesterday as favored sides advanced and underdogs exited stage left. Some extended thoughts:
- Croatia-Spain was a more ponderous affair than I anticipated, one observer calling it the “… footballing equivalent of an episode of ‘24’”, even as another observer in the Spanish daily El Pais thought it “played out like a “Alfred Hitchcock film.” The opening half especially lacked real suspense, Spain dominating the ball but unable to create clear threats on goal, perhaps too cute with one pass too many, too often. Yet it was Croatia that was more direct with their chances, possibly unfortunate not to have a penalty kick awarded on Sergio Ramos’ tackle inside the box on Mario Mandzikic in the 27th that might have drawn a foul call elsewhere on the pitch. As news trickled in however about Italy scoring late in the 1st half of their simultaneous match, pressure on both sides to secure a result mounted and finally provided the needed tension. A player who plies his professional trade for Sevilla in Spain, Ivan Raketic might have fired the shot Heard ‘round the World were it not for a reflex save from San Iker in the 59th minute, a point-blank header from a Luka Modric cross that was Croatia’s best chance to tilt the match in their favor. In the 88th, the modern-day Sweathog Cesc Fabregas (substituting for an ineffective David Silva) conspired with Andres Iniesta and Jesus Navas (who came on for the Ghost of El Niño, so much for his rebirth) to shut the door on Croatia’s designs, Fabregas sending a lob that beat the offsides trap to Iniesta who coolly slotted it to Navas in a two-on-one break – the “one” being Croatian ‘keeper Stipe Pletikosa, who couldn’t escape from No Man’s Land to stop it – for the final blow.
- Some observers suggest there cracks in the veneer and/or that the proverbial wolves are at the door when it comes to Spain’s chances of their major tournament “Three-peat™” (with both apologies and credit to Pat Riley). I’m not convinced, as this view fails to give Croatia’s fantastic efforts their proper due and neglects to remember the past. Spain won this game in much the same fashion as it won all four World Cup 2010 knockout stage games and the Euro 2008 Final: All were 1-0 victories where Spain dominated possession (a 65-35% margin against Croatia), engineered crafty and timely goals (as they did yesterday), and relied upon defensive hustle and steady goalkeeping from San Iker (Spain has only conceded one goal so far at Euro 2012) to somehow achieve the antithetical state of patiently grinding out wins with style. Maybe the critics are right and Spain is more vulnerable, sensing that Manager Vicente Del Bosque still seems unsettled on his best XI, seeing Italy and Croatia produce blueprints on how to frustrate Spain’s approach, and knowing Spain’s stars might be fatigued from extended club seasons. Maybe for me it’s a case of “I’ll believe it when I see it but not until then” for Spain, but I’ve little reason to think the Defending Champs are no longer as capable of winning Euro 2012 as any squad remaining, including a peaking Germany.
- Several media analyses (linked above) criticized Croatia’s efforts against Spain as “negative”, conservative and lacking purpose or urgency, but that to me is a bit unfair considering their opponent. Croatia defended really well for 87 minutes, surrounding any Spanish player with the ball in the center or attacking thirds with 2-3 defenders, and when Croatia had the ball they created the more dangerous chances. Modric in particular played as if he could step into Spain’s midfield for Xavi and La Roja wouldn’t miss a beat – watch for Real Madrid to make a move for Modric next month. Much like Denmark, Croatia represented themselves well in this tournament against more talented opponents of larger stature, playing every game with organized determination and (unlike Denmark) a bit of flair when given the opportunity. I would also submit that, much the same as Denmark, they would have qualified ahead of every team in Groups A and D – including France, who I like better so far then Denmark but slightly less than Croatia – had they been in those groups instead. Manager Slaven Bilic can ride off into the Locomotiv Moscow sunset knowing his Croatia tenure ended on a proud yet bittersweet note.
- One of the more captivating matchups when the Euro 2012 groups were drawn was Italy facing their countryman and former coach Giovanni Trapattoni’s Ireland squad. The elimination of Ireland may have taken some of the luster off, but I was still piqued to see if Trapa’s defensive minded squad built in Italy’s catenaccio image could spoil the party for the Forza Azzuri. It wasn’t to be, as while this was their best performance of the Euros, this Ireland squad just didn’t have enough quality to play the part of spoiler. Although the Republic didn’t concede an early goal as they did in their two prior matches, Italy took control of the match from the opening kick and for all intents ended it in the 35th minute; Antonio Cassano’s header off a corner kick that barely crossed the goal line is one ball that Irish ‘keeper Shay Given probably should have stopped. Mario Balotelli’s stupendous standing one-footed bicycle kick goal was merely flavorful icing on the cake, coming off another corner kick right after Irish midfielded Keith Andrews was shown his second yellow card for dissent – poor discretion on the part of Turkish referee Cüneyt Çakır if you ask me – and ejected from the game. Good thing the Irish fans thought to do “The Poznan” in Poznan at kickoff, as they wouldn’t have otherwise during the match.
- I find it hilarious that Italian soccer media and fans were concerned over the potential for match-fixing between Spain and Croatia, as a 2-2 tie would have sent both of them through regardless of what Italy did against Ireland. While you can’t blame them for being all too aware of such nefariousness, Italian soccer itself embroiled in another match-fixing scandal, it is the height of pot-meet-kettle hypocrisy. Nevertheless, Italy advances and has officially joined Portugal as a darkhorse candidate to win the Euros, though I am less convinced of both their quality and potential considering a.) three of their four goals so far have come from set pieces and b.) their path likely has Germany waiting in the semis.
Up Next: Tuesday June 19, the last games of group play are held as Group D dishes out the last invites to the party, with Sweden vs. France and England vs. Ukraine simultaneously at 11:45AM PST. England-Ukraine will have my full attention.
Bobby True 
