Hello Friends … Gerry Lester Watson, Jr., or as we all know him, Bubba Watson, has six (6) PGA titles on his résumé, two (2) of which are Masters’ Green Jackets.
Ponder that thought for a moment.
Mixed in among the garden variety tour stop wins such as the 2011 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines and the Northern Trust Open at the Riviera in February of this year – I shouldn’t scoff, each of his winners’ paychecks were $1M-plus – as well as a runner-up finish at the 2010 PGA Championship (losing in a playoff to Martin Kaymer), are two Major Championship wins at the famed Augusta National Golf Club. Having never missed a cut in six (6) appearances at Augusta, the languid lefty seems to save his best for the second weekend in April.
In another numerical coincidence, six (6) of the last 12 Masters Champions have been left handed. One of those lefties, the three-time Champion Phil “Lefty” Mickelson, suggested early in the week what several in the golf media had already been lamenting: that Tiger Woods would be missed, Woods having to sit out the First Major of the Season for the first time in 20 years due to recovery from recent back surgery. Turns out Lefty missed himself, failing to make Friday’s cut by 1 stroke. Same fate awaited Sergio Garcia, Luke Donald, and several other former champions and would-be heirs to Tiger’s throne. Defending Champion Adam Scott started brightly, finishing Thursday’s 1st round one stroke off the lead but blew up on Saturday and was a virtual non-factor on Sunday until he was in the Butler Cabin presenting the Green Jacket that 2012 Champion Bubba had handed him last year.
All of which contributed to the sense that would be an odd, somewhat lackluster Tradition Unlike Any Other. Saturday is traditionally “Moving Day” at Augusta, but the usual leaderboard shakeup never fully materialized, as Bubba led after Saturday as he did after Friday, and most of those on the leaderboard besides Scott stayed within striking distance going into Sunday, adding to the relative lack of drama. Yet, the Masters never lacks luster when a former Champion wins another Green Jacket. Despite an early stumble on the 3rd Hole with a bogey to fall two (2) strokes back of the streaking 3rd Round co-leader Jordan Spieth (who would birdie four [4] of the first seven [7] holes Sunday) and Matt Kuchar, one had a sense Bubba would get it going when on the 240-yard, Par 3 4th Hole, he took dead aim at the pin, carried the front bunker that was guarding the back right hole location and landed it three (3) foot away for an easy birdie putt, the first of what would be his four (4) birdies on the Front Nine.
This Toooooonament was decided where it rarely has been on Masters Sunday, on the 8th & 9th Holes. Bubba birdied both holes, turning a two-shot deficit into a two-shot lead that he would never fully relinquish, while the other contenders – from the young guns Spieth and Jonas “No, I’m not the UN Weapons Inspector” Blixt (two [2] of four [4] Masters Rookies who finished in the Top 10 along with Kevin “Walrus Jr.” Stadler and Jimmy “Dyn-o-mite!” Walker), to the Georgia Tech homeboy Kuchar, to Bubba’s homeboy Rickie Fowler (whose Sunday outfit was worse than his finish) to the old fogies Freddy “Boom Boom” Couples and the Most Interesting Man In The World, Miguel Angel Jimenez – had trouble finding the greens, making putts and gaining strokes on those two closing Front Nine holes (only Blixt made any ground, birdieing the 8th). Those like myself, who usually check in on Sunday as the last few groups hit the famed “Amen Corner” of Holes 11-13, would have missed the plot altogether.
Finishing as the youngest runner-up in Masters history, the 2013 PGA Rookie of the Year Spieth played solid if not spectacular golf on Sunday’s Back Nine, eight (8) pars in addition to his bogey on the 12th, but it was clear after bogeys on the 8th & 9th that he needed spectacular to regain the lead, and by the time he plunked his tee shot at the most famous Par 3 in golf into the water, what to that point had become a match-play situation on Sunday was all but decided. The modest 20 year-old from Dallas just couldn’t generate the opportunities to apply any more pressure on Bubba, left to chalk up his first time contending for one of Golf’s Majors as a “fast track learning” experience.
Bubba tried to make things interesting coming home, taking what some thought was an unnecessary risk on the 15th & giving rise to the ghost of the Eisenhower Tree with his tee shot on the 17th, both of which he eventually saved for par, but during the last two hours on Sunday there was really little doubt about who would emerge as the 2014 Masters Champion. Down the homestretch, the “small-town guy named Bubba” played the confident, steely and gritty championship-winning golf – a birdie on the 11th and eight (8) pars on the Back Nine – of someone who has been there before.
Which he had.
[Location: Jerry World, Deep in the Heart of Texas]
[Scene: Inside a cavernous temple to sporting entertainment, filled with 80,000 spectators of various interest and fanaticism. At the center of the arena floor, ten young men in loose clothing are running back and forth on a 94’ x 50’ swath of painted hardwood, one of them bouncing a small brown leather sphere, all attempting to engage in a game known as “basketball.” Cut to the early moments in the second half of the contest, which for all intents and purposes had become a stalemate …]
It was not the best of times, and for most ardent but neutral observers of this NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship™, it was closer to the worst of times. The second half had unfolded like an arm-wrestling match, lots of pulling and pushing that never really got anywhere. Over the second half’s first eight minutes, the Kentucky Wildcats had outscored the Connecticut Huskies 8-6, but Connecticut continued to cling to the lead at 41-39. The teams had combined to shoot 4-20 from the field with more turnovers (5) than made baskets. Video of this game wasn’t going to be sent to the Basketball Hall of Fame in Springfield for posterity. It did provide a lesson in resiliency however, as both teams took turns shifting the momentum until the clock (thankfully) ran out of time.
Connecticut’s lead was like a rubber band all game long, stretching and contracting but never breaking, as the teams then traded mini-runs – Connecticut scored the next seven (7) points in under a minute of game time to extend their lead to 48-39, and Kentucky responded with an 8-0 run over the next three (3) minutes of their own to get back within one at the under-8 media timeout, 7:54 to go – but one got the sense Kentucky would never get over the top. Every time Kentucky fought back and had the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead in the second half – by my count 15 such opportunities, the last one coming down 47-48 with 7:29 left when Aaron Harrison missed a three – they failed to bridge the gap. Only Sisyphus would understand the absurdity of their toil.
Looking back at the four themes I had identified before the game in this very space, it became clear why Connecticut prevailed 60-54 to win their fourth National Title …
- Rebounding – Connecticut actually won the overall rebounding battle, 34-33, and held their own on the offensive boards as well, limiting Kentucky to 10 offensive rebounds while corralling 26 defensive rebounds.
- Tempo – Connecticut clearly dictated the terms of this conflict, keeping the score in the 50s and holding Kentucky to 31.9% from the field. Connecticut had nine (9) steals and harassed Kentucky ballhandlers for 40 minutes, as the Harrison twins combined for seven (7) turnovers and appeared to be bothered by the quickness of Connecticut’s “Batman and Robin” tandem of Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright even when they didn’t turn the ball over. Napier and Boatright also combined for 36 of Connecticut’s 60 points, while the “Wonder Twins” combined for 15.
- DeAndre Daniels – He didn’t quite have the same level of production that he did in Saturday’s win over Florida (8 pts/6 reb/2 blk), but Daniels’ impact was clear to see regardless. Connecticut built a 15-point lead with him on the floor in the first half, but once he was whistled for his second foul with 5:41 left and Connecticut up 30-15, Kentucky ’s first half comeback commenced with him on the bench, reducing the lead to four (4) by halftime. Daniels stayed out of foul trouble in the second half, and although he never seemed to regain his rhythm offensively, Kentucky’s frontcourt endured tough sledding throughout due in large part to Daniels’ defensive efforts.
- Kentucky in the Post – Dakari Johnson and Alex Poythress were relatively stifled by the Huskies’ frontcourt (9 pts/9 reb/2 blks in 42 minutes combined) and Marcus Lee was a non-factor (no stats except for 1 foul in 6 minutes). Julius Randle never really got it going either, 10pts/6reb/4ast on only 7 shot attempts, and in retrospect Kentucky’s guards did not feed Randle enough of the ball.
Other than those four, there was a fifth factor that favored Head Coach Kevin Ollie’s team and was huge in final outcome, free-throw shooting: Kentucky was 13-24, stirring the echoes of John Calipari’s 2008 Memphis squad that went 12-19 from the FT line in the National Championship and lost to Kansas, while Connecticut was a perfect 10-10, which not only affected Connecticut’s ability to hold onto the lead, but surely impacted Kentucky’s defensive strategy in the last three minutes as precious seconds ticked away with the ball in Napier’s hands (an 86.9% FT shooter) and the Wildcats afraid to foul him. So it was that Kentucky’s version of the Fab Five met the same end as the previous one.
Final Four MOP Napier and his Hungry Huskies ended their season where 350 other teams wanted to be, standing on the podium, atop the college basketball’s highest peak with everyone else beneath their gaze. Everyone else has already moved on to the bittersweet refrain of “next year”, and while Kentucky as well as the Dukes, Arizonas and Kansases of the world are full of promise and hope, many other contenders for 2015 can look to Connecticut, the Preseason #18/19-ranked team whose eight (8) losses before the NCAAs merited them a No. 7 seed, and see that despite whatever setbacks occur in their journey, all’s well that ends well.
What About DeAndre Daniels aka Albert The Butler? If you’re just tuning in, no, I’m not talking about the forthcoming “Justice League” movie, I’m posing a allegorical query as to whether Connecticut’s two fantastic guards will be able to overcome Kentucky and the best freshmen class in 21 years. If this were a movie trailer, the gravelly voice-over might intone “Tonight, in Dallas, worlds collide as a seven (7) and an eight (8) seed meet to decide who will control the fate of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship™, cats and dogs playing together on the same court, mass hysteria!”
First, let’s look at some of the various prediction machines: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEighty sees it a virtual coin flip, Connecticut calculated to have a 50.1% probability of winning to Kentucky’s 49.9%, and calls it a “true toss-up” due to the injury to Kentucky’s Willie Cauley-Stein. Entering the Final Four, Power Rank had Kentucky with a 19.3% win probability, and Connecticut with a 14.5% chance. KenPom has Kentucky rated #9 overall, and Connecticut #10, while his “log5” predictor going into the Sweet 16 had Connecticut (ranked #11 of 16 teams) and Kentucky (#12) as having a 1 in 44 chance of winning the National Title. Then there is the prediction machine actually called “Prediction Machine”, a gambling-centric simulator for which you have to register to get their free pick (I won’t reveal who they select, but I will say they are more decisive in their straight up pick). Of course, there’s also the Las Vegas “prediction machines”, the oddsmakers, the consensus of which have Kentucky as a 2½ point favorite. Jeff Sagarin’s scoring based “Predictor” model has Kentucky as roughly a ½ point favorite (0.59 points difference between the two teams). ESPN’s college basketball “experts” favor Kentucky by an 8-4 margin, but all agree it will be a close game ultimately decided by five (5) points or less. Of course, what is a major sporting event without having an animal make a pick, Ron Burgundy’s dog Baxter, keeping it in the family and choosing the Huskies. Finally, we have BobbyTrue.
My “model” is much less mathematical, and yet slightly more scientific than a gut feeling, or picking mascots (in which case I would totally pick “wild cats”, assuming they are feral and appreciably larger than your average housecat, over a sled dog such as a “husky”). This game will boil down to a few central themes, based not only on what happened in Saturday’s games, but each team’s natural proclivities developed over 39 games.
- Rebounding – Both teams won their respective total rebounding battles on Saturday, with Kentucky’s margin +5 and Connecticut’s margin +1. Connecticut’s chances will significantly depend on whether they can keep one of the top rebounding teams in the nation off the offensive boards better than they did against Florida (who had a 12-5 edge in offensive rebounds).
- Tempo – Putting KenPom’s adjusted tempo stats aside (which show Kentucky plays at a slightly faster pace), Kentucky was able to get Wisconsin to play at their preferred pace and win a game played in the 70s. Meanwhile Connecticut – once they fell down 16-4 – were able to control the tempo with their defense (holding Florida to 36.1% from the field after the Gator’s opening run, and 0-9 from 3P over the final 39:50 of the game), often forcing Florida deep into the shot clock to initiate offense. Batman (Napier) and Robin (Boatright) will have to similarly disrupt Kentucky’s Wonder Twins from initiating offense in half court (the Harrisons combined for 17pts/6reb/6ast and only 2 TOs in 65 minutes) and prevent transition opportunities that the Wildcats’ athleticism thrives upon. If this game stays in the 60’s or below, I believe that will definitely favor Connecticut.
- DeAndre Daniels – Connecticut’s “X-Factor” never left the court Saturday, igniting Connecticut’s first-half comeback with two (2) threes and putting up a 20/10 line in 40 minutes for which Florida had no answer. He’ll likely have to approach that level of production and impact for Connecticut to win tonight.
- Kentucky in the Post – After the injury to Cauley-Stein against Louisville, Kentucky has had their own “X-Factors” step up in his absence, as the combination of Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee, and Alex Poythress have more than held their own in the post. Kentucky outscored Wisconsin by 22 in the paint Saturday – Johnson, Lee and Poythress combining for 22 points and 15 rebounds – and according to ESPN Stats & Information have attempted almost three-quarters (74%) of their shots in the paint in each of their last two games. These three, along with the ever-steady Julius Randle, will have to provide more of the same tonight against an undersized Huskies’ frontline.
In the end, I think the preseason rankings had it right after all, as the length and athleticism of Kentucky’s talented freshmen – who, if they score 70 points combined tonight, will have collectively scored more in the NCAAs than 1992’s Michigan Fab Five did – will prove too much for the Huskies. Specifically, I think Kentucky’s length on the perimeter will bother Connecticut’s guard tandem, and force the game into a tempo Connecticut would not prefer. Then again, I’ve been only slightly better than a coin-flip myself, correctly predicting 37 of 62 (59.6%) potential team advancements in my bracket, which was in ashes as soon as Florida lost Saturday night. If you’re like me, don’t feel so bad though: only 0.016% of entrants in the ESPN Bracket Challenge picked a Kentucky-Connecticut final. Peter Tiernan’s various championship tests took a beating as well. I’m going with Kentucky 74, Connecticut 68, in a tight game that for once won’t require an Aaron Harrison three pointer in the final seconds.
(Note: This is the fourth and final in a series of posts on the Final Four teams of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship™. Today we examine the Kentucky Wildcats, the No. 8 seed and survivor of the Midwest Region.)
For a team that was projected to be in Dallas, it has been a long and winding road for these bluest of the Bluebloods. Here are Four Things we know about the 8 seed from the Midwest Region, Kentucky:
1.) Kentucky is By Far The Most Talented Team in Dallas. Forget the fact they were seeded eighth in the Midwest Region – this was not your run-of-the-mill eight seed. You can look at the recruiting services like Scout or Rivals and see class after class of 5–star recruits make their way to Lexington. Or you can look at DraftExpress.com projections for the next two NBA Drafts and see six (6) projected First Round picks currently on Kentucky’s roster (and two more that won’t be on the team until next year). Either way, the Wildcats have been loaded with high school All-Americans and future professionals every year since Head Coach John Calipari took the job five (5) years ago, and this season’s version is not different; It includes seven (7) players that were rated by the scouting services as 5–star players, six (6) of them freshmen from the 2013 class alone, and three (3) of which are expected to be drafted by the NBA this coming June. You can tell how deep they are by seeing Marcus Lee, a 5–star freshman who didn’t even play in 15 of the Wildcats’ 38 games, shake the dust off and just dunk all over Michigan last Sunday (10 points on four [4] dunks and a fifth putback). Normally a team would miss a stalwart defensive presence like Willie Cauley-Stein, who injured his ankle early in their Sweet 16 game and might not be available this weekend, but Lee kept the Wildcats above water against Michigan until his teammates could take the team ashore. Kentucky actually starts five freshman, and while the comparisons to Michigan’s Fab Five are obvious, to this team’s credit they haven’t been as ubiquitous and self-promoting as they could have been. Starting with Julius Randle, the Brahma Bull coming back to his pen (the 2014 Final Four at AT&T Stadium is only 30 miles away from his high school in Plano,TX), this freshman and future lottery pick is focal point of Kentucky’s offense and the best rebounder on a team that led the nation in offensive rebounds and was #2 overall in rebound margin (+9.8). The Wildcats’ leading scorer (15.1) and rebounder (10.7) has continued his steady play in the NCAAs, averaging a double-double (15.5ppg/12rpg) in four (4) NCAA games and finding other ways to make the difference (such as his 6 assists against Wichita State). Kentucky’s backcourt is their own version of the Wonder Twins, Andrew and Aaron Harrison, who both average over 31 minutes per game and are Top 2 in assists (combining for 5.8 per game, over half of Kentucky’s season total) and 3P% (both shoot around 35%). James Young is their primary shooting threat on the perimeter, making over two (2) threes a game as their second leading scorer. Dakari Johnson is their nominal fifth starter, averaging only 13.7 minutes per game but has had to step up in Cauley-Stein’s absence along with Lee. This Fab Five, along with forwards Lee and Alex Poythress off the bench, has the chance to do what Michigan’s Fab Five could not, and in many ways their run to the Final Four has been equally impressive …
2.) The Wildcats Have the Three Most Impressive Wins in these NCAAs. The Midwest Region bracket was going to be brutal for whomever survived it. As it came to be, Kentucky’s run to the Final Four was likely the toughest in NCAA Tournament history. Round of 64 opponent Kansas St wasn’t chopped liver, Kentucky leading for the last 32+ minutes but never able to fully pull away until late in the Battle of the Wildcats. Yet that game was merely the amuse bouché, with three main courses on the way. First up was undefeated No. 1 seed Wichita State, the Shockers becoming the first team in NCAA history to start 35-0, and what ensued was by many accounts the best game of these NCAAs as the gutty mid-major in the reversed role of the favorite traded punches for 40 minutes with the basketball bluebloods from the Bluegrass State before losing their first and only game this season. As if that wasn’t enough, the Defending National Champion and bitter in-state rival Louisville Cardinals were awaiting them in the Sweet 16. In the matchup of the last two National Champions, Kentucky spotted Rick Pitino’s Cardinals an 18-5 lead in the first half before storming back behind their Wonder Twins (Andrew posting 14p/5r/7a and Aaron hitting the go-ahead three-pointer in the final minute), vanquishing their arch-enemies for the second time this season. For their efforts, the Michigan Wolverines and their #1 rated offense stood between them and a trip to Dallas, but Aaron Harrison once again providing the late heroics with a late three-pointer in winning their third barnburner in a row. Along the way, Kentucky became the only team in NCAA Tournament history to beat both the Defending Champion and the previous season’s Finalist on their way to the Final Four, and according to KenPom beat three of the Top 10 teams in basketball. Surviving that gauntlet require these Wildcats to find the winning formula at the end of games …
3.) No Team Has Closed Out Games Better In This Tournament. Coffee is for closers (NSFW), and no team has drank more coffee in this tournament than Kentucky. That certainly wasn’t the case for most of Kentucky’s regular season, losing 10 games after starting out as the consensus Preseason No. 1 ranked team. But it all started to come together for these kitties at the SEC Tournament, losing in the final to Florida but coming back from 16 down with 18:09 in the second half to only lose by one, 61-60, sparking a fire that hasn’t slowed since. Against Kansas St they pulled away late, turning a two point lead with 15:08 to go into a 13-point lead with 0:52 left in the game before staving off a late Kansas State rally for a 56-49 win. In their 78-76 heartstopper over Wichita St, Kentucky was down 69-64 with 4:37 left before ending the game on a 14-7 run. The Wildcats then closed out the Louisville game on a 15-3 run, turning a 7-point deficit with 4:33 remaining into a 74-69 triumph. And against Michigan, once again Kentucky snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, outscoring Michigan 24-17 over the final 11 minutes, culminating in Aaron Harrison’s three-pointer with 0:03 left to send the Wildcats to Dallas. Clearly having to fight Kentucky’s athleticism, massive size inside and length on the perimeter at both ends of the floor for 40 minutes can exhaust even the most resolute opponents. Clearly, that is by design, even if it has taken longer than expected …
4.) Winning Has Become Old Hat For John Calipari. Leading Kentucky to their third Final Four in his five year tenure, Calipari has pretty much done and seen it all. Yet some are saying this team may be the best coaching job of his career, acting as a master psychologist and using the regular season to mold a roster full of all-stars and freshmen auditioning for the NBA into a cohesive team of players who accepted their roles and have excelled in them when it matters the most. The ball movement has become crisp and shot selection has improved accordingly, as during their NCAA run Kentucky is shooting 2.3% higher overall (47.4% compared to a season-long average of 45.1% before the NCAA Tournament) and 7.2% better from three (39.7% compared to 32.5%). Just watching them now compared to earlier this season, defensive transition as well as their overall body language have improved by leaps and bounds. Last year’s team couldn’t get out of their own way, ending the season losing to Robert Morris in the NIT. This year’s team looked to be headed down a similar path, an early flameout in the NCAAs, but as my Grandpa always said, better late than never.
Predicting the games themselves (Florida-Connecticut is at halftime as of this posting, Connecticut up 25-22), I like Florida over Connecticut, pulling away in the second half before Connecticut can muster any late heroics as I just think the Gators will be too much defensively and on the boards for the Huskies. In the second game I like Kentucky in a battle of wills over Wisconsin, as the Badgers will try to clog the lane against a dribble-drive offense filled with superior athletes aimed at penetration and dunks or lay-ups, while the Wildcats will try (and succeed) to maintain their rebounding dominance. Should these games go as my Magic 8-ball told me they would, it would set up an all-SEC Final and a fourth game between Florida and Kentucky, raising the question of whether it is harder, or easier, to beat a team four times in the same season. My guess is harder, but my bet is that it gets done for Florida. My pick at the beginning of this tournament, I’ve seen nothing to justify changing that now.
(Note: This is the third in a series of posts on the Final Four teams of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship™. Tonight we examine the Connecticut Huskies, the East Region Champion)
Cinderella is at the ball in Dallas – well, at least as much of a Cinderella as a No. 7 seed and a program that has won three (3) prior National Championships can be – so here are Four Things we know about the Champion of the East Region, Connecticut:
1.) The Huskies Have the Best Backcourt in Dallas. You know the old axiom “Guard Play Wins Championships” right? Connecticut has the opportunity to prove that true once again with the nation’s (and this tournament’s) best backcourt, Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright. Napier – a consensus first team All-American, AAC Conference Player of the Year, East Region MVP, and as has already been suggested here, Kemba Walker 2.0 – has put the Huskies on his back this season. No rotation player at the Final Four has a higher usage rate (an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor, as determined by a complicated statistical formula) than Napier’s 27.7%, and he leads his team in scoring (18.1), rebounding (5.9 !), assists (4.9), steals (1.7) and minutes (34.9), as well as field goal attempts and makes, 3P attempts and makes, and FT attempts and makes (and FT% among their regular rotation at 86.6%). That makes him Batman in my book. Meaning that Boatright is Robin, a role he has embraced with gusto, filling the stat sheet much like Napier as he is second on the team in assists (3.4), steals (1.5), minutes (32.3), FT attempts, makes, and percentage (again, among rotation players at 79.0%), third in points (12.0) and fourth in rebounds (3.4). Boatright is able to take the reins at point guard when Napier needs a breather, and will take over the mantle as Connecticut’s lead guard next season when Napier takes his talents to the NBA; DraftExpress.com has Napier as a mid-Second round pick. Although neither guard is taller than 6’1”, they are interchangeable on the floor, both weapons in pick and roll or pick and pop situations with other teammates or even with each other, capable of shooting from deep (Napier’s 3P% is 39.9, Boatright’s is 37.7) or driving to the rim as well as being lockdown defenders. Due in large part to their efforts, Connecticut is the best three point (38.9 3P%, #25 in the country) and free throw shooting team (77.4 FT%, #5 overall) as well as the second–most efficient defense (an AdjD of 93.0, good for #10 overall according to KenPom) in Dallas this weekend. Head Coach Kevin Ollie knows that combination is going to win you a lot of games, as much as anyone at the Final Four …
2.) Kevin Ollie May Be A “New” Head Coach But He is Not New to The Big Stage. Ollie was a Connecticut assistant in 2011 when the Huskies won their third National Title under Jim Calhoun. He played for 11 NBA teams in a 13-season professional career, and played in the 2001 NBA Finals with Philadelphia. He also may have a little chip on his shoulder from his college days, having lost as a junior at Connecticut to a Final Four-bound Florida team in overtime in the 1994 Sweet 16, and as a senior the following season to the eventual 1995 National Champion UCLA in the Elite Eight. Ollie is also only the fourth coach in NCAA history to reach the Final Four in their first NCAA Tournament appearance as head coach. While only four (4) of the 37 Final Four coaching debutantes since 1990 have won a Title, Ollie’s mentor Jim Calhoun (1999) is one of them, and the institutional memory that Ollie can tap into instilled by the program’s national titles (1999, 2004, 2011) means Ollie and these Huskies don’t have to take a back seat to any of the other teams – Florida (2006, 2007), Kentucky (8 national titles from 1948 to 2012) and Wisconsin (1941) – at Jerry World. Stars and good coaching are not the only key elements to a title run, often times you need a player to figure things out late in the season …
3.) DeAndre Daniels is the Biggest “X Factor” of the Final Four. Connecticut’s 6’9” junior combo forward is Top 3 on the Huskies in minutes (28.7), points (13.0), rebounds (5.9), blocks (1.4), 3P% (43.2), and FTA (2.5 per game), becoming the third guy in Connecticut’s newfound “Big 3” (Does that make him Alfred the Butler? I’m not sure …) with Napier and Boatright. Saddled with a reputation for inconsistency, Daniels’ production declined across the board (except for rebounds and steals) during conference play, enduring a stretch late in the regular season where he scored in single digits five out of six games and shot 38.6% from the field. He also shot 37.8% in the seven (7) of Connecticut’s eight (8) losses he played, both figures well below his season FG% of 46.9. In the AAC Conference & NCAA tournament play (7 games), Daniels turned his season around and raised his production, exceeding his season averages in scoring (16.0) and rebounding (7.3), and overall FG% (50.0). With his athleticism (7’2” standing reach), steady handle (10.9% turnover rate, lowest among Connecticut’s top 8 in minutes played), offensive versatility (a solid post game and shooting range beyond the 3PT line) and scoring potential (25 games in double figures, six [6] with 21+ points), Daniels will be critical to the Huskies efforts this weekend, but their “Big 3” may not be enough to cut down the nets on Monday either …
4.) Someone Else Will Have To Step Up for Connecticut. Whether it be the sharpshooting Berliner (No, not a jelly doughnut, but a citizen of Berlin) Niels Giffey, or the shot-erasing Amida Brimah (2.3 bpg), or jack-of-all-trades Lasan Kromah (third on the team in both assists and steals), or maybe even understudy guard off the bench Omar Calhoun should Batman or Robin falter, someone is going to have to become a reliable offensive option this weekend outside of the Big 3. If he can find his range in the cavernous AT&T Stadium, my bet is Giffey (pronounced giff-EYE), the German senior who leads the team in 3P shooting at a lofty 49.1% clip, making him the Huskies most efficient rotation player offensively despite being an astonishing eleventh on the team in usage rate (15.1%, eighth among Connecticut’s Top 10 players in minutes played). Brimah and steady yet unspectacular Philip Nolan will also have to be stout defensively and battle on the boards for what is by far the weakest rebounding team (#180 in rebounding margin, +0.4) at the Final Four.
To avoid turning into a pumpkin at midnight, Connecticut has to not just believe but know they belong. They’ve come a long way from a team that was banned from last season’s NCAAs due to academic probation, and the squad that looked like they didn’t want to be on the floor in their first NCAA game, overcoming a 10-point first-half deficit and playing from behind for most of the second half before beating St. Joseph’s in overtime. Confidence can carry a team far; Napier certainly has it, as one of three remaining seniors (along with Giffey and Tyler Olander) from Connecticut’s 2011 Championship team, and the rest of the Huskies should too, knowing they were the last team to beat their opponent Florida this season. Maybe, they can become Florida’s last loss once again.
Bobby True 