In the two days after the 2013 Final Four was been set, the hottest sports story making rounds wasn’t Wichita State or Louisville’s Kevin Ware and his Joe Theismann-esque leg injury (No, I won’t link a photo) or UCLA’s hiring of Mambo No. 5 Steve Alford. It wasn’t Baseball’s Opening Days (Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz …), wasn’t the video of Rutgers’ rageaholic Head Coach Tim Rice going apoplectic in practice, certainly wasn’t NFL backup QBs being traded, and it wasn’t John Enfield moving “Dunk City” from Fort Myers to Los Angeles.
Rather, it was CBSSports.com’s Jeff Goodman’s startling report that Pac-12 Conference coordinator of basketball officials Ed Rush allegedly offered incentives (“$5,000 or a trip to Cancun”) for calling a technical foul or ejection on Arizona Basketball Coach Sean Miller, in two separate meetings with game officials before Arizona games during the Pac-12 Conference Tournament in Las Vegas. Miller in fact was assessed a technical foul with 4:37 left in Arizona’s 66-64 loss to UCLA in the Pac-12 semifinals, by an official who was present at those meetings and had worked all three Arizona-UCLA games this season. Miller’s first technical of the year, by the way.
Twitter exploded on the topic as one would expect. Dallas Mavericks Owner and noted NBA officiating antagonist Mark Cuban isn’t surprised. This coming from the man who said that Rush is not interested in the integrity of the game and that he “wouldn’t hire him to manage a Dairy Queen.” Outcast former NBA Referee and current gambling tout Tim Donaghy chimed in, suggesting there’s more where that come from regarding Ed Rush, and went on ESPN SportsRadio to expound upon Rush’s days as both an NBA referee and the head of NBA officials (1998-2003). ESPN and Grantland.com impresario Bill Simmons asserted that some of the “most dubiously reffed NBA playoff games ever” occurred under Rush’s watch. Shortly after, sportswriters such as Andy Glockner of SI.com to Gary Parrish at CBSSports.com to Jeff Eisenberg of Yahoo!’s “The Dagger” Sports Blog to the wacky funsters at Deadspin and even beyond conventional sports media to Patrick Rishe of Forbes Magazine, all weighed in on the matter. Goodman made the sports radio rounds this morning, from Dan Patrick to Mike & Mike to Scott Van Pelt. A Facebook page titled “Remove Ed Rush Immediately” sprang up and gained over 1,500 likes in less than 24 hours (I know it’s not “1,000,000 likes so Dad will buy me a puppy!”, but still). Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott also started a misguided charm offensive, largely on ESPN between Van Pelt’s radio show and Andy Katz’s report, but also stopping by CBSSportsRadio’s “Mojo” show, backing his man Rush and dismissing the idea of impropriety out of hand all the while paying empty lipservice to the notions of transparency, ethics and fairness.
The fact this story was released on April 1st, cause some people to think it was an elaborate April Fools’ joke, but unfortunately for Scott, no such luck. His official response to the story also looked like an April Fools’ lark, yet also exhibited a stunning lack of not only humor but tactile awareness. From Goodman’s article:
“Based on the review, we have concluded that while Rush made inappropriate comments that he now regrets during internal meetings that referenced rewards, he made the comments in jest and the officials in the room realized they were not serious offers,” Scott told CBSSports.com. “Following our review, we have discussed the matter with Rush, taken steps to ensure it does not happen again, and communicated our findings to all of our officials.”
In jest you say Larry? Read that quote again and really examine what Scott is not only saying, but trying to accomplish: a blatant smokescreen, posing as the traffic cop at the end of crime tape barrier shouting “There’s nothing to see here, move along!”, and doubling down on the efforts during his media tour today. To borrow Jay Bilas’s words, how can Mr. Scott be so tone deaf? That whitewash is not thick enough to cover what happened; the rug is not large enough to sweep this under. Even worse, he’s made statements in the last 24 hours that suggest Rush’s actions were based on directives that came directly from his office. So your plan to address this burgeoning controversy is to implicate yourself in a potential breach of ethics? Scott’s reputation as a savvy businessman and master of public relations undoubtedly suffers some slings and arrows now, never mind the credibility of Pac-12 basketball officating.
Almost everyone who offered an opinion sounded the same refrain: Ed Rush must face harsher consequences for his actions, and Larry Scott cannot continue on this current course of crisis mismanagement. Ed Rush yelled fire in the moviehouse, and Larry Scott can’t excuse the riot that ensued.
And then there’s this: On the afternoon of March 15, hours before the Arizona-UCLA game between 2:31 and 4:42pm EST, six separate Las Vegas Sports Books moved the betting spread from Arizona -4 to Arizona -3.5, with a corresponding shift in the money line of 10-20 points indicating a surge of wagering on UCLA. In addition, 70% of the spread bets on that game were made on UCLA, and 62% of moneyline bets were on UCLA. That may not seem significant, but I would suggest it bears further investigation in light of the current scandal-fueled skepticism of the purity of sport and previous exploits such as those of the aforementioned Donaghy. Maybe this is simply a personal or professional agenda, but I’m not alone in wondering about this idea either.
So, consider my voice added to the chorus of those calling for Ed Rush to be relieved of his duties. Send him away with a golden parachute and a pat on the back if you have to, let Rush save face by resigning, just make it happen and happen swiftly. The Pac-12 cannot allow any coach, players, supporters or fans of any program to question or linger on the idea of getting a fair shake from officiating. Perception now becomes reality in the opening of a weblink or reading 140 characters – one coach reportedly won’t schedule Pac-12 schools for non-conference games as long as Ed Rush is still in charge of officiating – and these festering questions tear at the very fabric of Scott’s enterprise and the integrity of the game itself. By their current course of action, Larry Scott and the Pac-12 Conference are failing their very own Mission Statement, specifically Paragraph #3 which states in part, “To adhere to the highest standards of higher education, academic achievement, ethical conduct, sportsmanship …” What Ed Rush did was far from ethical, intended or not, in jest or not, and Scott’s mismanagement of this mess does not live up to those lofty precepts. “Rome” is whatever is in your charge, and Scott needs to put the fiddle down as his house is on fire.
I’ll start by taking a moment to ponder who UCLA will turn to next in their coaching search, seeing that both Brad Stevens and Shaka Smart are staying put – is it just me or is it the UCLA coaching search starting to resemble a Lou Bega song? One, two, three, four, five, Everybody in the car, so come on let’s ride! Perhaps a little bit of Jay Wright is all they need (that’s who I’d hire), or a little bit of Gregg Marshall is what I see (even if he is “Howland The Sequel”), or maybe a little bit of Buzz Williams in the sun (sweating)? In any event, most UCLA fans certainly didn’t see this mambo coming.
As for last night, the entire East Regional gets the “WHAT WAS THAT?!?” Award for the whole week. Unlike The Rock (not loving the G.I. Joe trailer there big fella), Indiana and Miami disappeared like Charlie Brown Spelling Bee contestants, falling behind from Minute 1 and never looking like the Contenders I thought they were. Kudos to Syracuse and Marquette, but I admit that I begrudge the fact I have to watch that game Saturday. Out West, the game of the night came down to another smart decision by Aaron Craft, leaving the vocal Wildcats contingent with sad faces and the Buckeyes primed to return to the Final Four against a defiant Wichita State squad that gladly accepted the invitation to don a glass slipper. Despite my words pointing to the possibilities, my bracket never even conceived of Saturday’s matchups, so all that is left is hope for today and wonder for tomorrow.
MIDWEST … Don’t sleep on Oregon’s chances tonight; While Louisville has been playing the best basketball in the country as of late, I remember not so long ago when Louisville looked like one of the least intelligent ranked teams in America, and “Russdiculous” Smith was prone to late game gaffes, and Oregon brings a Top 10 Defense to the party that has made many an offense this year look stupid … Old foes clash again as Coach K faces Izzo and Duke’s guards try to find a way over and through a rugged Michigan State frontline. I’m still surprised at the lack of chatter behind Duke’s chances tonight, most observers seeing the battle in terms of Blue Devil finesse vs. Spartan physicality, codewords for “pretty offense vs. tough defense”, but I think tonight will be decided by how well Duke defends Michigan State’s Gary Harris and Adreian Payne, two burgeoning offensive options for which Coach K will have to find answers …
SOUTH … All the excitement about the “Dunk City” Match between Florida and Florida Gulf Coast – which has inspired everything from intra-state bragging rights to t-shirts and trademark battles – has overshadowed what I think will be the most potent matchup tonight, Kansas vs. Michigan. I have the Wolverines advancing, as I think Trey Burke is the best player remaining in the tournament, but Jeff Withey may have something to say on Kansas’ behalf. One other interesting tidbit, speaking to the potential bias of local media, is that most of Detroit’s scribes have picked Kansas to win, while most of the nationally-based media has gone with Michigan … Not to end this by being a Debbie Downer, but I think FGCU’s run ends tonight, the thought of which carries a tinge of sadness. I think the Eagles’ John Enfield has gone about the business of coaching basketball in the right way: finding athletes, drilling them on certain precepts of sharing the ball and being aggressive, building their trust and letting them loose. Basketball’s version of the jogo bonito, my sincere hope is that this style and tempo are more than a mere fad, and that enterprising teams like FGCU and VCU (even if their approach is more defensive, it’s still a move in the right direction) can help college basketball back from the brink of tedious wrestling matches with their attractive, positive and to date successful styles. I just think Florida is on a mission, and while they present some of the same characteristics as FGCU’s bested foes Georgetown and San Diego State, they have more talent across the board than either team and will be able to handle increased tempo in stretches that the fallen could not. Either way, I expect we’ll all be winners for watching.
A quick look at tonight’s action in the East and West Regional:
EAST … Miami will face Marquette tonight without their 6th man and occasional Hungry Hungry Hippo Reggie Johnson, who underwent a minor surgical procedure on his knee and won’t be available until the Final Four, if the Hurricanes make it that far. Johnson missed time earlier this season with a thumb injury, Miami going 7-2 in his absence. Advancing to their third consecutive Sweet 16, it’s just Marquette’s dumb luck that the East Region was the only bracket that played to seed (1 through 4 in the Sweet 16), and will share the Washington, DC Verizon Center court with three other bona fide Final Four threats. Tonight, Miami has enough athletic guards and wings to throw at Vander Blue and the rest of Marquette’s outside-in attack , so I think Miami still has enough to overcome the Fighting Buzz Williamses (or maybe the “Sweating Buzz Williamses” is more appropriate), who I could see advancing to the Final Four out of any of the other bracket … Tonight’s marquee game is a rematch of the 1987 NCAA® Division I Men’s Basketball Championship Final between Indiana and Syracuse. While most of the faces have changed (Jim Boeheim keeps plugging along), I expect the same outcome for both this game and this season, with Indiana continuing their March to Atlanta. Tom Crean’s Hoosiers have enough athletes and shooters to deal with the puzzle presented by Syracuse’s active and trapping 2-3 Matchup-zone, starting with Victor Oladipo, who I think has been the best player in the country all season. Also, look for Indiana’s “Swiss Army Knife” Christian Watford to operate in the high post and create shooting and driving opportunities for his teammates as the Orangemen’s zone collapses on the ball. Syracuse has the proverbial puncher’s chance if they Can hit their threes, but will have to play better than they did in their Round of 32 win over a California team that kept rejecting the glass slipper …
WEST … By remaining seeds alone, it’s the red-headed stepchild of the four regionals, so pervasive is the concern over the “sexiness” of these games at the Staples Center or lack thereof compared to the other regionals. Not only is it really easy to say that “The” Ohio State’s matchup with Arizona is the real “Regional Final”, it’s all too easy to say that you can’t sleep on the Wichita State–La Salle game either. But make no mistake, the four teams that played the best basketball last week in this regional have advanced to the West Regional Semifinals. Ohio State has won their last 10 games and might be as hot as any team not named Louisville, even as they needed some Aaron Craft heroics to overcome Iowa State. Arizona’s on-again, off-again affair with defensive intensity is definitely “on” again, having held two of the best shooting teams in the country to well below their season shooting averages. There will be no secrets in this game, as OSU’s Thad Matta and Arizona’s Sean Miller worked together at two schools and basically try to do the same things in the same methodical way: defend the paint, limit opponents’ fast-break opportunities, rebound well at every position without sending every player to the glass, and take care of the ball while moving it around to create shot opportunities instead of depending on isolation. I think the Wildcats actually have more talent and depth than the Buckeyes, and if Arizona can impose that talent edge (especially on the interior) with a partisan crown behind them in Los Angeles, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Arizona playing for a Final Four berth on Saturday … The nightcap features two teams that would be hailed as the “plucky underdogs” had they not been overshadowed by the Florida Gulf Coast Phenomenon. Don’t be fooled however, Wichita State looks every bit the part of a high-seed, high-major team, going 10-deep with athleticism, quickness and a “play angry” mindset that swept favored Pittsburgh and Gonzaga teams off the court with brutal efficiency. La Salle’s four-guard lineup has the quickness and athleticism to match, if not the depth or overall size, and like their opponent will fight for 40 minutes. These Explorers, a self-described “Rags to Riches to Rags” program and the lone Atlantic-10 survivor, will look to repeat the feat of conference brethren VCU’s 2011 run from the First Four to the Final Four, and the West Region is tailor-made for such hijinks, if they can avoid being Shocked tonight.
Some observations on the Round of 64 while I ponder changing my name to “Nicky Flash” … because it rhymes …
What matters more in the NCAA® Division I Men’s Basketball Championship: Offense or Defense? On one hand, eight (8) teams scored 80-plus points (all of whom won their games), and over half of the games (23 of 36 so far) were decided by double figures or more. On the other hand eight (8) teams scored less than 50 points, all in losing efforts, and four (4) games were played in the 50s or below by both teams – I still think the Over-Under number for such games is Eight, but right now I’m leaning toward the Over. Nevertheless, my answer is that Defense matters more in the earlier rounds, when effort and pluck can fall a giant, and Offense asserts itself in the later rounds as the talent level rises, the pressure intensifies, and teams with more ability to create and convert scoring opportunities survive and advance, which is why I favor teams like Indiana, Louisville Florida, Duke, Michigan and Gonzaga to challenge for the NCAA Title … Early kudos to the Atlantic-10 Conference (6-0 so far) and the Big Ten (6-1), comprising roughly 1/3rd of the remaining field between them. Meanwhile, mocking derision to the Big (L)East (3-5), with only Louisville, Syracuse and Marquette still standing, the deepest cut of all No. 2 seed Georgetown – losing for the fifth time in the last five NCAA Tournaments on the first weekend, to a double-digit seed, while being no lower than a No. 6 seed – who fell 19 points behind a Florida Gulf Coast team that I, in this very space, told you would give the Hoyas everything they could handle. I also think the Mountain West, the RPI #1 rated conference, hasn’t lived up to that billing, although San Diego State now has a great chance of getting to the Sweet 16 now that John Thompson III has left the building …
While I’m mentioning Georgetown, I’m as much a fan of KenPom.com and the efficiency analyses as any other basketball nerd, but watching several KenPom All-Stars get punched in the mouth the last two days – Wisconsin (ranked No. 8 by KenPom as of Thursday), Pittsburgh (10), Georgetown (13), St. Mary’s (19) Missouri (20), New Mexico (21) and Oklahoma State (24) all exited stage left to lesser ranked opponents, five of them by double digits – only reaffirms my belief that the Madness is more than what advanced statistics can show you. Good tools for evaluation, yes, but not a panacea for divining winners and losers, as there is no substitution for watching games and teams in volume …
Weirdest game of the last two days has to be Villanova-North Carolina, in which both teams showed why they were middling seeds despite their collection of talent. Similar to the Illinois-Colorado and Kansas St-La Salle games, where 15-20 point leads were overcome, only for the team that lost that lead to go one and win in all three cases, yet unlike the other two games, Carolina came out ahead by screwing up less than ‘Nova, instead of making winning plays down the stretch. Even so, the way Kansas looked yesterday in beating Western Kentucky by seven, North Carolina has more than a rock and a sling shot … Speaking of, is it really necessary to say the full name of North Carolina’s “James Michael McAdoo” every time someone mentions him during a game? This is right up there with announcers saying “The National Football League” every time they can when “NFL” suffices, as well as text message spam, pot holes, and bran muffins. I mean, it’s not like anyone’s going to confuse the kid with his cousin Bob, who stopped playing professionally 20 years ago … With four of their five starters either freshmen or sophomores, Colorado is going to be a terror in two seasons assuming all of them stay. Just wasn’t to be this season, yesterday showing the inexperience and impatience that has plagued them since last season, when they made a habit of grabbing leads then pulling a “Buffalo Swoon,” letting teams back into games. Yesterday, the Swoon came first against a talented but equally unpredictable Illinois team, who I don’t think is long for this tournament with Miami hitting on all cylinders … While I’m at it, can we just call the Tuesday-Wednesday “play-in” games (apparently a term that’s too politically incorrect) the “First Four”, then call the Round of 64 (which itself is a clunky construct) the “First Round”, and Round of 32 the “Second Round”? Players, coaches, fans, even the CBS and ESPN talking heads can’t keep it straight. Let’s stop trying to force it, and end the silliness and ongoing confusion, as no one I know calls each round by the terms the NCAA prescribes …
I’ll spare an exhaustive examination of my bracket, although it’s doing quite well (Thanks for asking!) with 15/16 Sweet 16 picks still alive (Thanks for nothing Wisconsin, don’t forget the parting gifts backstage), and the only pick I really regret making was trusting Frank Haith’s Wild and Wayward Missouri Tigers to hold their water against Colorado State … Thursday’s winner of the “WHAT WAS THAT?!?” Award is Montana and their 34-points-in-40-minutes outburst, so dreadful that I thought about giving them Friday’s “WHAT WAS THAT?!?” Award as well, but that will go to Kansas State and their last play against La Salle, punctuated by Bruce Weber’s feeble (and unrewarded) attempt to call timeout with 1.3 seconds left as he watched his point guard Angel Rodriguez drive into No Man’s Land behind the basket … Honorable Mention to Ole Miss’s Gunner Extraordinaire Jordan Henderson, who started the game against Wisconsin shooting 1-13, and yet kept shooting, scoring 17 of his 19 points in the second half and pulling his Rebels away from the Badgers, prompting notice from Basketball Royalty about his obvious Green-Light status … Is it just me, or has “The Rock” Dwayne Johnson’s agent been working overtime the last year? He’s too large a human being to be that ubiquitous if you ask me, dude looks like he’s pushing maximum muscular density and that he might disappear like a Charlie Brown Spelling Bee contestant if you pricked him with a pin … Meanwhile, New Mexico, the word is “Beagle” …
Gonzaga’s game against a Wichita State squad that fears nobody goes one of two ways: Either a.) they’re still stuck in first gear and get run off the court like Pittsburgh did, or b.) the 6-point win over Southern serves as a wake-up call and they play much closer to their ceiling in ushering the Shockers back to Kansas. There’s not much in between for the ‘Zags as I see it … Should a.) occur, I see Wichita State advancing past the Ole Miss-La Salle winner and well-positioned for a Butler-esque run to the Final Four … Did I say that St. Mary’s was the “First Four” Team Most Likely To “VCU”? Clearly I meant La Salle, must have been a typo or something … Arizona, to borrow a new cliché, Is What It Is right now, for better or worse. They rebound well for a team that doesn’t prioritize the offensive glass, preferring to send more players back on defense, which can be stifling at times. They are too loose with the ball and miss too many of the good shots their offense creates, compounded by times when shot selection wavers. Mark Lyons is not your typical point guard, and really isn’t the best distributor on the team (That would be Nick Johnson). These Wildcats tend to play up and down to the level of their competition, lack a killer instinct, and are prone to long scoring droughts as well as having high “spurtability”. But on Thursday Sean Miller’s charges handled with ease a Belmont team that was a popular Cinderella candidate among media and amateur bracketologists alike, should eliminate a plucky but undermanned No. 14 seed Hahvahd team and advance to the Regional Semis where the Wildcat-friendly confines of Los Angeles’ Staples Center await. Sure, only one game in, but the No. 6 seed to me looks as deep, balanced, dangerous and capable as anyone else in the West Regional, and I’m not the only one, just ask the guy who announced the game for CBS … As for UCLA, was that Ben Howland’s Bruin swan song? An embarrassing 20-point loss to a talented but inconsistent Minnesota team notwithstanding, how does THE Premier Program west of the Mississippi find itself in the NCAAs with seven scholarship players? The answer to that question – between mid-season departures and recruiting issues too curious and lengthy to examine here and now – is why I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a change in Westwood soon …
With another Round of 32 slate that provides several absorbing encounters, the type of matchups that routinely make this round my favorite of the NCAA Tournament, so many burning questions remain: Is Colorado State’s five senior starters and rebounding prowess (#1 rebounding margin in the country) enough to impede Louisville’s March To Atlanta? Will Oregon be able to score more than 60 points against a Saint Louis team that looked every bit the Final Four Darkhorse in dispatching New Mexico State? Can Memphis impose their quickness and athleticism on a Michigan State built to absorb such play like a sponge? Will Creighton have better luck against this year’s Tobacco Road foe (Duke) than in their loss last year to a Tobacco Road foe (North Carolina)? Does any sort of “welcome” await Roy Williams in Kansas City against his former Kansas program, or will Hell continue to hath no fury as a Jayhawk scorned? Can Michigan withstand VCU’s “Havoc” defense, or will Trey Burke cause more havoc than VCU can handle? Is Cal’s Pac-12 POY Allen Crabbe enough against Syracuse’s Match-up Zone? Will the winner of Ohio State-Iowa State have to score 100 points? Does Butler win their Marquette rematch, or do the “Fighting Buzz Williams” exact revenge for Maui? Can Temple and the Best Player You Haven’t Seen Enough Of Khalif Wyatt be the fly in Indiana’s Ointment? Can Minnesota keep it close against Florida, and if so, can Florida find a way to win such a game? Can I possibly eat any more nachos?
With apologies to Karen Carpenter, We’ve Only Just Begun.
Mere minutes before March Madness begins anew …
Chicken wings marinating? Check.
Assorted chips, dips, popcorn and desserts at the ready? Check.
Sodas & beers in fridge? Check.
Appropriately attired with expandable-waist clothing? Check.
I’m officially ready for the first Thursday of the NCAA® Division I Men’s Basketball Championship.
Before I get to anything else, this is my actual bracket, which if recent history is any indication, will be in ashes by Saturday evening. True Confession: In filling it out I was only able to pick 9 of the 32 Second Round games with any sort of initial certainty, while the rest required extensive research, game tape review, and in a couple of instances, a turn of Rock-Paper-Scissors with myself (don’t ask). In other words, I feel your pain. One thing you’ll notice below is many more teams in the Final Four and Championship mix and fewer Mid-Majors that actually fit the Cinderella profile. Without further ado …
Championship Contenders – Unlike last year, when I had six potential Champions, and thought there really was only three throughout the year until the conference tourneys (Kentucky was 1 of the 3), I think any one of nine (9) teams this season can win it all, and have thought so all season long. Since the expansion of the NCAA field to 64 teams in 1985, this is the highest amount of legitimate contenders I can recall; However, only three times in that span has the Champion been lower than a No. 3 seed. As such and despite the depth of this year’s field, all 9 teams below are Nos. 1-3 seeds. In order of more to less likely:
- Indiana
- Louisville
- Duke
- Miami
- Florida
- Kansas
- Gonzaga
- Ohio State
- Michigan St
Darkhorses – Although each of these teams has a fatal flaw (then again this season, who doesn’t?) that I believe will prevent them from winning a National Championship, here are 10 darkhorse candidates to reach the Final Four and possibly the Title Game. Each team below has abundant senior leadership and contribution, good-to-great guard play, is highly efficient offensively and/or defensively, and performs at least one aspect of the game that causes opponents problems at a very high level, whether it’s sharing and taking care of the ball, causing turnovers, offensive rebounding, blocking shots, defending the 3-pointer or hitting their free throws. Plus, they all have potentially advantageous draws, or winnable match-ups with higher seeded teams in the earlier rounds. Many of these teams should collide either with the Contenders listed above or with each other (Michigan-VCU, New Mexico-Arizona, Marquette-Butler) in the Round of 32, so by the end of the weekend we should know who has emerged from this pack:
- Georgetown
- Marquette
- New Mexico
- Michigan
- St. Louis
- Wisconsin
- VCU
- Butler
- Arizona
- Creighton
Potential Sweet 16/Elite 8 Cinderellas – In today’s college basketball landscape, this is a shrinking demographic. No longer do teams like Gonzaga, VCU, Butler, Creighton or Saint Louis fit this profile, as they’ve gone from the hunters to the hunted. Every one of the seven (7) Mid-Major teams listed here are still flying under the radar, and all have a star player you may not have heard of, but professional scouts know exactly who they are. Rest assured, you and their opponents will soon know them as well:
- Wichita State
- Belmont
- Bucknell
- St. Mary’s
- La Salle
- South Dakota State
- Davidson
Underachieving or Underseeded “Stepsisters” Capable of a Deep Run – These are the “LSU 1986/1987” teams, in reference to Dale Brown’s double-digit seeded 1986 (No. 10 seed) and 1987 (11) Tigers squads that reached the Final Four and Elite Eight respectively. Like those Tigers, these teams all a.) come from a High-Major conference (and hence aren’t really “Cinderellas”, but rather like the Stepsisters), b.) lost 8 or more games (7 of the 10 have lost 10+ games), c.) are seeded No. 8 or worse, d.) have already proven capable of beating top teams, while staying with others for 40 minutes, and e.) despite lacking a certain cohesion, are very talented and have difference-makers that can heat up and win games. Basically, most of the Nos. 8-9 seeds fit this bill and most if not all of these 11 teams have the talent to challenge for a Final Four berth:
- North Carolina
- Pittsburgh
- North Carolina State
- Missouri
- Villanova
- Colorado
- Iowa State
- Minnesota
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- California
Feast or Famine – High ceiling and low floor, their patterns are less discernible. These are typically Nos. 3-7 seeds that rely heavily on underclassmen, have suffered curious losses, and/or have otherwise dangerous match-ups in their first games. Survive those however, gain some confidence and rhythm, have some talent emerge out of slumps or step up into larger roles, and much more is possible for these five (5) squads:
- Syracuse
- UNLV
- Oklahoma State
- Memphis
- San Diego State
Tom Petty Teams (“Freeee … Free Falling!”) – Syracuse would have been included here had they not made the Big East Conference Tourney Final, and yet still might belong here considering the potential distraction from recent reports of ongoing NCAA investigations. I gave their talent and coaching benefit of the doubt. Normally, Tom Petty Teams are trending downward due to inconsistency, key injuries, drastic changes in performance from earlier in the season, player unrest, suspension or benching, or off-court distractions. Only a few this year are heading in the wrong direction without much potential for recourse, and even so, could surprise:
- UCLA
- Illinois
- Cincinnati
“I Have No Idea What to Make of This Team” Teams – I really don’t. Not for a lack of trying either, although I have all but one of them (Kansas State, playing in Kansas City) losing their first game, so we’ll see if I’ve pegged them right or not:
- Kansas State
- Notre Dame
- Colorado State
- Temple
- Oklahoma
Upset Picks That Probably Won’t Happen – Everyone likes to suss out a potential Cinderella, seeing that picking the right upsets will be the key to winning their tourney pool; Remember that just because many of these teams could beat their higher seeded opponents in the Round of 64 or beyond, doesn’t mean that they actually will. Unlike the potential Cinderellas above, most of these double-digit seeds have bad matchups and should play to their seed (i.e., lose, although it says something that I’ve included three No. 15 seeds). Stats Guru Nate Silver tends to agree; he calculates that all the teams below except Akron have less than a 25% probability of winning their first game, so don’t approach them to don the glass slipper:
- Akron
- New Mexico State
- Montana
- Valparaiso
- Harvard
- Northwestern State
- Iona
- Florida Gulf Coast
- Pacific
And Now … Five Fearless Archetypal Predictions …
“First Four” Team Most Likely to “VCU” … St Mary’s. Of the four teams that survived the “First Four” in Dayton, St. Mary’s is the only team that has the talent (Matthew Dellavedova, get to know him) to fend off four more teams before Atlanta. LaSalle has a number of shooters and quality coaching, and a potential path in the West Region that could open up if teams like Ole Miss (Wisconsin) and Pittsburgh (Gonzaga) get frisky, but they don’t have the frontcourt nor the overall height to match up with eventual high seeded opponents like St. Mary’s does. It is unlikely though, with Michigan State potentially looming in the Round of 32, a game that would be played in a suburb of Detroit. What VCU did in 2011 is just so remarkable, it’s not only difficult to see it happening this year with either St. Mary’s or LaSalle, but anytime soon for that matter.
Juggernaut No One Is Predicting Much For … Duke. Seriously, it’s true. Almost every talking head I’ve seen in the last four days has Duke losing before they even get to the Elite Eight (which they are slated for as a #2 seed), and only one talking head I remember – CBS’s Steve Lappas – has them going to the Final Four. Not even Dukie Vitale has them in the Final Four. More than curious for a team that a.) is coached by a Hall-of-Famer, and 4-time NCAA Champion, b.) spent six (6) weeks ranked #1 this season, c.) was hands down the best team in the country in Nov & Dec, d.) is ranked #1 in the NCAA’s RPI, e.) has Ryan Kelly back from a foot injury and f.) is as deep and talented as any team not named Indiana. I came THISCLOSE to putting them in the Title game, I just think Louisville with a healthy Gorgui Dieng would win a potential rematch in the Elite Eight in Indianapolis. You know, if it comes to that.
This Year’s “Texas Longhorns 2010 Memorial Shambles Team” is … No One. It would have been Kentucky had they made the tournament. UCLA is only a Tom Petty Team because their second-leading scorer Jordan Adams broke his foot. Could become Syracuse if they lose to Montana, but I don’t see anyone who was spiraling downward entering the NCAAs like that 2010 Longhorn team did.
This Year’s “Kansas Jayhawk Memorial Second Round Upset Departure Team” is … Georgetown, who has had a tendency to lose early since making the 2007 Final Four, will get as much as it can handle from a plucky No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast, and will probably get the ziggy against the San Diego State-Oklahoma survivor, despite Otto Porter. I’d hear arguments for Ohio State, who I just don’t trust aside from Point Guard Extraordinaire Aaron Craft and who will have their hands full with the Notre Dame-Iowa State winner, and for Florida as well, who haven’t won a game decided by single digits all year, but I think both of them play to or beyond their seeding.
Is There a Potential “Butler” or “George Mason” This Year? … Maybe. For a Mid-Major team that could come from seemingly out of nowhere and find itself in the Final Four or Title Game, I submit for your approval, the Billikens of Saint Louis. Hard to justify that idea when they are the Atlantic-10 Champions and a No. 4 seed, but they certainly have the requisite patina, earned from last year’s painfully close Round of 32 loss to Michigan State, the departure (and subsequent death) of former coach Rick Majurus, and a deep, senior-laden squad that plays with a boulder on their shoulder. Current Interim Head Coach Jim Crews has surely done enough of a job in his time at the helm to remove that interim tag. Wichita State could fit this bill if they can get past Pittsburgh (I doubt it), and St. Mary’s certainly fits as discussed above. All three teams have the prerequisite potential pathways to the Elite Eight that are ripe with upset possibility by both themselves and other teams to clear their way; Sometimes better to be lucky than good. At some point though, they will have to manufacture an upset against a heavily favored high seed, which aside from Saint Louis, I can’t foresee materializing.
As to my Final Four and Champion …
At some point, talent has its say. I might be a little blinded by their dazzle, but the most talented team I saw all season was Indiana, and I believe they will capture their sixth NCAA Title over what some are saying is the best defensive team in over a decade, the Louisville Cardinals. Rounding out the party is a dangerous Florida squad that will push the Hoosiers to the limit in their Final Four match, and the party crasher in Atlanta (can’t have a party without one) will be Everyone’s Eternal Cinderella No More, Gonzaga. Yes, the ‘Zags are a No. 1 seed, but so few think they will get this far, so in a sense it will be an upset when they do.
Bart Scott just called, he can’t wait either.
Bobby True 