(Note: This is the second in a series of posts on the Final Four teams of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship™. Today we examine the Wisconsin Badgers, the No. 2 seed from the West Region, with the next preview of Connecticut posting late tonight.)
While munching on some late night cheese, here are Four Things we know about the West Region Champion, Wisconsin:
1.) Wisconsin is Old School. I mean, really “Old School.” It starts with Head Coach Bo Ryan, of whom assistant coach Greg Gard claims “wouldn’t know how to run any apps on his phone”, and as one friend told me, is 66 “going on 181”. His basketball takes the “fun” out of “fundamental” – or maybe it puts the “mental” in it, I’m not entirely sure – and at times his teams look like B-reel from the production of the movie “Hoosiers.” His offense is called “The Swing”, and not because he likes to dance. Ryan developed his offense in the 1980s while head coach at Division III University of Wisconsin-Platteville , winning three (3) NCAA Championships at that level during his tenure. It’s a “continuity” offensive scheme that combines facets of John Wooden’s “UCLA High Post” sets, Tex Winter’s famed Triangle offense that helped Phil Jackson win 11 NBA Titles, and the “Flex” offense favored by the likes of Gary Williams’ 2002 NCAA National Champion Maryland squad and Jerry Sloan’s NBA Utah Jazz teams, all of which have their roots in 1950’s offensive strategy and were popularized in the 1960’s and 1970’s. To suggest it is methodical would be an understatement: Ryan’s design relies on spacing, “valuing” the ball (basketball-speak for “Don’t turn it over”) and continuous, repetitive player movement patterns, mostly comprised of serial cuts through the key, accompanied by screens and followed by passing, passing and more passing between five relatively interchangeable players to create mismatches and open shots. All of which tends to work the shot clock and requires discipline, patience and efficiency. In the modern era of basketball analytics and advanced metrics where the mid-range jump shot has become the enemy of basketball efficiency, the residue of Ryan’s design can be a jump shot with the shot clock winding down; According to data from Synergy Sports, Wisconsin entering the Sweet 16 had generated approximately 54.9% of their field goal attempts (FGA) from jump shots (highest of the Final Four teams). To Ryan’s credit, the bulk of those jump shots (approximately 71%) were the three point shots favored by stat nerds, and Wisconsin is #14 in the country in 3P made with 289, driving an offense that ranks #4 in efficiency (AdjO 120.4). So maybe Ryan is not a basketball caveman after all, especially when you consider …
2.) Frank Kaminsky Is the Most Difficult 1-on-1 Matchup in Dallas. With apologies to Kentucky’s future NBA All-Star Julius Randle, and Connecticut’s Mr. Clutch Shabazz Napier, Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky poses the most difficult match up for opposing defenses at the Final Four. Despite being a true 7-footer, the Badgers’ leading scorer (14.1 ppg), rebounder (6.4 rpg) and shot-blocker (1.7 bpg) is one of those relatively interchangeable players perfect for Wisconsin’s schemes on both sides of the floor. Kaminsky is what some refer to as that modern, mobile, “Euro-style” big, in that he’s a good passer (third-highest assist rate [11.8%] and second lowest turnover rate [8.2%] among the Badgers’ rotation), has a versatile post game (58.3% from two) and shoots threes at a decent percentage (37.8%, making 1/game) as well, making him the most effective field goal (eFG) shooter in Wisconsin’s rotation with an eFG of 57.8%. He can post up whoever is guarding him, whether it be a traditional center or a smaller forward, or pull his defender out away from the basket and either shoot over them or find a cutter for a lay-up, meaning Kaminsky is deadly on pick and pop sets. In their Elite Eight overtime victory over Arizona the West Region MVP was practically unguardable down the stretch, scoring 11 of Wisconsin’s last 21 points and producing a 28 pt/11 reb/1 ast stat line with three (3) 3P baskets and 1 TO in 37 minutes, and has upped his scoring average to 18.5 ppg in Wisconsin’s four (4) NCAA games. Barring foul trouble – Kaminsky has only fouled out once all season – expect to see the Badger Big log a ton of minutes this weekend no matter who or what opponents throw at him, alongside the rest of Wisconsin’s starters for that matter since …
3.) Wisconsin Has The Shortest Rotation of the Final Four. Typically, the Badgers go only seven (7) players deep, with only forward Nigel Hayes (17.7 mpg) and guard Bronson Koenig (15.3 mpg) earning significant time off the bench, while their eighth man Duje Dukan only averaged 6.5 mpg in Big 10 conference play (and 4 mpg in their two closest NCAA Tournament wins over Oregon and Arizona). Moreover, they’re the only team in Dallas whose starters collectively average more than 30 minutes per game (31.2, compared to Kentucky’s 28.1 mpg, Florida’s 28.2 mpg and Connecticut’s 28.6 mpg). It may not be as big a factor during the actual games this weekend, with longer commercial breaks during media and team timeouts as well as five (5) minutes more at halftime in NCAA Tournament games allowing more rest for every team, but it does raise questions on Wisconsin’s collective fatigue going into the Final Four, and whether they will be fresh enough at the end to close out games against deeper competition. However, if last weekend’s Final Four berth-clinching win in overtime is any indication …
4.) No One Will Beat the Badgers by Being “Tougher”. Toughness in a basketball setting is a hard thing to quantify. Several attempts to do so with this year’s Badgers fall short when, upon further examination a.) they aren’t the most proficient rebounding team (#134 in the NCAA with a pedestrian rebound margin of +1.6); b.) they don’t defend this season as well as they did in past seasons, a still respectable #45 in AdjD this season, compared to #1 last season and #12 in 2012; c.) they are not the most physically imposing team, essentially playing a three-guard lineup that goes 6’1”–6’2”–6’3” and two lanky “bigs” in forward Sam Dekker and center Kaminsky; and d.) they are not grinding teams down with their tempo (as reflected in KenPom’s AdjT) as in years past, willing to push the ball in transition a bit more and playing 5.5 more possessions per game than they did two years ago – their 2014 AdjT is 64.0 (#287), compared to their 2012 AdjT of 58.5, good for last (#345) in Division I. However, their eFG (53.3) is the highest of the Final Four teams. They hit their free throws, as four of their five starters shoot above 76% and the overall team percentage is 74.1%. They will not get into foul trouble either, #2 overall in fouls per game (15.0) with only four (4) disqualifications (players fouling out) all year. They value the ball as well as anyone in the country: #1 in turnovers per game with a scant 8.1, and #3 in turnover rate at 11.3%. And, six (6) of their seven (7) losses have been by single digits. In short, Wisconsin will not beat themselves. Which renders them exceedingly tough to beat.
In a final bit of irony, Wisconsin’s pack-line defensive approach tries to stop what not only what modern offenses aim to achieve, by clogging the lane and denying open three-pointers, but also by increasing possession length and forcing the contested jump shots they themselves have been so adept at converting on offense. In other words, they actually want to make you work as hard as they do on offense, and beat you at that game. Wisconsin has dictated the terms of the conflict this season by making 30 of their 37 opponents play the way they wanted – only three (3) teams (North Dakota, Michigan State and NIT Champion Minnesota) have broken 80 against them all season – and if they can continue that this weekend, you have to like their chances.
(Note: Today is the first in a series of posts on the Final Four teams of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship™. We will begin with the Florida Gators, the No. 1 overall seed and South Region Champion)
Entering this weekend’s Texas-sized basketball festivities as the clear, even-money favorite to cut down the nets in Dallas (I will not call it “North Texas”, nor “Arlington”, nor the “DFW Metroplex”, for simplicity’s sake, this year’s Final Four is in Dallas), here are Four Things we know about the 1 seed from the South Region, Florida:
1.) Florida is the Most Complete Team in Dallas. Using the word “complete” is somewhat nebulous and elusive to properly define. So this is what I mean by “complete”: Florida has everything you would want in a Championship contender, which is why I had them at the top of my “Contenders” list. The Gators defend as well as anyone in the country; They are the No. 1 ranked team in adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) according to Ken Pomeroy, are No. 3 in Scoring Defense (57.6) and No. 24 in Field Goal Percentage Defense (allowing opponents 39.9% from the field). Florida also has an efficient, balanced offense that can provide scoring at all five positions on the floor, with four starters averaging double figures in points. They also meet every one of Peter Tiernan’s characteristics of a National Champion except for points per game (71.0 compared to 73 or above) as well as passing both of the KenPom comparative ranking (#18 Adj O, #1 AdjD) and numerical output (AdjO 116.1, AdjD 88.5) efficiency tests that each of the prior 11 National Champions passed. You’ve heard the old axiom “Guard play wins Championships”? Florida has Scottie Wilbekin, who is averaging 16.8 points/2 rebounds/3 assists/1.5 steals per game in the NCAA Tournament and only has 2 turnovers in 4 games playing 140 of a possible 160 minutes. All the while spearheading their defense and shutting down the opponent’s main distributor, counting Dayton’s Khari Price and (my main man) Scoochie Smith (5 points combined) and Pittsburgh’s James Robinson (1 point) among his NCAA victims. Florida’s rotation has all the tools, from the natural abilities (size, length, athleticism, quickness) to developed skills such as rebounding (#25 in the NCAA in Rebounding Margin at +5.1), perimeter shooting (rounding up Wilbekin’s 39.6%, three (3) Gators average 40% or more on 3PT) defenders (see above), creators (between Wilbekin and his understudy, super frosh Kasey Hill, Florida’s PGs average nearly 7 assists per game) and depth off the bench in all of those qualities (eight [8] players average 12+ minutes played per game, and they can push their rotation to 9 or 10 as needed). How about the idea that you need 2-3 future first-round draft picks or pros on your roster, as an indication of overall talent? According to DraftExpress.com, Florida only has one current player, Patric Young, projected in the 2014 NBA Draft (#39 overall), but Chris Walker is currently projected as a lottery pick (#10) in the 2015 NBA Draft, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilbekin, Hill and Michael Frazier II make an NBA roster at some point. Finally, Florida mixes talented youth, as freshmen Hill and Walker were rated as Top 10 recruits in their 2013 class by both Rivals and Scout, with loads of experience starting four (4) seniors. So much experience in fact …
2.) Florida is the Most Experienced Team at The Final Four. It’s not just the fact they start four (4) seniors – Wilbekin, Young, Will Yeguete and Casey Prather – as much as they are the most tournament tested team in the entire field. This senior class has been to four (4) Elite Eights, has an NCAA Tournament record of 13-3, played in three (3) SEC Tournament finals (winning 1, this season) and 120 wins overall. Not to mention this isn’t Billy The Kid’s first rodeo either; Head Coach Billy Donovan is in his fourth Final Four and already has two (2) National Championships on his résumé. Aside from this being the first Final Four for all of these Florida players in particular, there is an aspect of “Been There, Done That, Bought The T-Shirt” swagger to this squad. Leading us to the third thing we know …
3.) Pressure Will Not Faze These Gators. Florida has won their last 30 (!) games. They went undefeated in the SEC regular season and won the conference tourney. They were a consensus Preseason Top 10 team, spent the entire season in the Top 20 and have been ranked No. 1 in the polls since February 24. Florida won the South Regional in methodical, punishing fashion, winning all four (4) games by double figures (12.25 average point margin) and holding each of their opponents to one of their five worst scoring outputs of the season. They know what it’s like to play with a target on their back, to be the hunted, and they also know what it’s been like to lose big games (losing in their three prior Elite Eight games) before finally getting over last Saturday against Dayton. And, did I mention the four seniors? All that said, the one factor that might alleviate the most pressure for these Gators might just be that …
4.) Florida’s Road to The NCAA Title is Entirely Familiar. There won’t be any surprises awaiting Coach Donovan’s squad in Jerry World, as the Gators have played every other team in the Final Four. Florida beat Kentucky three times this year, and while their last match in the SEC Final was a 61-60 nail-biter, the other two games were won by double figure margins. Yes, the other two teams in Dallas – Connecticut and Wisconsin – beat Florida earlier this season, but it’s important to note a.) both games were on the road at Connecticut’s and Wisconsin’s respective home courts; b.) both losses were close affairs – Wisconsin by 6 in a low scoring win where neither team broke 60, and Connecticut won by 1 at the buzzer thanks to the Huskies’ “Mr. Clutch” Redux himself, Shabazz Napier – that were one-possession games in the final minute; c.) both losses occurred with Florida at less than full strength (Wilbekin, key reserve Dorian Finney-Smith and Chris Walker missed the Wisconsin game due to off-court issues, while Chris Walker also missed the Connecticut tilt, as did fellow frosh and backup point guard Kasey Hill due to a high ankle sprain, especially notable since Wilbekin also injured his ankle late in that loss); and d.) both losses were in 2013. Florida hasn’t lost to anyone else, and hasn’t lost since that game in Storrs on December 2. Florida is also fully healthy, their full roster available to them, on a neutral court and on the hottest of rolls in recent memory.
Bottom line, Florida is primed, Donavan knows the way to winning a title, and knowledge is power. Should Florida lose, it will be because they were outplayed, and not because they were caught unaware of their opponent.
Instead of the ubiquitous and catchy “Elite Eight” or the stodgy “Regional Final”, wouldn’t calling them the “National Quarterfinals” add even more gravitas to the occasion? Just a thought.
With four great matchups ahead, I’ll cut to the chase and tell you who should advance to Jerry World next weekend. In the South, I like Florida to beat Dayton and send the last Cinderella (and my man Scoochie) home, I just think Florida is too athletic, too big, too quick, too strong defensively, altogether too much for the Flyers. Out West, I believe Arizona’s defense (No. 1 in AdjD) and rebounding will outlast Wisconsin’s offensive efficiency (No. 4 in AdjO) in a grinder, first-to-65-wins affair. Tomorrow at The World’s Most Famous Arena, Connecticut’s Garden Party will end at the hands of the Fighting Izzos of Michigan State, who look like they are still warming up. Finally, in the Circle City, Naptown, and home to the NCAA Headquarters, Indianapolis, I think Kentucky will win the Midwest Regional over a Michigan squad that is by far the worst defense remaining and has had trouble closing out their last two games. Along with Florida, these Wildcats of a Bluegrass variety appear to be playing the best basketball of the eight remaining teams, with the two most impressive wins of any contender still standing.
Never mind that Nate Silver agrees with all of that. Defense should prevail in all four matchups. Dallas awaits.
After giving thanks for another two days of Scoochie, and deliberating the merits of the “March Madness Vasectomy” (Heck to the No!), I have more Burning Questions to ask someone, anyone, please …
(2) Michigan vs. (11) Tennessee, Midwest Regional (4:15pm PST) – Will Tennessee become this year’s version of the 2011 VCU squad that barnstormed their way from the First Four to the Final Four? Despite the seed difference, is this game really the virtual coin flip that the various prediction machines from FiveThirtyEight to the oddsmakers in Las Vegas believe it to be? Can Michigan keep up its torrid three-point shooting (21/45 for 46.7% in two NCAA games) against one of the better defenses left in the field (#15 in AdjD according to KenPom and allowing 33% 3FG in two NCAA games)? Will Tennessee continue to score 80+ points against the worst remaining defense in the Dance (Michigan is #95 in AdjD). Does Michigan have an answer for Tennessee’s Top four leading scorers, the “Four Jays” (Jordan McRae, Jarnell Stokes, Josh Richardson and Jeronne Maymon), or is Michigan’s plethora of three-point shooters (Five Wolverines in their current 8-man rotation average 39.3% 3FG or higher) the unanswerable question of this matchup? Will this game be the offensive outburst yesterday’s Wisconsin-Baylor game promised but failed to deliver? Will I actually get to eat the popcorn this time?
(3) Iowa State vs. (7) Connecticut, East Regional (4:27pm PST) – Can the highest scoring offense left in the tournament (Iowa State averaging 89 ppg in two NCAA games) continue to blitz opponents offensively with the services of Georges Niang and his broken foot? Can Shabazz Napier be the second coming of Kemba Walker and lead the Huskies to the Promised Land once again? Or has Shabazz met his match in the equally clutch Cyclone lead guard DeAndre Kane? Will Connecticut enjoy a virtual home court advantage in Madison Square Garden, 136 miles from their campus in Storrs? Can the survivor of this game actually have a real chance of beating the Virginia-Michigan State winner? Is there any better nickname left in the NCAAs than Fred “The Mayor” Hoiberg” (Scoochie is an actual name)?
(4) Louisville vs. (8) Kentucky, Midwest Regional (6:45pm PST) – In what is undoubtedly the marquee matchup of the night – only the fourth time in the NCAA history the previous two champions have met in the Dance – can this battle of the Bluegrass State live up to the hype? Which history is stronger: Louisville Head Coach Rick Pitino’s 1-5 record against John Calipari’s Kentucky, or the fact that the Defending NCAA Champion In this case, Louisville) has won the prior three such meetings between successive NCAA champions? Will this rematch of their regular season tilt end up much like Arizona-San Diego State did last night? Or will Cool Hand Luke Hancock (I think that’s his full legal name) come to the rescue again with cold-blooded three pointers at the most crucial times as he has for Louisville in their previous four NCAA games (dating back to last year’s Final Four)? Have Kentucky’s precocious Freshmen come of age and live up to their #1 Preseason ranking, or will they revert back to the incoherent, NBA auditioning squad that resulted in 10 losses? Will Indianapolis be red or blue tonight? Will St. Elmo’s run out of shrimp cocktail?
(1) Virginia vs. (4) Michigan State, East Regional (6:57pm PST) – Will Virginia prove they are worthy of more respect as the ACC Champion and #1 seed than most in the media have given? Is Michigan State, the presumptive MSSM favorite, just getting warmed up? Is Tony Bennett’s pack line defense an unsolvable rubik’s cube (#1 in the country with 55.5 ppg allowed and #5 in AdjD)? Will Virginia’s Evan Nolte have to come off the bench, hit a couple of threes and give Virginia Another 48 Hours like he did in their Round of 64 game against Coastal Carolina? Who on Michigan State will score their career high this time around, with Adreian Payne’s 41 against Delaware and Branden Dawson’s 26 against Harvard already on the board? Is Michigan State even more underseeded than Louisville, or will the MSSM Media Darling, the Fighting Izzos, prove the NCAA Selection Committee had it right?
Ponder these Burning Questions about Thursday Night’s South and West Region Sweet 16 matchups while I wonder how you can spend 4-plus years at Kentucky and not earn a communications degree …
(10) Stanford vs. (11) Dayton, South Regional (4:15pm PST) – Can the plucky Flyers, the one true mid-major-style Cinderella left in the field, keep their run going against what is arguably their least talented opponent to date? Can Stanford solve Archie Miller & Dayton’s version of the pack-line defense when the Cardinal couldn’t quite solve Arizona and Archie’s brother Sean’s version of the pack-line defense in two losses this season (scoring 57 and 66 points)? Can Dayton figure out a way to stop Dwight Powell in the high post and contain Chasson Randle in their modified triangle offense? With this tournament run does Johnny Dawkins become leader in the clubhouse to replace Mike Krzyzewski at Duke, or is that still Harvard’s Tommy Amaker? Will Stanford make a 3-pointer tonight (0-9 in their 60-57 win Kansas) and if not, will it matter (Stanford was 8-15 from 3 in their 58-53 Round of 64 win over New Mexico)? Will either of the two lowest scoring teams left in the Sweet 16 score more than 60 points, a result neither team has accomplished in their two wins? What kind of a name is “Scoochie“? Scotch-Romanian? Or Comanche Indian?
(2) Wisconsin vs. (6) Baylor, West Regional (4:47pm PST) – Will Wisconsin be able to handle a bigger, more athletic version of the Oregon team they beat last Saturday? Can the length and athleticism of Baylor’s 2-3 zone defense stifle Frank Kaminsky and the rest of Wisconsin’s shooters like they did Creighton and Dougie McBuckets (to the tune of 40.0% from the floor, 20.8% from 3)? Will Bo Ryan “Swing” offense flame out before the Elite Eight (1 Elite Eight in 12 prior consecutive appearances) again or will they swing on through to Dallas? Speaking of Dallas, can the potential of a Green & Gold Final Four 100 miles from their campus propel the Bears through the West Regional? Will the first team to 80 win? Or will it be 90, between two of the Top 6 efficient offenses in the country? Considering that likelihood, how much popcorn will I go through watching this game?
(1) Florida vs. (4) UCLA, South Regional (6:45pm PST) – Can this game resolve the eternal question of which is more important, offense (UCLA is 12th in the NCAA in both points per game [81.8] and in offensive efficiency [117.4 points per 100 possessions] according to Ken Pomeroy) or defense (Florida allows the 3rd fewest ppg [57.5] and has the 2nd most efficient defense [88.9 points per 100 possessions allowed] in the country)? What will Florida do to slow down Kyle “Slo-Mo” Anderson, who for my money is the toughest individual matchup and best triple-double threat left (averaging 11.5p/7r/5.5a in UCLA’s two wins) in the Dance? Or will Billy Donovan be flummoxed once again by his team’s performance in the post-game interview as he was after the tight Round of 64 win over Albany? Conversely, does UCLA have an answer for Scottie Wilbekin – a potential answer to the “Slo Mo” question himself – or will they take some defensive possessions off as they did against Tulsa and Stephen F. Austin?
(1) Arizona vs. (4) San Diego State, West Regional (7:17pm PST) – Is Arizona really the favorite that both The Power Rank (65.8% probability of winning tonight’s game) and FiveThirtyEight (72.63% probability) believe them to be, not only to win tonight’s game but to reach the Final Four (both have Arizona as having a greater than 40% probability to make it to Jerry World next week, among the Top 2 likeliest teams along with Florida)? Will Sean Miller still be “The Best Coach never to reach the Final Four” after this year, or does he get to pass down that backhanded sobriquet to potential Elite Eight opponents Bo Ryan or Scott Drew in person? Does history repeat itself in tonight’s rematch with Nick Johnson and “Year of the Freshman” fave Aaron Gordon once again leading the Wildcats to victory, or is the Aztecs’ Dwayne “Tram” Polee II (who did not play in their 69-60 loss to Arizona in November, but has averaged 10.6p over the Aztec’s last 15 games and is their 2nd-leading scorer in the tournament) Steve Fisher’s “secret weapon” tonight? Or is that surprise a 1-3-1 defense to trap the Wildcats’ ballhandlers on the perimeter, deny post entry passing and otherwise slow down Arizona in the half court? Will Arizona fans ever buy another LG product?
Bobby True 
